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70% Age Graded marathon in 2012 (Read 1740 times)

    I think I'd like to get into the 70s.  currently I sit at 69.58 for the 5K and 68.3 for the 10 miler.

     

    My marathon takes a huge dive down to 59.05 though - so obviously I am better at the shorter races.

      This criticism was addressed in the article. The difference is more than just the outstanding nature of that record.

       

      Yeah.  I think using the top 100 times in an AG in the last 10 years would carry greater validity.  Those devising the calculators would have to work a little harder, though.

      Well at least someone here is making relevance to the subject.

        Yeah.  I think using the top 100 times in an AG in the last 10 years would carry greater validity.  Those devising the calculators would have to work a little harder, though.

         

        Just for perspective: 

         

        http://www.marathonguide.com/Features/Articles/2011RecapOverview.cfm#FinishingTimes

         

        2011 Finishing Times by Half Hour

        Finish Time*Total%Female%Male%
        2:03:02 - 2:30:00 666 0.1% 44 0.0% 622 0.2%
        2:30:00 - 3:00:00 9,205 1.8% 880 0.4% 8,325 2.7%
        3:00:00 - 3:30:00 44,749 8.5% 7,553 3.5% 37,196 12.0%
        3:30:00 - 4:00:00 103,125 19.7% 33,188 15.4% 69,937 22.6%
        4:00:00 - 4:30:00 112,516 21.4% 46,368 21.5% 66,148 21.4%
        4:30:00 - 5:00:00 100,696 19.2% 46,177 21.4% 54,519 17.6%
        5:00:00 - 5:30:00 64,627 12.3% 32,597 15.1% 32,030 10.4%
        5:30:00 - 6:00:00 41,850 8.0% 22,179 10.3% 19,671 6.4%
        6:00:00 - 6:30:00 21,832 4.2% 12,392 5.7% 9,440 3.1%
        6:30:00 - 7:00:00 12,291 2.3% 7,132 3.3% 5,159 1.7%
        7:00:00 - 7:30:00 5,526 1.1% 3,194 1.5% 2,332 0.8%
        7:30:00 - 8:00:00 3,136 0.6% 1,746 0.8% 1,390 0.4%
        8:00:00 - 8:30:00 1,702 0.3% 912 0.4% 790 0.3%
        8:30:00 - 9:00:00+ 1,198 0.2% 628 0.3% 570 0.2%
        9:00:00+ - Total 1,627 0.3% 726 0.3% 901 0.3%
        Total 524,746 100.0% 215,716 100.0% 309,030 100.0%

         

         

        The woman and men have pretty much the same distribution,  the woman's are just shifted back by the 1/2 hour interval.   Goes back to the comment about just how insane Paula's time was. 

         

        If I've got a moment tomorrow, I'll see what I can data I can scrape for at least one age group and compare the top100 avg vs the top 1 time in calculating the Age Grade. 

          If I've got a moment tomorrow, I'll see what I can data I can scrape for at least one age group and compare the top100 avg vs the top 1 time in calculating the Age Grade. 

           

          Yeah, that's the kind of work I was talking about.  Thanks for doing this.

          Well at least someone here is making relevance to the subject.

            Yeah, that's the kind of work I was talking about.  Thanks for doing this.

             

            So I'm ignoring everything I know about statistical design, etc and below are numbers based strictly off of all of the results on:

             

            http://www.alltime-athletics.com/men.htm 

            http://www.alltime-athletics.com/women.htm 

             

            since I don't have access to the marathon guide data (insert comment about open data here) and it was quicker to just use the above rather than write a scrapper. 

             

            Men's Times (Top 2026 with ties) :

             Min. 1st Qu.  Median    Mean 3rd Qu.    Max. 
              123.0   128.3   129.2   128.9   129.9   130.5 
             

            Women's Times (Top 1980 with ties...):

              Min. 1st Qu.  Median    Mean 3rd Qu.    Max. 
              135.4   146.0   147.7   147.2   149.0   150.0 

             

            Of course that's all in decimal minutes. 

