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Dallas- Cancelled. Therefore road trip: BCS Marathon (Read 290 times)

    12/7 update: thread title

     

    On Sunday, I'll be doing a marathon (Dallas Marathon), and I've recently confused myself....

     

    Baseline:

    - this'll be 2nd marathon ever

    - done 2 Ironmans though (and a few half marathons)

    - been running / training for +/-13 years

    - don't race often

     

    Reasons for confusion:

    My goal is to run a 3:30 marathon with the possibility of going as low as 3:27 or so

    - I'm in much better shape than 2009 (same marathon in 3:43).

    - ran a 1/2 marathon in September in the heat (80+ degrees) in Hawaii with very little preparation (signed up the day before).  Ran it in 1:43.  Running Wizard says that could translate into 3:35 marathon.  I know I didn't race all out, as I took 'selfie' photos and videos because the race was purely for fun.  I enjoyed the run, and left enough in the tank to enjoy a nice vacation afterwards.

    - ran a 5k on Thanskgiving Day in 20:54.  Running Wizard says that could translate into a 3:21 marathon. (temperature was 25 degrees)

    - the last couple of days, I struggled with a *minor* sinus challenge (cold / allergies / ???)

    - race morning weather prediction: 33 degrees with high humidity and the possibility of ice pellets (depending on whether I look at wunderground or weather .com)

     

    Assuming it's 33 degrees (daytime high of 40 degrees), humidity > 70%, and not icy, what should I do?

    Any advice?  / Help?

     

    I'm still leaning toward 3:30 (to go for a 13 minute, 30 sec/mile PR), but could be convinced to push harder or pull back.

    Thanks,

    2014 Goals:

    #1: Do what I can do. <DOING>

    #2: 365 Hours training <NOPE, INJURED>

     

       

      Assuming it's 33 degrees (daytime high of 40 degrees), humidity > 70%, and not icy, what should I do?

      Any advice?  / Help?

       

      Can't advice but that weather should be a non factor unless there's significant wind, and I am a cold weather wimp most of the time.

        3:30 sounds reasonable.  5ks are not always great predictors.  The biggest challenge I see is your mileage.  If you had been doing 50-60 mile weeks I would say go for low 3:20s but 35 mile weeks do not usually translate into your best marathon performance.

          Assuming it's 33 degrees (daytime high of 40 degrees), humidity > 70%, and not icy, what should I do?

          Any advice?  / Help?

           

          Go for it!  Marathons in Texas are a total weather crapshoot, and your chances of getting another one soon in the 30's is somewhere between slim and none.  Dallas betrayed me last year with mid-60s and high humidity.  I'd trade for your day all year every day and twice on Sundays!  Go for it!

          - Joe

          We are fragile creatures on collision with our judgment day.

            Can't advice but that weather should be a non factor unless there's significant wind, and I am a cold weather wimp most of the time.

             

            Yes, I agree.  The weather shouldn't be an issue unless the ice occurs over night prior to the race.

            I mentioned the weather to compare it to the Thanksgiving weather we had when I did my 5k race that 'predicts' the 3:21.

            (Last year it was hot and humid)

            2014 Goals:

            #1: Do what I can do. <DOING>

            #2: 365 Hours training <NOPE, INJURED>

             

               

              Go for it!  Marathons in Texas are a total weather crapshoot, and your chances of getting another one soon in the 30's is somewhere between slim and none.  Dallas betrayed me last year with mid-60s and high humidity.  I'd trade for your day all year every day and twice on Sundays!  Go for it!

               

              I was there last year ('12) and limped home a poor performing half marathon without thinking of that high humidity.

              The year before ('11) we had all out rain at 37 degrees.

              2014 Goals:

              #1: Do what I can do. <DOING>

              #2: 365 Hours training <NOPE, INJURED>

               

                 

                I was there last year ('12) and limped home a poor performing half marathon without thinking of that high humidity.

                The year before ('11) we had all out rain at 37 degrees.

                 

                Yeah, I didn't run it in '11, but that sounds rather nasty.  37 degrees and "all out rain" is a miserable experience on any run, let alone a marathon.  I've done Dallas 2x, Houston and Austin.  None of them were very good weather days, so I've sworn off Texas marathons and now turn my eyes ever northward for my best chances of a good performance.  However, if you get a lucky weather day on Sunday, you should definitely not squander the opportunity, IMHO.

                - Joe

                We are fragile creatures on collision with our judgment day.

                  Thanks Joe, Happy & FlatFoot.  Very helpful.

                   

                  As we get closer to race morning, the weather forecast becomes a little more predictable.  Or, I guess I mean that I can begin to believe it better.

                   

                  Right now in Dallas (Wednesday @ noon), it's 75 degrees outside.  Beautiful day today!

                  Tomorrow morning, a cold front is moving in.  By tomorrow evening, there'll be rain and ice pellets with a nightime low of about 30 degrees.

