Paul Ryan Says He’s Run Sub-3:00 Marathon (Read 1921 times)

    Well, as many have said, this is a running website.

     

    You're funny.

    Ok, we'll start now.

    Went through the thread development.  The 1st post pasted here from Trent was the 1st political statement.

     

    Trent: posted: 8/31/2012 at 5:01 PM

    Well, anyhow, I think we should trust Ryan. If he says it is true, it is certainly true. He is a man of deep integrity who has never been known to make misleading or false statements.

    Trent: posted: 8/31/2012 at 7:59 PM

    But if there is a pattern of lies and misrepresentations, this just adds to the fire and may sway voters.

    Trent: posted: 8/31/2012 at 8:35 PM

    A major politician on the national stage who demonstrably lied and mislead millions of people several times just two days before should not be making this kind of mistake. He should be fighting hard to present the truth...

    Trent: posted: 8/31/2012 at 8:37 PM

    The average voter likely does not know as much about the US budget as Ryan does either. But if he is going to make assertions about his skills and plans, he ought to try to get it right... 

    ...especially so recently after even Fox admitted to his lying to and misleading us all in his big speech in Tampa.

    Trent: posted: 8/31/2012 at 8:49 PM

    modified: 8/31/2012 at 8:55 PM

    MTA: and again, right now we are not talking about a few lies and misrepresentations scattered over a few years. We are talking about a fairly large sackful in just the past 48 hours, and across multiple venues. AND from somebody who talks about how he has deep integrity.


    2014 Goals:

    #1: Do what I can do. <DOING>

    #2: 365 Hours training <NOPE, INJURED>

     

      I hope ya'll won't take this as a "defense" of Ryan, because I do share the view generally expressed here that a marathon time is kind of a holy thing, and as we all know there is an enormous difference between 2:50 and 4:01.  But, there is this from my own personal experience.

       

      Several years ago as I was getting back into running after a 15-ish year hiatus I got to thinking about all my old glory days.  I had this very fond memory of our 4 x 800 team taking 2nd place at State in our division in a very fine time of 7:51.  So, I did what anyone would do, I went poking around on my high school website to see if we still held the school record, and what do you know?  They had some other fab four listed with a school record of 8-flat (as I recall...).  So certain was I that this must have been a mistake that I even went to the extreme of trying to e-mail the current AD at my high school (yes, I understand that this is somewhat pathetic behavior for a 36-year-old man, I've matured since then Smile) and inform him of the mistake.  How could these youngsters possibly hold the school record when we clearly ran a FAR superior time of 7:51 back in 1984?  I mean, the injustice of it all!  

       

      Well, then my 20-year high school reunion came around in 2004 and this was still bothering me...  Fortunately I ran into one of my old relay teammates, and I put the question to him.  "Hey man, you remember our 4x800 at State when we were seniors?  What time did we run?"  And without hesitation he said 8:01.  Sheepishly, I muttered, "Oh, for some reason I thought I remembered that we broke 8."  "No," he said, "maybe we were a shade under 8:01, but I think we were just over 8:01."  "Oh," I said.....

       

      Now, 7:51 to 8:01 is not nearly as big an exaggeration as 2:59 is to 4:01, but being that I am (or at least like to think I am) a runner, I think one might conclude that my mistake was more unforgivable than Ryan's, and 10 seconds is still a pretty big mistake in a 4x800 time.  So, take away whatever you will from this true life parable, but in my personal experience even my running memories (which I hold pretty dear) are subject to some distortion over the course of enough years.

      - Joe

      all running goals are under review by the executive committee.


      A Dance with Monkeys

        You're funny.

         

        You wasted a lot of time on that. What was your goal in posting it?

         

        You do realize that I was being facetious, don't you?

          You wasted a lot of time on that. What was your goal in posting it?

           

          You do realize that I was being facetious, don't you?

           yes

          2014 Goals:

          #1: Do what I can do. <DOING>

          #2: 365 Hours training <NOPE, INJURED>

           


          HobbyJogger & HobbyRacer

            If we're going to quote something, let's quote something that sounds actually intelligent. Like this:

             

            First of all, we need to understand that Krugman is a Keynesian economist, (to simplify, Keyne's was a British economist that believed in government spending to solve economic challenges).  There’s merit to this school of economic thought, so Krugman follows a model that has merit.

