Lets be realistic (Read 2364 times)

Just finished my second marathon in 4:27:16 and am already thinking about my next one this fall (I'm thinking Philly in late November).

Realistically, how much can I expect to take off my time if I incorporate tempo and track work and am willing to run up to 60-65 mpw?

My guess is sub-4 is not far out of your reach if you just keep doing what you're doing mileage wise and add some tempos and a mid-week long run. Ramping up the mileage will only help.

I realize everyone is different, but this old, fat guy went from a 4:41 first marathon to a sub-4 second marathon in 4 months doing exactly what I suggested above. I had some peak weeks in the low 50's but I think I averaged in the high 30's.

A fair bit.

But really to make an estimate is impossible.  Train for the pace you are now.  Run some shorter races (10K-HM) periodically along the way and adjust your paces accordingly.  

Some people adapt faster to changes in training programs than others.  Looking at your log you are talking about making 2 big changes.  Speedwork AND  basically doubling your distance.  Maybe your body can do both at the same time, maybe you have to be cautious on one of them.   Maybe this will both happen in one marathon cycle, maybe it will take 2.

Not trying to be a downer in anyway, I love the enthusiasm.  But those are a lot of changes to try and predict a goal NOW.

A fair bit.

 

But really to make an estimate is impossible.  Train for the pace you are now.  Run some shorter races (10K-HM) periodically along the way and adjust your paces accordingly.  

 

Some people adapt faster to changes in training programs than others.  Looking at your log you are talking about making 2 big changes.  Speedwork AND  basically doubling your distance.  Maybe your body can do both at the same time, maybe you have to be cautious on one of them.   Maybe this will both happen in one marathon cycle, maybe it will take 2.

 

Not trying to be a downer in anyway, I love the enthusiasm.  But those are a lot of changes to try and predict a goal NOW.

Ennay, you predicted my next question of what I should be running my easy runs at. I get that the process of getting faster takes time, but man, I wish that time went by a little faster.

Sean,  others on here are more experienced running, especially marathons as I have not run one yet, but regarding paces to run, I can say something. Trying to slow myself down artificially leads to all sorts of aches and pains for me. I think everyone has a natural stride/pace that they are most comfortable at, and this improves slowly over time. Race times improve a bit faster.  My 5K time pace went from 10 min/miles to under 8 min/mile, but my training paces only went down about a min during this time.

I'd say any run that you does not leave you too tired/beatup to run the next day is fine.  You'll find this effort over time, no one but you can say what the pace needs to be on a particular day.  Sometimes my 9:20 pace 10miler seems easier than my 10:00 pace 4 miler.  Whatever pace allows you to consistently run (without injuries) gives the most bang for your mile.

Like Ennay said, be very careful about incorporating two drastic changes into one training cycle and train at your current ability level.    I did this (increased mileage and added intense hill repeats) and messed up my IT band.  And it is also important to understand your personality when you set goals for yourself.  If you are one of those uber competitive types (I am one of them) then you might want too much too soon.  Then you add all these workouts that all these great marathon runners on this site are doing without taking into account your current conditioning level. 

I wanted to race a marathon this year and people were telling me to take it easy, to just make it a goal to finish.  I know in my heart that I can't do that.  I wanted to let it rip.  That's all fine and good for shorter races, but not a marathon.  So I decided to hold off a year and get another few thousand miles under my belt.  You will get better and faster with time.  I'm sure there are lots of sub-4 marathon threads on RA.  Be sure to check them out!  

Honestly, with a fall marathon, I think you'd see bigger gains by a) keeping yourself consistent at 40ish MPW -- that alone would be a pretty big change for you -- and b) adding some interval and tempo work, including some shorter distance races.  Higdon Intermediate 2 doesn't go much above 40, I don't think, but does include interval and tempo work.  If you don't want to do both an interval and a tempo every week, you could do a midweek midlong at marathon pace.   

Although, I guess I'm thinking "fall" as being more like September/October, and your'e saying late November, which certainly gives you more time to build mileage.  But, yes, building mileage and adding speedwork at the same time . . . could be problems.  You could do fine with it, of course, but it's a road to injuries for many.

Number one thing I'd add, though?  More races. 

Realistically, how much can I expect to take off my time if I incorporate tempo and track work and am willing to run up to 60-65 mpw?

  I dont think anyone can quantify it for you.......but I think you are pretty much guaranteed that if you increase your mileage from your current level to roughly 60-65 MPW, then you are going to get stronger and faster.....  There's no guarantee that you can cut your marathon time by 60 mins or 20 mins or even 10 mins.......but you CAN BE GUARANTEED that  if you increase your running over an extended period of time, without injury you'll eventually get stronger and that will mean better times...