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HM pacing question, though it's still kind of early (Read 234 times)


delicate taperer

    Hello RUNNINGAHEAD.com racing experts!  I've got my next HM in 7 weeks.  I know it's a little early to be asking about pacing advice, but I'm just thinking ahead here.

     

    My HM PR was set last September, which was also my last HM.  1:45:00 for an 8:01 pace, holding nothing back.  Yesterday I ran 8.2 miles at 8:15 pace, somewhere between a medium effort and a tempo effort...maybe a 75% effort.  Right now I am running faster and stronger than I was heading into that PR race.

     

    My last race was a 10K five weeks ago (47:36, 7:39 pace, a PR).  I hadn't done any speedwork heading into that race because I was 20 months post-ACL surgery so I was still doing mostly easy runs.  I've since being doing a steady dose of speed workouts, including touching some 800's in the 5:50 pace range.

     

    McMillan puts my current HM time at 1:46 based on my 10K time, but I don't think that's a good indicator given that 10K PR is soft.  Given that I have 7 weeks to keep training and rebuild after knee surgery, does anyone have any thoughts on what I might be able to shoot for in that HM?   Let's assume the knee isn't an issue since I've gotten the "all clear" from my doc.

     

    I have a 5K on Aug 10 and think I have a reasonable shot at a PR in that one (21:23).  There's also a 10K on Aug 26 that I might do.  I guess those races will help answer my question as well.

    proud taperer


    an amazing likeness

      My opinion....McMillan is overly aggressive in most cases and leads to people outrunning their training for the longer race distance.

       

      Assuming you have a good day, the 10K on 8/26 is going to be a good bell weather.  I'd guess from your comeback and recent running you'll be around 7:45 or 7:50 splits for the 1/2.

      Choosing my words carefully has never been my strength I've been known to be vague and often pointless


      delicate taperer

        Thanks, MilkTruck.  I also think I'll be faster in September just because of the weather adjustment.  8:15 pace yesterday was on an 83 degree day.  I suck in warm weather.

        proud taperer

          hey Baboon,   will be very interested to follow you through  your training for next few weeks & upcoming races as our PR times are very comparable.    As Milktruck said, I think that 8/26 10k will give you the best indicator of what to expect for your HM.  Of course there are always  other factors to consider such as: weather, the courses,(flat, hilly, rolling, lots of turns,etc)  taper or no taper, etc... Keep doing what you are doing for the next few weeks & you will do well.  feel free to check out my running log.

            My opinion....McMillan is overly aggressive in most cases and leads to people outrunning their training for the longer race distance.

             

             

            In my opinion this is not one of those cases.

             

            Baboon, I think you are right that your upcoming races will provide you a lot more information. Your fitness is probably s rapidly moving target due you your recovery from knee surgery. I don't even want to make a guess other than to say I think you can run faster than McMillan predicts right now.

             

            And for what its worth I think the half marathon is the distance you can race best off of pure base training. At least it is for me. I have been pleasantly surprised on s few occasions by going into halfs with only a vague idea of a goal and just running by effort.

             

            I am confused by one thing though: if you are 20 months post knee surgery then your last half was also post knee surgery?

            Runners run.


            delicate taperer

              Mike, my last HM was last September, which was before my injury and surgery.

               

              9/16/12:  HM PR

              1/5/13:  Knee injury

              2/5/13:  Knee surgery (acl and meniscus)

              6/16/13:  10K PR

               

              skyedog, thanks!  My upcoming HM is pancake flat.

              proud taperer

              Scooterscott


                Baboon,

                 

                Don't kid yourself, it is not too early to think about pacing!  You give some great info on your recient events/runs but your statement "I've got my next HM in 7 weeks." is sort of vague.  That raises questions for me about is this one HM along the way to another race that is a goal race.  So it comes down to what do you want to accomplish at this Half.  If you are using this as a build up to a full later in the year then your pacing will be different than if this is an all out goal race.

                 

                I'll side with both Mike and MilkTruck in that the race predictors (Like McMillian's) are good guides but only useful to a certian extent.  I'll give you my guess based on a few of the detials you gave and some assumptions.

                 

                You gave your last 10K pace (7:39) and that you have been adding speedwork.  Assuming that your base, or easy milage is pretty much unchanged or slightly increasing as you add that speedwork I would say you could expect to be closer to your 10k pace for the Half than you think.  With that you could look to run 1:40 - 1:44 for the Half if this is a goal race.  Assuming again that your 800's are a good workout at the 5:50 pace (Yasso 800's) you could even think about going faster than 1:40 and if you are really wanting to push it you could be reaching even as fast as the low 1:30's.

