Is sub 3 possible for me in 9 weeks? 16 weeks actually (Read 618 times)

    I'd like to earn a good spot for the Boston next year. Ideally I shall run a qualifying marathon in October but I couldn't find a flat route near me, even 4 hours drive. So I am thinking to run a reasonably flat course in July 27 in 9 weeks.

     

    Here is my current status:

     

    Last May I ran my first marathon in 3:09. After that, I didn't run much but 10 miles weekly  to this Spring very consistently.

     

    I then followed a 7-week plan training up to 45 miles for the half marathon last week and finished in 1:28.

     

    I am aiming for sub 3. The difference is that this route is a bit flat, about 400 ft elevation in total. The half I just ran had a 1033 ft elevation. I am not sure if I have enough time to recover from the half and train for the full. What do you guys think? Any input is welcome.

    5k - 20:56 (09/12), 7k - 28:40 (11/12), 10k trial - 43:08  (03/13), 42:05 (05/13), FM - 3:09:28 (05/13), HM - 1:28:20 (05/14), Failed 10K trial - 6:10/mi for 4mi (08/14), FM - 3:03 (09/14)


    Feeling the growl again

      Too many variables to say....taking off 9 minutes is not a monumental task.  Especially if you really ran 3:09 off little training.

       

      Have you looked for an August or September marathon to give yourself more time -- and increase the odds of favorable temperatures?  And FYI October will likely be too late, the Boston field may well be full by then if the last two years are to be considered any sort of pattern. The days of registration staying open for months appear gone.

      "If you want to be a bad a$s, then do what a bad a$s does.  There's your pep talk for today.  Go Run." -- Slo_Hand

       

        Everytime someone asks "can I run __ time in __ weeks" here for a long distance race and that race is in the middle of the summer my first thought is "what is the forcast?" Temperature is a huge variable in the marathon.

          Here is where the pole bears live (joking). It is around 63F.

          5k - 20:56 (09/12), 7k - 28:40 (11/12), 10k trial - 43:08  (03/13), 42:05 (05/13), FM - 3:09:28 (05/13), HM - 1:28:20 (05/14), Failed 10K trial - 6:10/mi for 4mi (08/14), FM - 3:03 (09/14)

            I think its possible but unlikely. That's not to say you shouldn't give it a try.

            Runners run.


            Happy

              I hope you try, and I hope you do it. My 2 best efforts (not quite as fast as your marathon PR) prompted me to entertain breaking 3 hours on 2 occasions. Those attempts to break 3 resulted in a 3:43 and a 3:38. The variables played a huge role -- weather, primarily, but also my stupidity (over-training, wrong kinds of training, etc.).  I think you are in a much better place to do it than me, but I think your odds would be a lot better with a longer training cycle, and a fall (i.e., cooler temperature) marathon. Although that might mean waiting until 2016 to run Boston.  Good luck!

              "Strawberry cheesecake is my absolute favorite thing to eat after a marathon."  -- Meb Keflezighi

                Here is where the pole bears live (joking). It is around 63F.

                 

                If you're used to training in the 80s, 63 would be great. If you're used to training in the 40's, 63f would cook you in the marathon. Well, it would and does to me.

                  Too many variables to say....taking off 9 minutes is not a monumental task.  Especially if you really ran 3:09 off little training.

                   

                  Have you looked for an August or September marathon to give yourself more time -- and increase the odds of favorable temperatures?  And FYI October will likely be too late, the Boston field may well be full by then if the last two years are to be considered any sort of pattern. The days of registration staying open for months appear gone.

                   

                  There is actually a good flat race in September, only 45 minutes drive,  but shockingly they cap 4000 in total. Among them, only 100 run the marathon.

                   

                  Thanks for letting me know October would be too late for the Boston.

                  5k - 20:56 (09/12), 7k - 28:40 (11/12), 10k trial - 43:08  (03/13), 42:05 (05/13), FM - 3:09:28 (05/13), HM - 1:28:20 (05/14), Failed 10K trial - 6:10/mi for 4mi (08/14), FM - 3:03 (09/14)

                     

                    If you're used to training in the 80s, 63 would be great. If you're used to training in the 40's, 63f would cook you in the marathon. Well, it would and does to me.

                     

                    63 is not an ideal but I can probably bear it. Of course it would affect my performance.

