Is sub 3 possible for me in 9 weeks? 16 weeks actually (Read 620 times)

Goorun


    If this thread didn't already have everything... I just ran this weeks speed workout as a 10,000 meter tempo on the track to get an idea of what you fools just talked David into doing. I feel mid 37 fit right now and running 38:59 alone was pretty rough. It was one of the harder tempos I've ever run.

     

    David, I think you are sub 2:10 30K fit right now. I stand by what I said earlier about the most miserable 3:20-30 marathon ever. You need at least a few more months.

     

    Nice.

    Solo 10000 meters as a tempo is very tough. Definitely sub 28 (EDIT: 38 )in a race and sub 3 marathon potential.

    You have to trust your training. Good marathon race execution is as much about the mental toughness as about your running ability.

    I still work on both.

    Slow and steady never wins anything.


    I'm back!

      Fastest pace for your marathon I would suggest is 7 mpm. That would give you 1:31:42 half.

       

      I'm gonna go out on a limb and still say sub-3 is not impossible. The failed time trial doesn't prove very much. If it were me --

       

      If running Boston 2015 is important, no question, pace for ~3:09. Start at 7:15, try to pick it up to 7:10 at the half.

       

      If it's more important to have fun and swing for the fences, start at 6:55, speed up to 6:50 at the half, and whatever you have left the last few miles.


      Feeling the growl again

         

        Nice.

        Solo 10000 meters as a tempo is very tough. Definitely sub 28 38 in a race and sub 3 marathon potential.

        You have to trust your training. Good marathon race execution is as much about the mental toughness as about your running ability.

        I still work on both.

         

        FTFY on the first count.

         

        On the second....absolutely.  Especially true coming out of a summer (hot) training cycle.  Temps fall off, amazing things can happen if the weather cooperates.

         

        In early August 2002 I ran a hilly 10-miler in 55-high.  I thought that was surprisingly good given what I'd struggled through for workouts in the heat of the summer, so on a whem (back when you could do this) I signed up for the Chicago Marathon.  In September I ran a relatively flat ~33:30 10K PR.  I kept hitting workouts well and progressing.  My marathon PR at the time was 2:36 from the prior spring.  Long story short I came through the half of the marathon very close to my HM PR, therefore doubting my ability to repeat it.  But at some point there I told myself that PRs were irrelevant, I had done the work, I just had to go with it.  It was like consciously throwing my limitations to the wind and just going with what I felt in the moment.  I ended up under 2:30, just over 2X my recent HM PR.

         

        You have to believe in yourself.  Not stupidly over-confident and always benchmarking on the best case scenario, but you have to be confident in your training and your ability to execute.  I guarantee if you don't believe you can do it that you won't.

        "If you want to be a bad a$s, then do what a bad a$s does.  There's your pep talk for today.  Go Run." -- Slo_Hand

         


        Feeling the growl again

           

          I'm gonna go out on a limb and still say sub-3 is not impossible. 

           

          If running Boston 2015 is important, no question, pace for ~3:09. 

           

          This, it comes down to your goal.  If it is Boston, just go for the qualifier through 20 miles and if you feel good there then pick it up.  If you want to swing for the fences fine....but accept that it may cost you Boston if you fail.

          "If you want to be a bad a$s, then do what a bad a$s does.  There's your pep talk for today.  Go Run." -- Slo_Hand

           


          I'm back!

            You have to believe in yourself.  Not stupidly over-confident and always benchmarking on the best case scenario, but you have to be confident in your training and your ability to execute.  I guarantee if you don't believe you can do it that you won't.

             

            +1

              No advice - but I have to say I have loved reading this thread - great experienced opinions - debate and just overall what you would want to see on a running website.

               

              Kudos to all you contributors -   and best of luck to David - in deciding on your goal and in your best effort to attain it.

              Ready, go.

               

                 

                Bam.  You got this.  So you can credit this tempo after and buy me a beer when I am in Boston next April.  Wink

                Yeah, I'd buy plenty of people beers if I could get that monkey off my back. I think FSBD is gonna be my pacer. He doesn't know that yet.

                   

                  Nice.