                 

                Scott

                  There are a lot of variables here that could impact things (weather, your still recovering etc, the course itself) however, I'll quickly throw in my two cents from what I have read thus far.

                   

                  I think a PR is possible, however, I from what you've provided I don't think you should expect to shave more than a few minutes off of that maybe 2-3 since you are still recovering.

                   

                  You also haven't mentioned what your weekly mileage is.   Given the pace you are running, I would say that for a PR I would probably focus more of my efforts on a strong base.  One day a week of speedwork/tempo runs if plenty for this pace, however, I would place more importance on your base/endurance.   The tricky thing is that as I'm sure you know, you have to be careful not to increase this too rapidly or you are at a significant risk for injury, particulary if you are running most of these miles too fast.   Majority of these runs should be done a slow, comfortable pace.

                   

                  Good luck!

                    Mike, my last HM was last September, which was before my injury and surgery.

                     

                    9/16/12:  HM PR

                    1/5/13:  Knee injury

                    2/5/13:  Knee surgery (acl and meniscus)

                    6/16/13:  10K PR

                     

                    skyedog, thanks!  My upcoming HM is pancake flat.

                     

                    You must have meant 20 weeks, not 20 months past surgery.

                    Well at least someone here is making relevance to the subject.


                    delicate taperer

                      Thanks again for the replies....

                       

                      LedLincoln:  OOPS.  Yeah, I meant I am 20 weeks post-surgery, not months.  Big difference there.  Big grin

                       

                      Scooterscott:  I have three HM's coming up in a span of five weeks (9/14, 9/28, 10/12).  The first and third ones are both goal races.  The middle one I will run easy.  After I get through those three HM's, I'll keep working on my next goal race which will be a May marathon.

                       

                      Adam:  I've been averaging about 50 miles each of the last six weeks.  I ran 175 in June and 240 in July.  Last year I ran 2300 miles and in 2011 (my first year) I ran 1100.  I have no doubts I run some of my runs too fast.  I seem to lack the discipline to keep it slow when my legs feel good.  I'm trying to work on that.

                       

                      FYI, I had an awesome MLR last week.  15 miles at 8:41 avg pace, and it turned out to be a 15 mile progression run.  Started at 9:10 pace and finished at 8:21 pace.  Felt like a rock star after that one.

                      proud taperer


                      delicate taperer

                        UPDATE since I know you've all been anxiously awaiting one...

                         

                        I set a 5K PR two weeks ago on a tough course.  21:13.

                        I set a 10K PR today on a flat course.  43:24 for a 4:21 PR.

                         

                        Soooooo.....three weeks until my flat HM.  What to do, what to do...

                        proud taperer

                          1:37:30

                          Runners run.

                            UPDATE since I know you've all been anxiously awaiting one...

                             

                            I set a 5K PR two weeks ago on a tough course.  21:13.

                            I set a 10K PR today on a flat course.  43:24 for a 4:21 PR.

                             

                            Soooooo.....three weeks until my flat HM.  What to do, what to do...

                             

                            nice work on that 10K !!   as I said before you & I are very close to race times including only a 8 second difference in 5k Pr set this yr by both of us.(21:05 vs 21:13) . Unfortunately been dealing with a hamstring issue for past 3 weeks.  had to skip a 10k last week in which I was shooting for 43-44 minutes & PR.  you finished with your 43:24.   again, nice work!

                              I just took a look at your two recent races and see that on each and every mile in both races you slowed. In the 5k your third mile was 30 seconds slower than your first and in your 10k your last mile was 45 seconds slower than your first. I agree that your fitness is a moving target and is getting better and better but you asked about "pacing" and everyone here keeps talking about finishing times and what the average pace of those times looks like, not actual race pacing. Race pacing is a skill and discipline you need to work on. Despite ever improving fitness, I think if the first or second mile of your half are faster than your average pace for your recent 10k you may find yourself involved in another big fade and leave time on the course. Think about how much you need to hold yourself back at the start of your half. If the fitness is there you will have a good result.


                              delicate taperer

                                xhristopher, I actually have EXCUSES, EXCUSES EXCUSES for those fades in my last two races:

                                 

                                The 5K had a pretty significant hill (for a 5K) in the last mile:

                                 

                                 

                                 

                                In the 10K, I got hit with a terrible cramp in the last mile that I could not push through, hard as I tried.  I've had side stitches before and can deal with those, but this cramp was in the front of my body just below the ribs.  It was agonizing.

                                 

                                Excuses, excuses...

                                 

                                I agree that I need to pace better in my races though.

                                proud taperer

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