I think I remember reading a thread or maybe someone commented on what the cut offs actually ended up being with the new Boston rolling "admission" or whatever you want to call it.  Maybe it was like an an average of 2 or so minutes below the required BQ for your AG. 

Does anyone remember what it was, or maybe can provide the link to the thread?

2013's race may be different since the times go down by 5 minutes, but I'm curious to know what kind of buffer I might need to get into 2013.  I mean, to actually get in;  I already have a BQ this year of 3:09:38 (needed sub 3:10!) and that's good for the 2013 race.  But it might not be fast enough if a lot of people in my AG BQ faster! 

I'm racing NYC this weekend and have no idea how it will go, maybe I'll get another BQ, maybe I'll run 3:40?!  Who knows, it's not my A-race.   But I have a lot of months and a lot of other races in 2012 to get my time down a bit to be "safe" for 2013.  Not sure I'll even race Boston again, but I'd like to know the option is there if I want it.   

BQ-1:14 got you in.... Which means according to 2013 standards BQ+3:46 got in for 2012. Which means that just run a BQ based on the 2013 standard and you'll most likely be fine.

I think what you will find is that a lot of people run just fast enough to get the qualifier.  As the bar moves to a faster time, a lot of people will simply run 5min faster.  This is not true for all of course, but I would be very surprised if only a 5min move in the qualifier results in there being room for all who qualify to enter.

Spaniel, totally agreed.  I think people somehow just step up to the challenge more.   Not sure how that works, but I bet it does.  I think the comment of shooting for a 3:08 is solid.   

But it might not be fast enough if a lot of people in my AG BQ faster!  

BTW, it doesn't matter how many people in your AG run faster. It matters how many overall beat their BQ time by how much. If more apply in the registration window than there are slots, then BQ-X will get in for everybody, for some X.

I know people who have really had to extend themselves to get a BQ, but the fact is most people are nowhere near their physical limit to get a BQ.  It's a matter of how bad they want it.  So a lot of them will try a bit harder.

Yup,  a lot of people I know have gone out and coasted into a comfortable BQ if they want to run Boston that year.  They'd rather take the more sure thing (say 3:09x) than possibly go up in a ball of flames chasing a faster time goal.

I'd be curious to see how the 2013 field does compared to those of years past.

Can't see it closing in the 2 week period. Why? Because only 14,xxx people registered at BQ-5 or faster this year, which is the standards for 2013. So you'd have to see a 40% increase in that group...