RunningAHEAD - Topic: First Marathon: Play it safe or try for BQ?

sathomasga

posted: 11/30/2007 at 4:28 PM

My first marathon is Tybee Island on February 2. (http://www.runtybee.com/). Not being exactly young (45), the FIRST training program with only 3 runs a week looked like a good fit. When I started their 16-week marathon plan, I didn't have any recent races to use for estimating pace, so, to be conservative, I used a 10K trail run (49:00) and the half marathon leg of a half Ironman triathlon (1:56:00). Both of those predicted a marathon time of around 4 hours, so I decided to set sub 4-hours as my goal. But for the heck of it I had a chance to run a real 10K recently, and I was able to finish in 46:20 with less than perfect pacing. I was targeting 48:00 and ran too conservatively the first few miles. I had something left in the tank at the finish, and could have / should have finished with a better time. Now for the fun part. Using the FIRST formulae, that result predicts a marathon finish of 3:35:54, which is within spitting distance of a Boston Qualifying time of 3:30. Now I'm tempted to set 3:30 as my goal and train accordingly, but I'm worried that my eyes might be getting bigger than my legs, so to speak. Arguments in favor of going for it: - The race is pancake flat and my training is in north Georgia, which is anything but flat. - I'm not getting any younger; this might be my best shot at BQ (at least for the next 5 years). Arguments in favor of playing it safe: - Risk of injury by pushing too hard in the training - Risk of blowing up in the race and jeapordizing even finishing - Risk of the unknown; this will be my first full marathon Any comments, thoughts, suggestions? Stephen

mikeymike

posted: 11/30/2007 at 6:00 PM

My first thought is that 3:35:54 is NOT within spitting distance of 3:30. But I also think 4:00 is way too conservative for you. Your race isn't until February 2 so I'd wait and see how your training goes and see if you can run a few more races 10K and up (preferably one or two of half marathon or longer). That will give you a better idea of what you're capable of.

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Riggs 2.0

Marquess of Utopia

posted: 11/30/2007 at 6:03 PM

Play it safe... I've used calculators that predict 2:55 for my marathon, so I thought 3:10 would be easy. I hit the wall at mile 18 and finished injured in 3:44.

Jeff

Why is it sideways?

posted: 11/30/2007 at 6:31 PM

Quote from sathomasga on 11/30/2007 at 4:28 PM:

...But for the heck of it I had a chance to run a real 10K recently, and I was able to finish in 46:20 with less than perfect pacing. I was targeting 48:00 and ran too conservatively the first few miles. I had something left in the tank at the finish, and could have / should have finished with a better time....

Are you sure this was less than perfect pacing? Sounds like you ran much faster than you expected to. Starting out easy might have actually been a smart strategy, one that would work out well for the marathon as well. You don't have to make the decision yet about the pace you want to run, but starting out at 3:35 pace would actually put you in good shape to run 3:30--if you still feel good in the second half of the race. I think all marathon training plans are based on the actual current fitness of the runner, not what they hope to run. So, do the best you can to be honest with yourself about your current state of fitness and base your workouts off of that, not off of BQ time. If you get in a half marathon and run it a BQ-type performance, then you might re-evaluate. But present data says 3:35...until you actually run faster, that's all you have to go on. Finally, erring on the side of caution when it comes to training intensity is a good rule of thumb, as injuries are very common in marathon training--more common, perhaps, than running the race of our dreams.

perfesserr

Imminent Catastrophe

posted: 12/1/2007 at 3:41 PM

Personally I don't think that a 10k is a good predictor for marathon times, unless you've just run 20 miles. IMHO your HM time is a lot better for a valid prediction, and even then, miles 20-26.2 are a whole new ball game. Can you run a HM in January? It might give you a better idea of where you're at.

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sathomasga

posted: 12/2/2007 at 10:41 AM

Thanks to everyone for the suggestions. Honest advice is definitely appreciated, even more than cheer-leading. FYI, here's the plan I'm going with for now. First, my new goal for the marathon is 3:45. (If I don't make that time, I'll be disappointed, but not a lot.) I'm going to stick with the FIRST plan, but I've made some adjustments. Previously, I has set all my pace targets at +/- 5 sec/mile using the plan for a 4:00:00 finish. (For those that don't know, the FIRST plan has very specific pace targets for all workouts.) Now I've changed that to use a 3:36:00 finish as the slow limit and a 3:30:00 finish as the fast limit. I don't follow the targets rigidly since so much of my runs are on hilly courses, but I do try to stick in the general area. My first workout with the new pace targets was a 13 mile long run this morning. The targets were 8:29/mile (3:36:00 finish) and 8:13/mile (3:30:00 finish). I managed 8:27/mile on a hilly course, so I'm feeling pretty okay with the plan for now. I'll play it by ear on the race itself. If my training has gone well, and if the conditions are good (no wind, no rain), I may make a race day decision to go for it. I'm pretty conservative, though, so I don't think I'll make that decision inappropriately. I like the idea of racing a half marathon to get a better goal. The FIRST plan does discourage races during the training, but I'll see if there's a race in driving distance and give it some thought. Thanks again for the advice. If folks are interested, I'll add some some updates with progress information. Stephen

marcus_g

posted: 12/3/2007 at 11:20 AM

Hi Stephen, I just came off a marathon, primarily using the FIRST plan as a guide... from my experience, the good news is that if you use the FIRST runs with your new goals for a few weeks, you'll quickly figure out where you are.... FIRST workouts are tough -- if you find yourself easily completing all three runs based on 3:35 pacing, I personally wouldn't be afraid to go for a 3:30.

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First Marathon: Play it safe or try for BQ? (Read 685 times)