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What am I capable of? (Read 294 times)

    I've got a marathon this weekend. And while in my head, I think a 3:20 is do-able, I'm having those pre-race thoughts that I'm over-estimating my abilities.

     

    I haven't run a full since May 2011 in Pittsburgh where I ran a 3:28:31. Comparing my training from that race to this, I've put it in far more miles this time around, but by most standards a very modest marathon build up. 514 miles this year vs ~350 in 2011.

     

    My last month has not been great, illness, travel and some odd little injuries which have since subsided. The months prior, I had some decent training runs, 18 miles with 14@7:30, hit my 3 20 milers (mostly all around 8:00-8:30 pace).

     

    I had planned on a tune-up race a month back, but the race filled up before I was able to register. So I haven't raced since last July when I raced a 5K.

     

    My most "recent" times: Half in 1:32:11(10/11), 5k in 18:40 (6/12).

     

    I'm wondering, what do you guys think? Is a 3:20 possible based off these numbers?

      You'll probably hear answers both ways, so you need ask yourself what you think is possible. If you think it's possible, then go for it. If you fail, you fail. Try again next time.

      There was a point in my life when I ran. Now, I just run.

       

      Well, fuckers

      He still stands

       

      The Diary of a Once-ran.


      just a simple cat

        You can do it!  You will do iT!!

         

        Running is stupid

          Fwiw I've never come close to 18:40 and I have 3:20. If you are still in close to that shape then heck yes it's possible.

           

            What kind of course you are running probably matters.  Pittsburgh is a bit of a rough course, especially in the back half, and the weather for 2011 kinda sucked.  You were probably faster than 3:28 on a good course back in 2011.  18:40 is a nice quick 5k, and if you have the miles to match the speed I would guess you would hit 3:20 on a fair course without too much trouble.  Unless there is more to your story than I got out of reading it I don't think you made a strong enough case to get out of going for the 3:20, sorry you are going to have to try.

            Whatever my lot, thou hast taught me to say, It is well, it is well with my soul.

              You'll probably hear answers both ways, so you need ask yourself what you think is possible. If you think it's possible, then go for it. If you fail, you fail. Try again next time.

               

              And this.....if you go out too fast and blow up so what....it really really sucks for an hour or so and then it is done and you get a good story about how much it sucked.  If you don't try.....that lasts forever.

              Whatever my lot, thou hast taught me to say, It is well, it is well with my soul.

                +1, +1, +1.

                 

                We race because we do not know if we can do this.  We race because there is uncertainty.  If there wasn't, there'd be no point.

                 

                Run your race, resolve the mystery, then let us know how it went.

                 

                 

                And this.....if you go out too fast and blow up so what....it really really sucks for an hour or so and then it is done and you get a good story about how much it sucked.  If you don't try.....that lasts forever.

                "When a person trains once, nothing happens. When a person forces himself to do a thing a hundred or a thousand times, then he certainly has developed in more ways than physical. Is it raining? That doesn't matter. Am I tired? That doesn't matter, either. Then willpower will be no problem." 
                Emil Zatopek

                   

                  And this.....if you go out too fast and blow up so what....it really really sucks for an hour or so and then it is done and you get a good story about how much it sucked.  If you don't try.....that lasts forever.

                   

                  +1.  It's the logic behind setting a goal of a 2:00 HM even though I haven't raced in almost 2.5 years.

                  'No matter how slow you go, you're still lapping everyone on the couch'

                   

                  "Running is a big question mark that's there each and every day. It asks you, 'Are you going to be a wimp or are you going to be strong today?'"  - Peter Maher

                   

                  "Running long and hard is an ideal antidepressant, since it's hard to run and feel sorry for yourself at the same time. Also, there are those hours of clearheadedness that follow a long run."  -Monte Davis

                    You have run more mileage in prep this time, and my opinion, that makes your goal quite possible.    And as I have found out myself, sometimes injuries are merely "taper in disguise".  In other words, you ran a lot of mileage, then illness/injury forced you to take it Easy.  As long as you are not sick or injured on race day, I think all that base mileage you did will get you there.

                     

                    That is my gut opinion.  ---Come back and tell us what the results were after the race, and good luck :-)

                    The Plan (big parts)→  /// April:  Hampton, VA 24 Hour Run for Cancer (PR 80 Miles) ///  Nov:  New York Marathon  ///  Dec:  Seashore State Park 50K  ///  ∞

                      Thanks all. I needed to hear that. This race is flat, almost pancake flat, which is a first for me, my two other marathons had significant hills. So really, all that's left to do is go for it - which I will, and if I blow up, so be it, I'll just have to try again.

                       

                      Time to find out ... thanks again.

                        Looking at your log, I think you have a strong base. I think you can easily do it.  Good luck!

                        5k - 20:56 (09/12), 7k - 28:40 (11/12), 10k trial - 43:08  (03/13), 42:05 (05/13), FM - 3:09:28 (05/13), HM - 1:28:20 (05/14), Failed 10K trial - 6:10/mi for 4mi (08/14), FM - 3:03 (09/14)


                        I'm back!

                          I haven't run under 19, but I have run 2:58. (True, that 19:08 is really soft.)

                           

                          To me the most telling workout is the 18 with 14 @ 7:30. That would be a big positive indicator. However, on the other side is that the last month has not been great.

                            Looking at your log, I think you have a strong base. I think you can easily do it.  Good luck!

                             

                            David, how's your log doing? Better now that it's warming up?

                              Looking at your log, I think you have a strong base. I think you can easily do it.  Good luck!

                               

                              Are you kidding?!  The OP is woefully short on 'base'.  i think he's a very talented runner who just may run 3:20 but it will be in spite of his poor training not because of some 'strong' base.

                              OP - you're a sub-3 runner if you could just string together some real training.  I'm not betting against you running 3:20 but I wouldn't bet on you either!   You're running Athens?  That course should be about as favorable as there is so go for that 3:20.  Go out no faster than 3:20 pace and that last 5 miles seems to be very slightly downhill, hold onto your pace no matter what.  Good luck and get 'er done.

                                Ken- I appreciate the honesty, and I strongly agree, I'm not hitting anywhere near the mileage for optimal racing - hence my questioning in the original post. Ive dealt with a handful of injuries in my short running career and am extremely jealous of the guys that just start running and the next thing you know, they're up to 50 mile weeks, my body has not been so generous. So I've been cautious, overly so, I'm sure. At this point though, it's time to see what I can maintain over 26.2. Thanks for the pacing advice, and the encouragement to pursue my potential in later training.

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