                  Friday: daytime high of 43 degrees with a 90% chance of rain / ice pellets (nightime low: 27 degrees)

                  Saturday: daytime high of 39 degrees with a 20% chance of rain / snow (nighttime low: 27 degrees)

                  Sunday (Race Day): daytime high of 41 degrees (3pm), with 28 degrees at 6am and 32 degrees by noon.... with a 30% chance of snow!

                   

                  FWIW, snow / ice in Dallas is not the same as snow / ice up north.  The city isn't prepared to handle it.

                   

                  At least I have a hotel about a 1/2 mile from the start line.

                  Sounds like wonderful race morning conditions Smile.

                  2014 Goals:

                  #1: Do what I can do. <DOING>

                  #2: 365 Hours training <NOPE, INJURED>

                   

                    Doh!  I really hope you don't have any snow or ice to contend with.  The temperatures sound great (maybe just a wee cold, but now we're just being perfectionists)!, but if you have ice or snow on the ground to deal with, or any kind of strong wind, that will make for tough sledding, to use an ironic metaphor.  You may remember last year when we had that "slime" on the ground and on/under the leaves for a good part of the early part of the run (presumably due to the high humidity and maybe there was a light rain the night before?).  Bad footing like that just wears a person out -- so definitely we are going to hope against any kind of nasty precipitation for you.

                    - Joe

                    We are fragile creatures on collision with our judgment day.


                    I'm back!

                      3:30 sounds reasonable.  5ks are not always great predictors.  The biggest challenge I see is your mileage.  If you had been doing 50-60 mile weeks I would say go for low 3:20s but 35 mile weeks do not usually translate into your best marathon performance.

                       

                      +1. 5k times don't translate to anything with that kind of mileage.

                       

                      Good luck!

                         

                        +1. 5k times don't translate to anything with that kind of mileage.

                         

                        Good luck!

                         

                        But KC is an IronMan, so the endurance is there wouldn't you say?

                         

                        Lived in Dallas for a few years out of college (Texas Tech), so know very well that half inch of snow can shut down that city, and if they are anything like Myrtle Beach folks you may not even have a race to worry about.  Good Luck

                           

                          But KC is an IronMan, so the endurance is there wouldn't you say?

                           

                           

                          There is a difference between having the mental moxie to battle through and finish an Ironman, and having the muscular strength to maintain  pace predicted by a 5k time to an entire marathon.

                          Know thyself.

                           

                            In 30 hours, the temperature in Dallas dropped 50 degrees. (79* down to 29 degrees)

                             

                            2 days away from the race.

                            In Dallas, we're having ICEMEGGADON right now.

                             

                            I may have to find my ice skates, and I may be able to beat the 3:30 goal time.  This Canadian kid can still remember how to skate, me thinks. Smile

                             

                            In all seriousness, though, I think the race may be cancelled / postponed / delayed.  Following the ice fall, the temps will be below 32 degrees until Sunday at about noon.

                            2014 Goals:

                            #1: Do what I can do. <DOING>

                            #2: 365 Hours training <NOPE, INJURED>

                             

                            mab411


                            Proboscis Colossus

                              Oh man, I forgot about the "metro PCS Dallas Marathon Formerly the Dallas White Rock Marathon" this weekend!  Man...I am so, so sorry for you guys and gals, including the race organizers, having to deal with this weather!  Sad

                               

                              My highly unqualified advice is, you're good for 3:30, see how you feel a little past halfway, and you might be able to push closer to 3:25.  I ran my goal marathon a couple weeks ago in similar temps (with a stiff headwind on one section of the out-and-back course), and nailed my goal time of 3:20.

                               

                              Notice I said "similar temps," though...we had nothing like the sheer nastiness that I would imagine will be on the ground Sunday morning.

                               

                              I ran Dallas last year, and it was a disaster.  Main culprit was stupid pacing - didn't adjust for the awful humidity, among other things.  And yeah, just remembered that "slime" on the ground.

                               

                              The good news is, if they're keeping it the same as last year, the post-race area is inside the Convention Center.  That was kind of a nightmare in terms of my wife finding me afterwards (mainly in getting from the finish line to the reunion area and dealing with some rude workers), but wow, I would have killed for such a setup after the race I ran two weeks ago.  Stupid here didn't pack any kind of extra layers or blankets in my drop bag and just about froze in my sweaty gear while waiting for my wife to finish.

                               

                              It's also good news that your hotel is so close to the race.  At least you won't have to stand around for long, pre-race, or more significantly, deal with Texas drivers on ice.

                               

                              Anyway, be careful on the course Sunday!

                              "God guides us on our journey, but careful with those feet." - David Lee Roth, of all people

                                In all seriousness, though, I think the race may be cancelled / postponed / delayed.  Following the ice fall, the temps will be below 32 degrees until Sunday at about noon.

                                 

                                Probably a cancellation or delay would be a mercy!  I don't think I would even bother showing up if there were a chance I'd be trying to run on slick roads.  Not worth it.

                                - Joe

                                We are fragile creatures on collision with our judgment day.

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