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Looking for reassurance! :) (Read 892 times)

    So my marathon is now just 10 days away and I am freaking out.   I haven't run one since I was in my early 20's (20 years ago) although I have done a number of half marathons.

     

    I think my training has gone pretty well and the only thing I am worried about is pacing.  My original goal was BQ which is a 3:20 marathon for me.  However, as I have gone through the training, I think I would be happy to "settle" for sub 3:30.

     

    I just wanted a second (and third) opinion on whether or not my training is enough to accomplish this (3:30).

     

    From a pure speed approach, I think I am there.  My recent races are:

    5k  21:02

    8k  34:15

    10k 43:26 (was a HOT day)

    10m 1:11:47

     

    Based on the McMillan charts I should probably be in the 3:21 - 3:25 range which would be great.

     

    However, having not gone 26 miles I am very fearful of hitting "the wall" and walking the last 3-5 miles.  My long runs have been as follows:

    9/26    21 miles    2:59

    9/16    15 miles    2:05

    9/5      21 miles    3:30

    8/28   20 miles     2:41

    8/14   19 miles     2:42

    8/5      19 miles     2:47

     

    I guess I just have little confidence that putting it all together on race day will work out?  For me, I think I need to see myself running 26 miles at a 7:40-8:00 pace before I know I can do it.

     

    Is this typical?

     

    Thanks

     

    Rick

    2014 Goals

    Weight - 200 lbs (stuck around 211)

    2000 miles (1700 as of September 10)

    Stay healthy for Boston 2015

    Marathon - 3:05 (St. George in October)

    5k - 19:55 (19:43 July 4, 2014)

     

      You should be able to manage 3:30 at least. There's quite a bit of difference between going out at 7:40 pace and going out at 8:00 pace. If you'd be happy to get round in 3:30 then head off at 8 min pace and if you've got anything left in the last few miles then speed up. On the other hand if you really want to get your BQ - then go out faster; but realise that this increases the chance that you'll blow up in the last few miles and end up with a slower time than if you'd start out more conservatively.

       

      The mistake most people make on their first marathon is to go too fast. You get all excited; there are fast people zipping off down the road at high speed - and it feels very easy for 15-20 miles.

       

      For reference my last  marathons have been 3:30, 3:21, 3:27 (very hot day) and the best I've done for shorter distances during that period are 5k - 19:34, 10k - 41:03; HM -1:29. But I've yet to run a marathon where I didn't slow down badly at the end - so clearly I don't have the pacing thing right yet.

        I'm not an experienced marathoner, so stop reading here if that's important. Big grin  A few thoughts:

         

        1. I'd kill to have had your long runs in my cycle leading up to Twin Cities last year.  You should look back on those and draw a lot of confidence.

         

        2. If I read you correctly, you want to run a 3:25 before you'll be confident that you can run a 3:25?  Part of the marathon's allure is that you can never know what you're going to get, other than a good test of yourself.  Trust your training and embrace the uncertainty.

         

        3. And +1 to what pr100 said.

         

        Good luck!

        “Everything you need is already inside.” -- Bill Bowerman

          9/26    21 miles    2:59

          9/16    15 miles    2:05

          9/5      21 miles    3:30

          8/28   20 miles     2:41

           

          The run on 8/28 should give you all the confidence you need.  You can do the next 10K in 50 min if you maintain the same pace.  So a 3:30 is probably well within your reach and race day magic might get you your BQ.


          Consistently Slow

            9/26    21 miles    2:59

            9/16    15 miles    2:05

            9/5      21 miles    3:30

            8/28   20 miles     2:41

             

            The run on 8/28 should give you all the confidence you need.  You can do the next 10K in 50 min if you maintain the same pace.  So a 3:30 is probably well within your reach and race day magic might get you your BQ.

             +1.

            If there are pacers keep him/her in sight. Do not pace before 24 miles.Hydrate and hydrate some more. The people in my AG who did not stop early  and often for water finished behind the pacer.

            Run until the trail runs out.

            2013***1500 miles

            50 miler

            Race Less Train More

             

            Ana Trason  "Living Her Life"

            "The Marble in The Groove"

             

            unsolicited chatter

            http://bkclay.blogspot.com/

              Thanks everyone.  We will see what happens next weekend!  

              2014 Goals

              Weight - 200 lbs (stuck around 211)

              2000 miles (1700 as of September 10)

              Stay healthy for Boston 2015

              Marathon - 3:05 (St. George in October)

              5k - 19:55 (19:43 July 4, 2014)

               

              Biking Bad


              finnegan begin again

                Good luck. You seem to have an adequate base leading into your marathon build up. You should do well.

                 

                My experience is limited to 2 marathons. The first was an 18 week build up with zero base. My inexperience and unbridled enthusiasm led to a near collapse finishing.

                 

                Fast forward one year. A base similar to yours and a measured even pace attempt=success.

