Is sub 3 possible for me in 9 weeks? 16 weeks actually (Read 624 times)

40:18

 Predictions ?

41:03

5:35.

That was downhill. Is it still too far?

 

Fast?

Yes.

Marathon prediction:

If half split is 1:33-34 = 3:10- 3:11

If faster = crash and burn.

 

Fast?

Yes.

 

 

Marathon prediction:

If half split is 1:33-34 = 3:10- 3:11

If faster = crash and burn.

+1.  Why did you go out in 5:35?  You're >30sec faster than your average pace.  I know it was downhill, hard to tell how much with no scale on the vertical axis, but still.  (OK I see it now, 71 ft fall does not justify that fast a pace).

I recommend you go out at 3:10 pace for the first few miles and under no circumstances, no matter how good you feel, allow yourself to go faster.  Then you can speed up a little bit so you come through the half in 1:33 or so.  Hold that average pace until AT LEAST 20 miles.   Then run by feel.

 

+1.  Why did you go out in 5:35?  You're >30sec faster than your average pace.  I know it was downhill, hard to tell how much with no scale on the vertical axis, but still.  (OK I see it now, 71 ft fall does not justify that fast a pace).

 

I recommend you go out at 3:10 pace for the first few miles and under no circumstances, no matter how good you feel, allow yourself to go faster.  Then you can speed up a little bit so you come through the half in 1:33 or so.  Hold that average pace until AT LEAST 20 miles.   Then run by feel.

This is the golden rule of marathon running. 20 miles is where you will usually know how you'll finish. It is the effort half, sometimes called the "true marathon half point".

If this thread didn't already have everything... I just ran this weeks speed workout as a 10,000 meter tempo on the track to get an idea of what you fools just talked David into doing. I feel mid 37 fit right now and running 38:59 alone was pretty rough. It was one of the harder tempos I've ever run.

 

David, I think you are sub 2:10 30K fit right now. I stand by what I said earlier about the most miserable 3:20-30 marathon ever. You need at least a few more months.

So you're going for sub-3 this fall then?

 I've collected all the sub 3 indicators out there. None of it seems to matter. Yet I keep trying. Registered for Baystate, I am.

I still think your only real problems were lack of sufficient recovery between attempts and bloody bad weather.  You are definitely, in shape for it, and have been for a while.

As for David, 5:35?  I hope your marathon discipline is a lot better than that.

Also, if you had a December marathon, and took the heart a lot of the suggestions in this thread (mostly increasing mileage into the 70s at the minimum), I think you might have a chance at a sub3.  But not in 2 weeks.

* while I don't recommend it, I can't help but hope you prove us all wrong.

 

I've collected all the sub 3 indicators out there. None of it seems to matter. Yet I keep trying. Registered for Baystate, I am.

Your 1:22:30 half is not more than enough an indicator?