            From a 30,000 foot fly over macro economic sense, there’s a “need” to increase (or stabilize) Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and there are different ways to do so.

            1. Consumer Spending
            2. Investment Spending
            3. Exports / Imports relationship
            4. Government Spending

            Consumer spending is stunted in its ability to grow since the unemployment rate is elevated.  It cannot increase back to normal levels easily.

            Investment spending is stunted because business sales have decreased, creating compression in their NIAT, making business investments tough and risky.

            We are a net importer, and that takes a long time to change due to trade agreements and international relationships

            Therefore, by theory, government spending is the quick “key” lever to fixing macro-economic instability.

            So, the theory has merit.

              

            In response to Trent, I agree that the Krugman article addresses good concern regarding Republican budget policy.  I think the question I have regarding the Keynesian economic theory (and Krugman’s thoughts) relates to the LONG TERM impacts of government spending.  I fear the Keynesian economic model.  When we have a economic deficit, who buys our debt?  Who owns our debt, and what are our long term obligations for the debt?  We cannot “charge off” the debt as we do with mortgages or credit cards.  In essence, I believe that the USA has slowly entered into arrangements where we’ve become enslaved to another super power.  

             

            That may be destiny, but I believe that right now, there are some Americans that rightfully want to avoid that destiny and are a little PO’d that we’re in that situation for our kids, grandkids, and great grandkids.  Unfortunately, this situation is due to many decades of policy decisions.

             

            That mindset is on both sides of the aisle.  Red and Blue.  Both don’t seem to understand or don’t seem to care to tackle that challenge.  Why?  Because either (1) it doesn’t create votes, or (2) there is no viable solution.

            ...

            It's a 5k. It hurt like hell...then I tried to pick it up. The end.


            Closed for repairs

              I missed that post.  It's pretty well written. 

               


              day after day sameness

                  

                 When we have a economic deficit, who buys our debt?  Who owns our debt, and what are our long term obligations for the debt?  We cannot “charge off” the debt as we do with mortgages or credit cards.  In essence, I believe that the USA has slowly entered into arrangements where we’ve become enslaved to another super power.  

                 

                That may be destiny, but I believe that right now, there are some Americans that rightfully want to avoid that destiny and are a little PO’d that we’re in that situation for our kids, grandkids, and great grandkids.  Unfortunately, this situation is due to many decades of policy decisions.

                 

                 

                An insightful whitepaper (Council on Foreign Relations) on just his topic can be found here Sovereign Wealth and Sovereign Power - The Strategic Consequences of American Indebtedness.

                Choosing my words carefully has never been my strength I've been known to be vague and often pointless

                xor


                  Paul Ryan Time calculator

                   

                  I tried to use the Buddy Ryan calculator, but it just punched me in the face.

                   

                  Version 2: I tried to use the Buddy Ryan calculator, and somewhere Kevin Gilbride got punched in the face.

                   

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                    Version 4: I tried to use the Meg Ryan calculator, but it just delivered a teary monologue about how I spent so much time running and it was like I was more interested in running than in her and what if she started running and then we ran together and then we started racing together but what if one day she was faster than me and I'd have such a problem with it, you know, and then there'd be this tension, this ... competitiveness between us and --

                    “Everything you need is already inside.” -- Bill Bowerman


                    Feeling the growl again

                      I tried using the Kardashian calculator, but it yielded nothing useful then tried to bill my credit card $20K.

                      "If you want to be a bad a$s, then do what a bad a$s does.  There's your pep talk for today.  Go Run." -- Slo_Hand

                       


                      Prince of Fatness

                        I tried to use the Buddy Ryan calculator, but it just punched me in the face.

                         

                        Version 2: I tried to use the Buddy Ryan calculator, and somewhere Kevin Gilbride got punched in the face.

                         

                        Version 3: I tried to use the Nolan Ryan calculator, and somewhere Robin Ventura got his ass kicked.

                         

                        Version 4:  I tried to use the Rob Ryan calculator, and somewhere Santonio Holmes punched Mark Sanchez in the face.

                        Semi-retired.