                 

                MTA   1+ to hydration, early and often

                "... the harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph. What we obtain too cheap, we esteem too lightly: it is dearness only that gives every thing its value..."  Thomas Paine Dec 23, 1776 The Crisis 

                 

                Adversity is the first path to truth. Lord Byron


                hairshirt knitter

                  We have a lot of similarities, my 5k pr this year is 21:02 too, and I ran my last marathon 12 years ago. I don't think I had as long a base as you in the lead up, but my weekly max was a bit higher. I ran a half comfortably in 1:39 in Spring and could have run faster (long story), but I think I went into the marathon too timidly - a little afraid of running it 'well'. My plan was to run under 3:45 comfortable goal, 3:40 happy goal and although I ran 3:40, I'm fairly sure I *should* be able to run 3:30 or under. My overall goal, training for that marathon, was to get back into regular running though, so NEXT time I have something to work from.

                   

                  In your case, although it's tempting to suggest a similar plan, it sounds like you want to go for it this time. Setting out at BQ pace sounds like a recipe for coming unstuck, but are you going to be happy with a sub 3:30 outside BQ? Is it worth going for broke, how will you feel about picking training back up for next time if you run hard from the gun, blow and miss your BQ?

                    Definitely not going to go for broke.  I think I would be ecstatic with a 3:30 at this point.  I have already signed up for the Las Vegas R&R in December and was hoping to use this one as a "practice" run for that one.  I am hoping to learn from this one and use that one for BQ.  

                     

                    We'll see!

                    2014 Goals

                    Weight - 200 lbs (stuck around 211)

                    2000 miles (1700 as of September 10)

                    Stay healthy for Boston 2015

                    Marathon - 3:05 (St. George in October)

                    5k - 19:55 (19:43 July 4, 2014)

                     


                    hairshirt knitter

                      In that case, I'd say try to keep as close to 5:00/km as you can whilst running comfortably, and see how you feel at 35k. That gives you enough time to claw back a few minutes (and a lot of places) if you are feeling ok. I'm intrigued to hear how you get on... let us know.

                        Had a great run today!!!  Thanks again for all your support and advice.  I will give a brief recap and a link the GPS results.

                         

                        Day was almost perfect weather.  About 10 Celsius at the start (50?) and overcast.  We had a few sprinkles along the way but nothing major and certainly no puddles to avoid.

                         

                        My goal was just to break 3:30 and not go for BQ in this race (3:20).  Will leave that for Vegas in December.  I haven't run a full marathon since I was in my early 20's (20 years ago) so I wasn't sure what to expect.  I wanted to go out and do about 1:40-1:50 per mile and see how long I could hold that without getting my heart racing too much.

                         

                        First 7-10 miles I had to constantly hold myself back it seemed.  Any time I looked at my watch and say my HR above 147 or my pace under 7:30 I would reign it back just a bit.  The splits were right where I wanted them to be.  The only slower mile (7:58) was because I walked through a water station and downed a package of GU which took a little extra time.

                         

                        At that point I just wanted to cruise and see how long I could maintain that pace without having my heart rate creep up into the 150's too quickly.  I was hoping I could stay under 150 until about mile 20 and then see what I had left.  Fortunately it worked out exactly that way.  Splits in miles 11-20 were actually about 10 seconds faster than they were for the first 10 miles and no ill effects.  I did notice that my right hamstring was starting to tighten a little.

                         

                        About mile 20 I was pretty excited because I know that I had built about a 6 minute cushion on my 3:30 goal time.  I just needed to gut out the last 10k and even a 55 minute 10k would get me there.  The hamstring had tightened more but I managed to change my stride a little bit (more of a shuffle) and that seemed to keep that problem at bay.

                         

                        Miles 21-23 were more of the same but I was concerned about my hamstring completely seizing and messing up what was shaping up to be a great time for me.  So I took a few extra walk breaks (about 1 per mile) and just wanted to maintain about 8:00 per mile pacing to the finish. I still average about 7:52 per mile. 

                         

                        At about mile 24 the hamstring really started to bother and worry me.  MORE walk breaks to try to relax it.  Definitely slowing down, but again I just wanted to get under 3:30 and still had a 6 minute cushion with 2 miles to go.  You can see my splits slowed down to about 8:10 for miles 24 and 25.

                         

                        The last mile was really tough.  Hamstring was toast.  At one point I had to stop and try to stretch it out a little.  That was about 200 meters from the finish!!  Ugh.  It wouldn't release so I basically just limped my was across the line.

                         

                        Overall, was extremely happy with my 3:24 time.  Can't wait for Vegas because there is no doubt in my mind that I can take at least 5 minutes off this time and qualify for Boston.   

                         

                        http://www.runningahead.com/logs/d92b042188da47d99e5b9ae6632b8a23/workouts/83c32104573e434992e01bc06dd80e56

                        2014 Goals

                        Weight - 200 lbs (stuck around 211)

                        2000 miles (1700 as of September 10)

                        Stay healthy for Boston 2015

                        Marathon - 3:05 (St. George in October)

                        5k - 19:55 (19:43 July 4, 2014)