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Marathon training program, how much can one improve? (Read 786 times)

    I've looked up the running calculators, the race time predictors but I haven't found the one thing that interests me most at the present time. How much can a new runner possibly improve after an 18 week Marathon training program which peaks at 65 miles per week. I would have to be a better runner in 18 weeks than I am now, but I wonder how much better. Anybody have some projections?

    "The drops of rain make a hole in the stone, not by violence, but by oft falling." - Lucretius


    The Greatest of All Time

      This is an impossible question to answer based on your information and your log entries. Plug your current 10k PR time into the race time predictor and see what it spits out. I see that race was just a couple of weeks ago, so I imagine a race time predictor would be close based on your current level of fitness. But this assumes that you put in the miles and training. In other words, the race time predictor is merely a prediction of your potential based on your recent 10k time not a guarantee. When do you plan on starting this 18 week program? If you're really a new runner, just keep running and you will get faster just from running more. And if you're interested in improving, what are you measuring against? Have you done a marathon in the past? What was your time? How long ago was it? If you have never done a marathon before then this is a question that cannot be answered if you have no benchmark to compare an improvement to. In other words, improvement over what?
      all you touch and all you see, is all your life will ever be

      Obesity is a disease. Yes, a disease where nothing tastes bad...except salads.
        For argument sake, the race calculators predict if you run a 10k in 1 hour and you are fully trained to run a marathon you can run it in XXX. I am wondering, yes I run 10k in one hour today but in 18 weeks what could I do it in. It would have to be faster but how much? the race calculators don't venture there for some reason, perhaps it just isn't predictable.

        "The drops of rain make a hole in the stone, not by violence, but by oft falling." - Lucretius


        Hawt and sexy

          I improved by one hour in 6 months from Steamtown '06 to New Jersey Marathon '07, but I capped out at more than 65 mpw. So I guess a person that capped out at 65 mpw would improve by less than an hour. There really is no calculator for this though. It truly depends on the definition of new runner and other variables.

          I'm touching your pants.


          A Saucy Wench

            It really depends on where you currently are and how much the fitness gains will come. For example when I did my first marathon if I had done a 10K the first week of training it would have probably been around 1:20 (or worse) which would be a HM of nearly 3:00 and a marathon of 6:15 (using McMillan) I was woefully out of shape. By the middle of the program I did a HM in 2:20 which is a huge improvement and predicted a 4:55 marathon. I got injured the next week and my training was done and I got off the couch 2 months later and finished in 5:30--so still better than 18 weeks before, but significantly worse than I probably would have been had I ..trained. Last year roughly 16 weeks before my marathon I ran a 1:57 half which predicted a 4:06:30 and I ended up at 4:02:53 --in between there I ran a couple other races that predicted 4:01-4:03. How much better has so many variables, a lot depends on how long you have been running and natural talent and your program and your weight, etc. etc. etc.

            I have become Death, the destroyer of electronic gadgets

             

            "When I got too tired to run anymore I just pretended I wasnt tired and kept running anyway" - dd, age 7

              You have been averaging over 300 kilometers per month, so you have a big base already. I assume any improvement will be in the longer distances, since the runs shown in your log are shorter.

              PBs since age 60:  5k- 24:36, 10k - 47:17. Half Marathon- 1:42:41.

                                                  10 miles (unofficial) 1:16:44.

               

              rockintrax


                I'm sort of in agreement with everyone else...how much better you will be in 18 weeks is effected by all sorts of variables: mileage, training program, your own fitness, nutrition habits etc. Not everyone improves at the same rate, which is why calculators usually don't venture to saying that you will improve by XXX amount in XX amount of time. Sometimes you plateau (stay at the same pace for a month or so before suddenly improving again), other times you may decline for a period of time, and at some point in life (and/or training) you will probably peak, and you might never hit that peak again. Therefore it is very hard to make a computer program that could accurately predict something like that....though adding mileage safely never really hurts in the long run.
                Steph
                  The more woefully out of shape you are, the more you'll improve over 18 weeks of training. Duh.

                  Runners run


                  Why is it sideways?

                    There's only one way to find out.
                      There's only one way to find out.
                      Apparently, anything can happen. Hey I may be a star and be running 5 minute miles in 18 weeks....afterall there is no way to tell Big grin Blush

                      "The drops of rain make a hole in the stone, not by violence, but by oft falling." - Lucretius

                        Assuming you have everything working in your favor, you can expect to get into decent shape in 18 weeks.It takes experience and training to really lower your time. You probably should go and run a 10k at a comfortable pace and maybe a 15k the following week at the same pace. You should maybe even wear a heart rate monitor and get a feel for your lactate threshold; if you can run 15k comfortably without any issues and feel in control, then you can use the time of your 15k to plot a strategy for the race, its too hard to use a 5k for this purpose because it isn't taxing your endurance muscles as much as a 15k. The comfortable paces might even just be a threshold pace which will strengthen your lactate threshold plus give you some information of what to expect. Like other posts, other factors might determine your improvement like are you currently in shape and your age because if you get sick or injured during the training and have a setback then you can expect less than if everything goes well.