                        A Dance with Monkeys

                          I missed that post.  It's pretty well written. 

                           

                          Weird. So did I. Yes it is.

                            Version 5:  I tried the Ryan Braun calculator but it questioned the validity of the course

                             

                            Version 6:  I tried the Irene Ryan calculator and it told me to cut back on the vittles

                            In an infinite universe, the one thing sentient life cannot afford to have is a sense of proportion

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                            I've got a fever...

                               

                              Now, 7:51 to 8:01 is not nearly as big an exaggeration as 2:59 is to 4:01, but being that I am (or at least like to think I am) a runner, I think one might conclude that my mistake was more unforgivable than Ryan's, and 10 seconds is still a pretty big mistake in a 4x800 time.  So, take away whatever you will from this true life parable, but in my personal experience even my running memories (which I hold pretty dear) are subject to some distortion over the course of enough years.

                               

                              I made a similar mistake once regarding my 4x800 team.  We set a school record of 8:21 that 15 years later I had turned into an 8:09.  Turns out that 8:09 was what I once had calculated we should have been able to run if each of the four of us ran our fastest 800's in the same race (we could never all get our shit together on the same day).  The human memory has a way of conflating different thoughts over time -- it's very fallible.  

                               

                              I also used to say that in high school I that even my worst race in XC was sub-19 -- my personal worst was 18:59.  It was a meet I vividly remembered because it was my senior year County Meet and it was a huge disappointment -- if I had run close to my best time, I had a legit chance of winning it.  I still remember that awful feeling after the first 100 yards when I knew that I had nothing.  But just a year ago, I found an old scrapbook in the garage that showed I ran a 19:01 at County as a junior.  But my whole junior year was a disappointment, a lost year of running really, and all of the crappy races just kind of blend together in my mind.  I don't remember a bit of that 19:01 race.  The more disappointing senior failure stamped out the junior one in my memory.

                               

                              So yes, it's easy to make small mistakes over the passage of time, especially when you're talking about a lot of races.  But Ryan only ran one marathon.  I can't wrap my head around mistaking one's only  marathon for sub-3 when it was really 4+, especially when the "two-fifty something" elicited a 'wow" from the questioner.  A lot of races can blend together, but stand-out races, one-offs and PRs are things that most runners tend to remember vividly.  

                               

                              It's nearly impossible to look at this story without our political biases, but I submit that if a month ago, there was a thread that simply asking the question, "Do you think that an only-time marathoner with a time of 4:01 could mistakenly mis-remember it as a 2:50-something?", most of the respondents would say "no" and call bullshit on it.

                               

                              There are really two questions:

                              1.  Was Paul Ryan being disingenuous about his time, or simply was mistaken? 

                              2. Does it matter?

                               

                              The second one is purely subjective -- it's all about one's politics at this point.  The first question is objective, but one that we can't truly know the answer without being in Ryan's head.  But like I said, absent name and context, I think most runners wouldn't buy the 4:01-->2:5x mistake.

                               

                              Sort of  related, here's a recent TLDR article from the New yorker about a man who apparently lied about his race performances to the point where he created websites for races that didn't exist to bolster his stories.  He was busted by that sleuthy message board that is letsrun.

                              On your deathbed, you won't wish that you'd spent more time at the office.  But you will wish that you'd spent more time running.  Because if you had, you wouldn't be on your deathbed.

                                It's hard to picture someone comming in the middle of the pack confusing that with fast.  He was likely being beaten by men and women much older than him and could not help but notice that.  Hell... he was probably literally beaten by several grandmas at grandmas.  And yet he states a time that would have been in the front of the race?  Maybe he knows nothing about what is a great marathon time.  But he sure sounded confident in both his time and how fast he was. 

                                 

                                I think that's different from my misremembering whether as a 16 year old I ran a 56.7 second 440 yard time or a more likely 57.6 time. 

                                 

                                but of course... we're talking about someone with a lot bigger fish to fry.  it's just the 10,000th thing that makes normal people just expect that polititians lie when they open their mouths.  I don't care whether there is an R or a D after their name.  This just happend to involve running so it's one to make fun of here. 

                                In an infinite universe, the one thing sentient life cannot afford to have is a sense of proportion

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