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What will Boston entry be like next year? (Read 1469 times)

    Here is some facts..

     

    1. For 2012 Boston, Less than 15,000 people registered the first week. Those would be the "new" standards for 2013.

    2. Chicago 2011 was warm (I will call it warm because Boston 2012 was hot).

    3. I believe the number of people who qualified at Boston 2012 will be dramatically less than which qualified in 2011.

    4. 400+ deferrals is not a lot of people.

     

    If you just combine those factors, then I see:

     

    1. Boston not closing after 2 weeks.

    2. Registration remaining open until Chicago.

    3. If Chicago actually gets blessed with cool weather. I could see it close after Chicago. Would be interesting to see people rush to register.

    4. If it doesn't fill after Chicago, then it "might" make it to New York. Might...


    Fast is better than long

      Yep, your chances are zero, because if you try to go back to Boston next year, you will be forcibly restrained.

       

      Forcibly is too gentle a word.

       

      That said, I think the deadline for bandits is much less rigid than for those with bibs. The qualifying standard is much more flexible as well.

      2014 Goals: 2500 miles / sub 2 800m / 4:30 mile / sub 16:30 5K

       

      Give a man a fire and he'll be warm the rest of the night;
      Set a man afire and he'll be warm the rest of his life.

      What in the Jehu?


      hairshirt knitter

        Hmm... there's obviously a lot I don't understand about Boston.

         

        I was under the impression that registration was only open "until Friday, September 21", unless it was filled before then. You seem to be saying that, in fact, if not full, entries for Boston would still be open in October or November 2012 for the 2013 race?


        just a simple cat

          If not full....why wouldn't they stay open?

           

           

          But this "data analysis" was done using results from some "major marathons"   maybe folks are out BQing at small mom and pop marathons instead.   Big grin

           

          I  guess as you get more bodacious, you begin to lose more brain cells, because there is a limit to how much magnificence your body can house


          hairshirt knitter

            If not full....why wouldn't they stay open?

             

             

            Fair enough. But why have a tight closing date at all? Why not state closing date for registration is end-Feb. (or whatever) unless the race fills sooner. Is that because it has filled up in the first two weeks generally?


            I'm back!

              Huh...

               

              "Registration will close from Saturday, September 15 at 10:00 p.m., ET and, (if space remains) will re-open on Monday, September 17 at 10:00 a.m. ET to all qualifiers until Friday, September 21 at 5:00 p.m. ET. Those who are the fastest among the pool of applicants in their age and gender will be accepted. Accepted athletes will be notified by October 1, 2012."

               

              I thought sure there was mention that registration would stay open if not filled during this period. But I don't see that there now. This is very strange. One of the main benefits of the tighter times should be to get Chicago and New York back into the game.


              Imminent Catastrophe

                I sure hope they don't fill early.

                "Able to function despite imminent catastrophe"

                 "To obtain the air that angels breathe you must come to Tahoe"--Mark Twain

                "The most common question from potential entrants is 'I do not know if I can do this' to which I usually answer, 'that's the whole point'.--Paul Charteris, Tarawera Ultramarathon RD.

                 

                √ Tahoe Rim Trail 100M 20/21 July 2013

                Boston Marathon 21 April 2014

                Tahoe Rim Trail 100M 19/20 July 2014

                  Huh...

                   

                  "Registration will close from Saturday, September 15 at 10:00 p.m., ET and, (if space remains) will re-open on Monday, September 17 at 10:00 a.m. ET to all qualifiers until Friday, September 21 at 5:00 p.m. ET. Those who are the fastest among the pool of applicants in their age and gender will be accepted. Accepted athletes will be notified by October 1, 2012."

                   

                  I thought sure there was mention that registration would stay open if not filled during this period. But I don't see that there now. This is very strange. One of the main benefits of the tighter times should be to get Chicago and New York back into the game.

                   Maybe they plan if it's not filled the plan is to reopen it AFTER NYC and Chicago have been run?

                  Your toughness is made up of equal parts persistence and experience. You don't so much outrun your opponents as outlast and outsmart them, and the toughest opponent of all is the one inside your head." - Joe Henderson

                  xor


                    I don't think any of us here know what the plan is beyond guesswork.

                     

                    But it seems pretty safe to assume that if it isn't full by the close date, "something" will happen involving reopening it (no idea on timing).

                     

                    Anyone who is looking at these stats saying "ah, fewer people are registering, I bet it stays open, I'm putting my eggs in the Chicago basket" are going to have an entire summer working up an ulcer.

                     

                    Which, btw, will be big fun if you get another hot year in Chicago.

                     

                      Can I qualify if I run a 5K in the equivalent age graded McMillan calculated time of the qualifying marathon?


                      No Talent Drips

                        I'll bet my sweet 2007 Official Boston Marathon jacket that 2013 registration fills within the first two weeks. Plenty of spring and summer qualifiers out there...AND any of the fall qualifiers from last fall (late Sept. on) are good for 2013.

                         

                        You should go get the clap just so you can give it to her. --beef

                          Can I qualify if I run a 5K in the equivalent age graded McMillan calculated time of the qualifying marathon?

                           

                           

                           That would be awesome!  I don't even need to run my marathon in 13 days!  Smile

                          2014 Goals

                          Weight - 200 lbs (stuck around 211)

                          2000 miles (1700 as of September 10)

                          Stay healthy for Boston 2015

                          Marathon - 3:05 (St. George in October)

                          5k - 19:55 (19:43 July 4, 2014)

                           

                            3. I believe the number of people who qualified at Boston 2012 will be dramatically less than which qualified in 2011.

                             

                            WAY less. 47% in 2011, 13% in 2012.

                             

                            It will be interesting to see how the whole thing plays out for sure. There was something like 3,000+ people last year who had the minimum qualifying standard but didn't get in because it filled from fastest to slowest of that group before it reached their time. That said, NONE of those people would even have the minimum standard this year, so that takes a huge number of people right off the top. The one thing this whole process should eliminate this year is people who have their BQ being shut out during that first round of registration. I would assume that with the new standards in place, it will slim the number of qualified runners pretty significantly. But I dunno. Regardless, I think anyone who is not trying for at least their BQ -5 is making a mistake and taking a chance, even with the new standards.

                              I thought sure there was mention that registration would stay open if not filled during this period. But I don't see that there now. This is very strange.

                               

                              It's Crazy Dave's Limited Time Only Everything Must Go Boston Marathon Liquidation Sale!  Act now, supplies are limited!

                              Runners run.

                                I  believe in the article in the 2012 Boston Marathon program it stated that registration would go past the two weeks if it did not fill up (on a first-come, first-serve basis).

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