                    5k - 20:56 (09/12), 7k - 28:40 (11/12), 10k trial - 43:08  (03/13), 42:05 (05/13), FM - 3:09:28 (05/13), HM - 1:28:20 (05/14), Failed 10K trial - 6:10/mi for 4mi (08/14), FM - 3:03 (09/14)

                      Thanks for all inputs. I decided to run in September, which give me 16 weeks to prepare. I contacted the race organizer and she said I should be able to get a spot as a few runners have cancelled. She would let me know next week.

                       

                      Now my question is what training plan I should follow. I like Pfitzinger's 55mi 12 week plan, but I am tempted to give 70mi 12 week a try as I heard many people here talking that it gives a significant improvement doing it. However I feel it is just too much running, especially the 2 week-day (Wednesday and Friday).

                       

                      It would be great to receive your thoughts.

                      5k - 20:56 (09/12), 7k - 28:40 (11/12), 10k trial - 43:08  (03/13), 42:05 (05/13), FM - 3:09:28 (05/13), HM - 1:28:20 (05/14), Failed 10K trial - 6:10/mi for 4mi (08/14), FM - 3:03 (09/14)

                      drifter


                        With aggressive goal, you should try aggressive plan. If you are injury free and handled 55mpw before, AM70 is a good try.

                         

                        I would suggest 3:03 goal instead to get to Boston.

                        BagOfSand


                          If you're 36, 3:10 gets you into Boston.  Focus on a conservative 3:08-3:09 pace for the September race and if you're still feeling in tip top shape go for a sub-3 in late fall/early winter.


                          HobbyJogger & HobbyRacer

                            Don't you need to run a couple minutes under the BQ time, to get into the actual Boston lottery?

                            It's a 5k. It hurt like hell...then I tried to pick it up. The end.

                            BagOfSand


                              There is no lottery, but if too many people sign up when sign ups first open, they lower the time until it knocks out enough people.  I am pretty confident that everyone that registers for Boston 2015 in September will get in.

                               

                              EDIT: I base this prediction on the fact that 2013 had no cut off.  2014 had an obvious increase in demand to register, and therefore a cut off.  2012 also had a cut off, but also had 5 minutes longer for the qualifying times.

                                Thanks for all inputs. I decided to run in September, which give me 16 weeks to prepare. I contacted the race organizer and she said I should be able to get a spot as a few runners have cancelled. She would let me know next week.

                                 

                                Now my question is what training plan I should follow. I like Pfitzinger's 55mi 12 week plan, but I am tempted to give 70mi 12 week a try as I heard many people here talking that it gives a significant improvement doing it. However I feel it is just too much running, especially the 2 week-day (Wednesday and Friday).

                                 

                                It would be great to receive your thoughts.

                                 

                                Here's what worked well for me, and others I know.  1) Bump up your mileage 2) Fast Finish Long Runs 3) Tempo/Tempo Intervals/Rhythm runs

                                Here's what I would SUGGEST (capitalizing to emphasize that I'm not a coach/elite etc).

                                 

                                1.) Bump up your mileage to 70 mpw using an up-up-down approach.  Example  - If you're currently running 55 mpw:  55 60 50 60 65 55 65 70 60 70- Then you should be able to hold the mileage there. This is also a conservative approach, mileage wise.  Your legs will be very tired during the initial ramp-up and the down week will help you absorb the new training stimulus and act as a safety net.

                                 

                                2.)  Fast Finish Long Runs - Start closing your long runs at MP or sub MP (6:52).  These teach your body to run fast while tired.  I would definitely have a base-building phase before trying them.  Once your long run is up to 18 - then try closing your last 4 miles at MP.  Work your way up to closing the last 7-10 miles of a 20 miler  @ 6:52 or faster.  These runs will take a little longer to recover from, so do not try following up the next weekend with the a HUGE long run.  Alternate instead - Example:

                                 

                                Week A Saturday - 18 miles with last 4 fast finish Sunday - Short Recovery Run (5-7miles)

                                Week B Saturday - 13 miles steady Sunday - 11 miles steady

                                Week C Saturday - 19 miles with last 5 fast finish Sunday - Short Recovery Run

                                 

                                3.)  Tempo/Tempo Intervals - Try getting a workout in during the week that's around half marathon pace.  Your CURRENT half marathon pace.  As you improve, this pace will of course get faster.

                                 

                                Tempo example - 2.5 miles up - 5 mile tempo @ HMP (Approximately 630-640) - 2.5 miles down.  This should be a moderately hard effort.

                                Tempo Interval examples - 2x5K, 3x3K with recovery jogs in between.

                                 

                                This should push up your lactate threshold and make your MP feel easier.

                                 

                                Fill in the rest of the days with EASY mileage.

                                 

                                Or just use Pfitzinger's plan.