>Racing>McMillan's Running Calculator
I've got a fever...
Am I crazy. Some of these predictors say I will cross the finish line in my first marathon @ 3:30-3:40. This seems too fast for me. I ran 3 half marathons last year at a PR of 1:42:02. Doubling that distance, I don't think I could possibly run that pace for the whole salami. My goal is to do this thing at 9:00 per mile pace (around 3:55:00). I have been running about 1 year and a few of months. Any imput would be appreciated. I am beat after my long 18 or 20 milers at 9:00 pace. Worried......
On your deathbed, you won't wish that you'd spent more time at the office. But you will wish that you'd spent more time running. Because if you had, you wouldn't be on your deathbed.
The McMillan calculator, like all running calculators, has to be taken with a grain of salt. The further your starting distance is from the predicted performance, the more uncertainty i.e. if the 1:40 half is predicted from a recent 10 mile race, it's more believable than if predicted from a 5k.
The big caveat that's usually not made clear is that the predicted times are times you could run if you embark on specific training for those distances. Working your number backwards: let's say you've been training for a 5k, doing 5k-specific workouts, and you crank out a PR of 21:38. McMillan says that's equivalent to a 1:40 half. But does that mean you could go out the next weekend and do it? No -- it means that from where you are now with the 21:38, if you embarked on say an 8-12 plan of half-marathon specific training, the 1:40 would be attainable.
A Dance with Monkeys
I'm running somewhere tomorrow. It's going to be beautiful. I can't wait.
JN is wrong.
JN will run 3:37.
JN better run 3:37.
Or pray the weather is hot.
Oh yeah, JN, one month.