             

            What does it say?

            • The top 25% of men's times are within 5 minutes of the fastest time and the other 75% are within 2 minutes.
            • The top 25% of women's times are within 11 minutes of the fastest time and the other 75% are within 4 minutes. 

            What does it look like?

             

            Aka Paula's time is still pretty bad ass relative to all of the other women's..  The fact that those first three dots are all her?  Even more crazy.

             

            Anybody have the source for the actual age grading formula?  I'd prefer not to have to emulate them backwards..

              Never mind,  found the actual factors and a bunch of other interesting comments:

               

              5	0.615
              6 0.6559
              7 0.6946
              8 0.7311
              9 0.7654
              10 0.7975
              11 0.8274
              12 0.8551
              13 0.8806
              14 0.9039
              15 0.925
              16 0.945
              17 0.965
              18 0.9821
              19 0.9936
              20 0.9993
              21 1
              22 1
              23 1
              24 1
              25 1
              26 1
              27 1
              28 1
              29 1
              30 0.9996
              31 0.9983
              32 0.9962
              33 0.9933
              34 0.9895
              35 0.9849
              36 0.9795
              37 0.9732
              38 0.966
              39 0.9581
              40 0.9493
              41 0.9396
              42 0.9292
              43 0.9183
              44 0.9074
              45 0.8965
              46 0.8856
              47 0.8747
              48 0.8638
              49 0.8529
              50 0.842
              51 0.8311
              52 0.8202
              53 0.8093
              54 0.7984
              55 0.7875
              56 0.7766
              57 0.7657
              58 0.7548
              59 0.7439
              60 0.733
              61 0.7221
              62 0.7112
              63 0.7003
              64 0.6894
              65 0.6785
              66 0.6676
              67 0.6567
              68 0.6458
              69 0.6349
              70 0.624
              71 0.6131
              72 0.6022
              73 0.5913
              74 0.5803
              75 0.5686
              76 0.5561
              77 0.5429
              78 0.5289
              79 0.5141
              80 0.4985
              81 0.4821
              82 0.465
              83 0.4471
              84 0.4284
              85 0.4089
              86 0.3886
              87 0.3676
              88 0.3458
              89 0.3232
              90 0.2998
              91 0.2756
              92 0.2507
              93 0.225
              94 0.1985
              95 0.1712
              96 0.1431
              97 0.1143
              98 0.0847
              99 0.0543
              100 0.0231

               

              See:  http://home.roadrunner.com/~alanjones/AgeGrade.html for some interesting commentary / background. 

                 See:  http://home.roadrunner.com/~alanjones/AgeGrade.html for some interesting commentary / background. 

                 

                Okay, that's great info, and shows that at least the WMA age grading is not based on a single outlier's time, but on multiple results and adjustment factors.  Good to know.

                Well at least someone here is making relevance to the subject.


                HobbyJogger & HobbyRacer

                  The WAVA age grade factors I've seen (& used) were in a table by both age and distance -- more handicap for shorter races.

                  It's a 5k. It hurt like hell...then I tried to pick it up. The end.

                    The WAVA age grade factors I've seen (& used) were in a table by both age and distance -- more handicap for shorter races.

                     

                    Yes.  There are tables for every distance - I suppose the table above is for the marathon.

                    DoppleBock


                      I was in my best shape in 2005-2006 - Age 36-37.  SInce then I have done a lot of things other than trying to be fast.  I still only feel limited by how I train and what I am training for, so I still should be able to eclipse my PRs from then - Weight is and always be the limiting factor as to how fast I can run.

                       

                      But that even said - My 10k PR put in a 43 year old is my only PR that gets to 80% the rest are 78-79%.