                  Solo 10000 meters as a tempo is very tough. Definitely sub 28 (EDIT: 38 )in a race and sub 3 marathon potential.

                  You have to trust your training. Good marathon race execution is as much about the mental toughness as about your running ability.

                  I still work on both.

                   

                  I liked the sub 28 more.

                    No advice - but I have to say I have loved reading this thread - great experienced opinions - debate and just overall what you would want to see on a running website.

                     

                    Kudos to all you contributors -   and best of luck to David - in deciding on your goal and in your best effort to attain it.

                    +1! This is a great thread. Special thanks to David for putting your goal out there so we can all learn (and good luck...).

                      David,

                       

                      Don't worry too much about the time trial (apart from the pacing!).  Usually you'll have the odd failed workout within a training cycle and you may not have failed had you run 6:10 for the 1st mile.  I've had a couple of bail outs in my current build up but I've also had some very good workouts too.

                       

                      Just learn from the pacing and move forward - too fast a start in the marathon will have a far worse ending!

                       

                      I don't know why but I think given the 3:09 (which I suspect was off less training) I think you'll be close....

                       

                      MTA: I'm also loving this thread....

                        I've not really learned anything from this thread but do find it interesting. Is sub 2:50 possible for me in 6 weeks?


                        Feeling the growl again

                          David,

                           

                          Don't worry too much about the time trial (apart from the pacing!).  Usually you'll have the odd failed workout within a training cycle 

                           

                          +1.  I even have a special workout type called "Screwed the Pooch" with a black bar in the graph so I can track these.  I did that so that I can basically just write it off and not look at it as a tempo or whatever it was supposed to be when I started.  I don't worry unless I start having several of those black bars close together.

                          "If you want to be a bad a$s, then do what a bad a$s does.  There's your pep talk for today.  Go Run." -- Slo_Hand

                           

                            I've not really learned anything from this thread but do find it interesting. Is sub 2:50 possible for me in 6 weeks?

                             

                            Ask me again after lone gull.

                            Runners run.

                               

                              I'm gonna go out on a limb and still say sub-3 is not impossible. The failed time trial doesn't prove very much. If it were me --

                               

                              If running Boston 2015 is important, no question, pace for ~3:09. Start at 7:15, try to pick it up to 7:10 at the half.

                               

                              If it's more important to have fun and swing for the fences, start at 6:55, speed up to 6:50 at the half, and whatever you have left the last few miles.

                               

                              Running Boston 2015 is not important. Costing $1500 to race it is not that attractive to me.

                               

                              I am going to try your pacing strategy. The good news is that the last 5km is all downhill. I hope I will pick up the pace a little. Here is the elevation profile.

                               

                              5k - 20:56 (09/12), 7k - 28:40 (11/12), 10k trial - 43:08  (03/13), 42:05 (05/13), FM - 3:09:28 (05/13), HM - 1:28:20 (05/14), Failed 10K trial - 6:10/mi for 4mi (08/14), FM - 3:03 (09/14)

                              Goorun


                                 

                                Running Boston 2015 is not important. Costing $1500 to race it is not that attractive to me.

                                 

                                I am going to try your pacing strategy. The good news is that the last 5km is all downhill. I hope I will pick up the pace a little. Here is the elevation profile.

                                 

                                I have always been an aggressive runner, I don't hold back and I've never ran a negative split in a marathon. Because of that, only about 30% of my marathons (about 10 races sub 2:24) I'd consider good results for me. I also run best on rolling hills like the one you will race.

                                Saying all that, I would strongly suggest to stay at least with 3:00 pacer if there is one (or if there is 3:10 that would be ideal). You have to feel like you are just cruising at least till 15 miles.

                                Everybody struggle in the last few miles of a marathon, but you don't want to turn it to painful dead-march.

                                When I was a kid, I told my mom that I will run faster marathon than Zatopek (I was reading about him that time). She patted me on the head and said sure son. Years latter, I gave her the medal from the race I did it and it's been her priced possession since.

                                Hope you have a good race David and if you prove me wrong and get sub 3, I'll be more than happy for you.

                                Slow and steady never wins anything.