RunningAHEAD - Topic: Estimating race pace

Giff1023

posted: 6/22/2007 at 11:34 AM

I'm new to running - only been going about 3-4 months, so I don't have very much race experience. I'm trying to figure out what a good target pace for me might be for a 7.5M race this weekend. I've done two races so far, a 3.7M and a 4.2M with my times at 6:05-6:10 pace, but I have no idea what I should expect to shoot for as I increase the race distance. I'd like to run as fast as I can without blowing up 4 miles into the race Big grin

. Can anyone offer advice?

Scout7

posted: 6/22/2007 at 11:37 AM

You've been running for a few months, and are averaging 6:10/mile or better? Wow.... Try this: Shoot for about 6:15-6:20 pace, and after the halfway point, start trying to negative split (run each mile faster than the last). When you're finished, see how you feel. Adjust from there for next time.

jEfFgObLuE

I've got a fever...

posted: 6/22/2007 at 11:42 AM
modified: 6/22/2007 at 11:50 AM

▲One way is to use the Race Time Predictor that Eric has set up on this site under the Tools tab. You can input times from 1 or two races and it will predict what you will run at another distance. ▲Another similar option is the McMillan Running Calculator, which uses your time in a recent race to figure out equivalent performances for all major running distances. ▲Also, there's an old rule of thumb called Horwill's Rule (named after famous track coach Joe Thompson) which states that as you double distance, your pace will slow down 16~20 sec per mile. This was based on elites, but's it's still a good approximation. The big caveat with these type of calculations is that it assumes you've trained specifically for the distance in order to meet those predictions. Shouldn't be a big deal for you since the distances you're planning to run are comparable to what you've already raced. But let's say you blast out a 5k, and look at the equivalent marathon time from a calculator. Could you run that marathon time that day? No, but you could come close if you did the right training. Two things: 1. Why are your races such oddball distances? 2. If you're new to running, you must be a natural to be running low 6min/mile for those distances. Big grin

On your deathbed, you won't wish that you'd spent more time at the office. But you will wish that you'd spent more time running. Because if you had, you wouldn't be on your deathbed.

Giff1023

posted: 6/22/2007 at 12:08 PM

Thanks for the tips! I think I'll try to follow Scout's plan of picking a fast but reasonable pace and trying negative splits if I can handle it. I'm a little worried that I won't have the aerobic capacity for the longer distance, but I guess I'll find out! That calculator tool is very cool too. I'm going to have fun playing around with it Smile

I've always been fairly athletic, and I'm not totally new to running. I used to love road biking and did some shorter triathlons a few years back. Sadly, when I moved to Boston 3 years ago I gave up biking since I hate riding on roads with heavy traffic. Now, after a few years off, I'm trying to get back into better shape and I found running is a lot more fun for me than biking since I can explore little trails and back streets without worrying about traffic and potholes - of course I'm still getting used to pounding my legs on the pavement/trails. It seems like something new hurts after every run. As for the oddball race distances, the 3.7M was supposed to be a 5k but the course was changed at the last minute because of some problem with the police detail... it ended up being a ton of fun! It was my first running race ever, and I won my age group (and got an awesome cheap plastic trophy Tongue

). The 4.2 is a regular, theme based series over the summer - I ran it because it was advertised as a "Blues Run", so they had an awesome blues band playing as you finished the run (and plentifull free beer!) Sometime down the road I'd like to do a marathon, but that's probably a year or two off... and who knows, maybe Boston someday.

trishierunner

esq.

posted: 6/22/2007 at 6:24 PM

Can anyone offer advice?

How about YOU give ME advice about to run so damn fast! Wink

2009: BQ?

jgoldsborough

posted: 6/23/2007 at 3:44 PM

I use the Running Times Race Predictor. Very cool, and is usually pretty darn close. http://runningtimes.com/rt/articles/?id=6765

Sack up and run.

Estimating race pace (Read 578 times)