                       

                      I have not races anything shorter than a marathon for 2 years - I do not see much of that happening this year - But maybe next summer fall when I am 44.  I may give her a go at a 10k in early August 2012?

                      http://a-big-horse.blogspot.com/ 

                      2013 Goals ~ Mar < 3:00, 5M < 29, 10k < 35  

                       

                      DoppleBock


                        Bump

                         

                        I have been thinking about this lately - Both trying to hit my best Vo2 Max and Age graded results

                         

                        http://www.runningforfitness.org/calc/racepaces/rp?metres=10000&hr=&min=35&sec=46&age=37&gender=M&Submit=Calculate

                         

                        I guess this is it (Did they adjust tables, because I thought it was @ 80%)

                         

                        77.7% Age graded

                        59.2 Vo2max

                         

                        Sad as this was a race I died in the 2nd half of the 10k.  I was in shape to run @ 35 flat

                         

                        My Marathon PR was also a poorly executed race for 2:45:58 when I was in shape for low 2:43. 

                         

                        I really have not been interested enough to put the effort to get my speed back to this level since (6 years) - To be fair I have been side-tracked with ultras.

                         

                        I have always wanted to get to >80% age graded and >60.0 Vo2 max. 

                         

                        I think it will be hard this year as I will not be able to get into realistic faster shape until late summer and then I am not planning on any shorter races (All > marathon).  I might be able to fit a 5k (Have not run a serious one since 2005) early August.  I do not think I can get into < 17:03 shape by then.

                         

                        I think I could take a crack at the age graded 77.7 number < 17:57 by August 4th 5k.

                         

                        My goal race for the fall is a technical hilly 50 mile trail race, so this will be part speed work and part getting my weight to a much faster level. 

                        http://a-big-horse.blogspot.com/ 

                        2013 Goals ~ Mar < 3:00, 5M < 29, 10k < 35  

                         

                        DoppleBock


                          A big part of my interest in this is to try and motivate myself to start working on speed again - 2 reasons

                           

                          1)  Running fast is fun

                          2)  Any hook to keep me motivated as I keep getting older is priceless

                           

                          When I was 35 and ran a 2:56:10 marathon weighing 232 = 105.45kg ~ 55 Vo2 max = 5800 MMol of o2. -  I had dreams of weighing 80KG ... 5800 MMol / 80kg = 72.5 Vo2 max.  2 things happened ~ 1)  I realized it was just a math formula and you had to add a factor for lost potential because of inefficiency of stride, so I never realized a lot of the speed from weight loss and 2)  I never came close to 80Kg.  The best races were @ 93 kg

                           

                          93kg x 59.2 = 5500 MMol of o2.

                           

                          Plus I have a belief that all my PRs are targetable ...

                          http://a-big-horse.blogspot.com/ 

                          2013 Goals ~ Mar < 3:00, 5M < 29, 10k < 35  

                           


                          just a simple cat

                            Being over 40 takes a toll.  You have to face your recovery is different, and you can't snap back from off time as quickly as you used to. 

                             

                            Running is stupid

                            DoppleBock


                              Good thing I am only willing to do 1 speed workout a week instead of 3 ... But Yes I started @ 34 YO and I really cannot speak about recovery as much as I seem to injure myself if I even attempt 80% of what I used to do.   

                               

                              Being over 40 takes a toll.  You have to face your recovery is different, and you can't snap back from off time as quickly as you used to. 

                              http://a-big-horse.blogspot.com/ 

                              2013 Goals ~ Mar < 3:00, 5M < 29, 10k < 35  

                               


                              Fast is better than long

                                Blah blah blah

                                 

                                1)  Running fast is fun

                                 

                                Blah blah blah

                                 

                                Yeah Boy!

                                2014 Goals: 2500 miles / sub 2 800m / 4:30 mile / sub 16:30 5K

                                 

                                Give a man a fire and he'll be warm the rest of the night;
                                Set a man afire and he'll be warm the rest of his life.

                                What in the Jehu?

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