Suggest a Marathon Pace (Read 642 times)

Brian, you got off on the right foot by linking to your log. Very helpful. Based on your 10 miler, you may very well be able to sustain something a bit faster than 10 minutes. Not sure how hard you pushed to maintain that pace but it does seem to indicate that you're capable of something in the 9:30 range. Maybe do the first half in 9:45 pace and then pick it up from there depending on how you feel up to 9:20-9:30?

I'm also 50 and ran my first marathon three weeks ago. Before my race the "Purdy formula" race predictor was recommended to me as a more realistic predictor for marathon times for less experienced marathoners. It seemed to do the trick for me in my race. I ran a 10K three weeks before my marathon and pretty much plugged that result into a Purdy calculator and used the pace it gave me and averaged almost exactly that pace for the marathon. Here's a link to an online Purdy formula (and alternatives) calculator: http://runningforfitness.org/calc/rp.php I plugged your 1:57 half into it and it spit out 4:20 for the full, which is a ~10:00 pace. How do you feel compared to 9/07 when you ran the half? If you're feeling faster/fitter now then maybe adjust your pace accordingly. How did you feel during/after your long runs? It's very tough to use training pace to determine race pace but if you're feeling very chipper running 20+ at 10:30-10:40 then I'd think 10:00 would be too conservative. I ran my long runs pretty close to 1:30 slower than my eventual marathon pace. It'd be nice if you had a more recent race to use as another data point. Any chance of doing a short race before the marathon? There are lots of local St. Pat's races around here (Boston) this weekend. The shorter the distance the less accurate it is as a predictor for a marathon but I'd think even a 5K result would still provide useful information. Good luck! MTA: made the URL click-able

Sincere thanks for the helpful advice. My short and mid range runs are not at maximum effort yet my long runs push me to the limit, which further skews the point that Jeff makes. I always assumed that this is caused by lack of miles and my inability to digest energy replenishment foods during the long run. I’ve trained this time with Clif Shot Bloks and they seem to work better for me. Yes Andre the ODM is my race. I read the comments regarding the wind, but after this past weekend and 50 mpg gusts, at least I have some exposure to it. Let’s hope for a tailwind this year.