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Realistic HM Time? (Read 231 times)

SonicDeathMonkey


    First, my background:

     

    Started running in late 2010, ran a HM in early summer 2011 with a 2:29. I got burnt out and ran another HM 3mos later that I already signed up for in 2:20. After that, I pretty much quit running. In Jan 2013, I started seriously running, and I lost 30lbs (down to 152), and I ran the same HM in 1:45 that I ran 2 years prior in 2:29, and I only had 200mi from couch potato to HM. I wrapped up 2013 with 1010 miles ran, did a few triathlons and my first full. My PRs are: 1mi 5:40, 5K 20:09, and 10K 43:36. I'm on W4 of Hal Higdon's HM Advanced plan. I'm guessing on a 1:38, but I'm afraid I might be selling myself short. I've never truly "raced" a HM - I feel like my 1:45 was a fluke as I had no real focus/direction in my running. What is a realistic time I should shoot for?


    The Irreverent Reverand

      I'm no coach, but giving your relatively short running history, I've got to say this: you've got some speed, particularly in those shorter distances. Keep up the good work.

      The advice I hear often about running a first marathon is this - just go out and run it with no time goal. Just go out and see what you can do. Now, you've run a Half before, but you've got this lingering doubt that it may have been a fluke (though your other PRs, and your total mileage for last year, both tell you that you're a bonafide runner).

       

      If I were you (in fact, we have similar stories [getting off the couch, getting into running] and we have *somewhat* similar PRs) I'd just sign up for a Half and run it hard, shooting to at least beat your previous time, and perhaps for something along the lines of a 7:30 pace (that 1:38 you're thinking about). I've never trained for a Half, but I've run several and gotten faster in almost every time ... even when my training hasn't been very focused. I imagine that if you actually train for the half, you'll nail or exceed your goals.

       

      A way to gauge your race pace would be to get out there and do some longer runs (8ish miles) at 7:30-8:00 pace (with slower warm-up and cool down, of course) and see how you feel. The idea isn't to kill yourself on a training run, but to see how it feels to get into that rhythm, and how you feel during and after running sustained at that pace for just over an hour ...

       

      My 2 cents worth of advice. Good luck!

      Husband. Father of three. Lutheran pastor. National Guardsman. Runner. Political junkie. Baseball fan.

       

      Goals for 2014:

      Sub-3:30 marathon; run for a year free from major injuries or interruptions

      PRs: 3:27 marathon; 1:41 half; 45:07 10K; 23:26 5K; 6:02 mile; <12 parsecs Kessel Run

        Per McMillan your 1 mile and 5k times indicate a 1:31 HM possibility, but your 10k indicates a 1:38 HM, so it appears that you need to work on your distance endurance.  If you do more long run training you might get down to the 1:31 HM. Your improvements up to now are good, and show some potential, and you could probably go under 1:30 if you wanted to train for it. I got under 1:30 at age 55 after several years of trying by running consistently  and increased mileage.


        Mmmmm...beer

          +1 for increasing your endurance.  I dropped my half PR from 1:50:45 to 1:28:10 in six months with 45-50mpw and 15 mile long runs.  FWIW, we have similar mile times, 5:39 for me.  I'm not familiar with the Higdons plans, what kind of mileage and long runs are you doing?

           

          Also, something that really helped me nail my PR half, were several tuneup races prior to the half to help me fine tune my race pace.

          -Dave

          My running blog

          2015 Goals | sub-18 5k | sub-37 10k | sub-1:23 HM | sub-4 trail 50k

          SonicDeathMonkey


            A few more notes:

             

            My HM is on 30 Mar (Knoxville). My mileage was in the 40-45MPW range from Oct-Dec, but I dialed it back a bit due to moving and starting a new job (Air Force move). Also, the HH plan I'm on was in the high-20MPW for the first couple weeks, but is slowly increasing. I've been following the plan pretty effectively and "feel" faster. I have a lot of opportunities for tune up races leading up to the half, and my first one is a 5 mile race tomorrow that I'm going to try to run at a 7:15-7:30 pace.


            MoBramExam

              I am with the folks above who suggest working on endurance training.  Not much time between now and March 30th.

               

              My thoughts:

              1) Skip the races and use your weekends for long runs.

              2) Start those long Thursday tempos (the 30-60 min ones) at 8:00ish run them progressively and try to average 7:50-7:55 for the duration.

               

              Going a little off the plan here, but:

              3) Replace the Tuesday intervals with another tempo (20:00 minutes, working towards 30:00 to 40:00 minutes as the weeks progress) starting at 7:45ish, run them progressively and try to average 7:30-7:40 for the duration.

              4)  Hold your speed by doing running drills and strides 2-3 times a week.

               

              Erase 1:38:00 from your mind.  Think, focus, and race 13.1 miles.  Nothing faster than 7:40-7:45 for the first couple of miles or so on race day, then see what happens.

               

              Just throwing out a different approach.

              Good Luck!

               



                You'll do it. Your times at 5k and 10k are similar to what I can do myself, you're a little faster actually, and I have run a 1:38:47 half this past September in Montreal. So get to the starting line with confidence, you'll nail it!


                running > all else

                  I've signed up for a 1/2 marathon to take place in June. I've read too about just going out there, running...and not worrying about time. I plan to do just that, but I would like to at least fall in the middle somewhere. Main goal is to finish...with a smile on my face!

                   

                  Good luck to all who are entering longer races for the first time!

                  SonicDeathMonkey


                    Well, the 5mi race got canceled, so I did a 90min long run per my plan. I did an out and back, and managed my effort - 8:08 avg pace, last two splits under 7:30. I felt fresh and energized after, and could have given more (no medals for training lol). Thanks for the advice and votes of confidence!

                    SonicDeathMonkey


                      Hey all, it's been about a month, and I have my HM in just less than 3 weeks.

                       

                      So far, I've upped my mileage to about 35-40 MPW. I've been doing long runs from 10-15 miles as well. Yesterday, I ran a 10mi race in lieu of my long run, and did it in 1:09 (fairly even splits). I also ran it fatigued (it was day 13 of a 74mi streak) and developed nerve-wracking blisters around mile 8 (ran in my racing flats whoops). I'm thinking I have something closer to a low 1:30 with proper rest and shoes. Thanks for the tips again!

                        With a handle like SonicDeath Monkey I'm sure you will KILL IT.

                        ilanarama


                        DREAMCRUSHER

                          So far, I've upped my mileage to about 35-40 MPW. I've been doing long runs from 10-15 miles as well. Yesterday, I ran a 10mi race in lieu of my long run, and did it in 1:09 (fairly even splits). I also ran it fatigued (it was day 13 of a 74mi streak) and developed nerve-wracking blisters around mile 8 (ran in my racing flats whoops). I'm thinking I have something closer to a low 1:30 with proper rest and shoes. Thanks for the tips again!

                           

                          I dunno; McMillan equivalent is 1:32 (assuming there are zero seconds on your 10M) and I am not sure you would gain a whole minute and a half from taper.  You're talking about essentially racing the half at the same pace as the 10.

                          PRs: 10 1:12:59 (4/2014) 13.1 1:35:55 (10/2013) 26.2 3:23:31 (12/2013)

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                          bloggy stuff at http://ilanarama.dreamwidth.org