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| London Marathon (Read 651 times) |
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posted: 4/10/2008 at 3:50 AM
modified: 4/10/2008 at 3:50 AM |
This is the most competitive men's marathon in the world this year, so let's talk about it. Who do you think will win? Here's the men's field:
* Felix Limo (KEN), 2:06:14, 2006 race champion
* Emmanuel Mutai (KEN), 2:06:29, 2007 ING Amsterdam Marathon champion
* Sammy Wanjiru (KEN), 2:06:39, 2007 Fukuoka Marathon winner; half-marathon world record holder
* Martin Lel (KEN), 2:06:41, defending champion/2005 race champion and 2007 NYC champion
* Hendrick Ramaala (RSA), 2:06:55, 2004 ING NYC champion
* Jaouad Gharib (MAR), 2:07:02, two-time world champion
* Stefano Baldini (ITA), 2:07:22, 2004 Olympic Marathon gold medalist
* Yonas Kifle (ERI), 2:07:34, 2005 World Half-Marathon Championship bronze medalist
* Abderrahim Goumri (MAR), 2:07:44, 2007 NYC and London runner-up
* Ryan Hall (USA), 2:08:24, U.S. Olympic Marathon Trials champion
* Luke Kibet (KEN), 2:08:52, 2007 world champion
* Aleksey Sokolov (RUS), 2:09:07, 2007 adidas Dublin Marathon winner
* Meb Keflezighi (USA), 2:09:53, 2004 Olympic Marathon silver medalist
I wrote a preview on my blog, complete with odds from British gambling sites:
http://adeel.blogspot.com/2008/04/most-competitive-marathon-of-year-at.html
I predict Wanjiru in 2:05:30-2:06:30.
The women's field is wide open without Paula Radcliffe:
Gete Wami
Berhane Adere
Constantina Tomescu-Dita
Selina Kosgei
Adriana Pirtea
Pirtea made her debut at Chicago last year where she was going to win until she obliviously blew kisses to the crowd and got passed by Adere. Wami won Berlin and then came back five weeks later to hang with Paula Radcliffe for about 26 miles in New York. I pick Wami. |
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milkbaby |
posted: 4/10/2008 at 6:42 AM |
On the men's side, it is very wide open because there is almost too much talent. Wanjiru is a good pick because he is young and still has a lot of potential at the distance. On the other hand, in a fast AND tactical race, I pick Limo or Lel: whoever is sharpest and makes the last decisive countermove. 
On the women's side, Wami is just such a tough competitor. If she doesn't win, whoever beats her will have to run their guts out. If Dita hasn't learned from past races, I predict she will set a very fast initial pace, but the other contenders will wait and reel her in.
Should be another good race... shame it's not on TV in the States for my viewing pleasure... |
"You must be the change you wish to see in the world."
-- Mahatma Gandhi
"I have need to be all on fire, for I have mountains of ice about me to melt."
-- William Lloyd Garrison
"The marathon is an art; the marathoner is an artist."
-- Kiyoshi Nakamura |
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| view log i can has marathawn? |
posted: 4/10/2008 at 2:26 PM |
| I know she's a dark horse contender, but my money's on freckles in a major upset. Make it so freckles. |
Ed
Bib #10 at the Tuesday night Good Times 5K series in Lowell, MA (so sad it's over, mark your calendar for opening night on 4/2/09)
2008 goal: HTFU and BQ at BayState Marathon
Beer is proof that God loves us, and wants us to be happy. |
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posted: 4/10/2008 at 3:28 PM |
| Quote from Dustin on 4/10/2008 at 1:47 PM: This is a really stacked field... I hope Ryan does well against these guys. I think Hall's best chance is a fast race, maybe 2:05-2:06. Lel is a great racer, as is Goumri. If it's a repeat of New York, which had a lot of fast surges or London 2007, where six guys were together at 40k, Hall's going to get left behind. If it's a fast pace early on, I can't see too many people sticking around. Of course, Hall might not stick around himself if it's a fast pace. It's definitely a very unpredictable race.
You can watch this Sunday starting at 4:45 am New York time at wcsn.com. |
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Runners bliss view log |
posted: 4/10/2008 at 8:14 PM
modified: 4/10/2008 at 8:14 PM |
| On the women's side my bet is "Berhane Adere" and on the men's side it is "Sammy Wanjiru " |
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milkbaby |
posted: 4/10/2008 at 8:20 PM |
| Quote from adeel on 4/10/2008 at 3:28 PM: I think Hall's best chance is a fast race, maybe 2:05-2:06. Lel is a great racer, as is Goumri. If it's a repeat of New York, which had a lot of fast surges or London 2007, where six guys were together at 40k, Hall's going to get left behind. If it's a fast pace early on, I can't see too many people sticking around. Of course, Hall might not stick around himself if it's a fast pace. It's definitely a very unpredictable race.
I think a sub-2:06 race favors Wanjiru, not Hall, and probably favors Wanjiru over everybody else! Hall is not going to be able to surprise anybody after last year's showing which was terrific. The pack is definitely going to be eyeing everybody. I don't think there's much chance for anybody to pull off a Gomes dos Santos NYC-like win (where he ran off for the win when everybody assumed he'd fall back to the pack).
It's going to be a sick race... If Ryan Hall is in good shape, I predict a PR for him. Also of note, Meb is a scratch from the London field as he said he is "not fit". He is focusing on making the US team for the 10000m, so the London marathon doesn't fit in with that. Unfortunately for him, I think he has/had the potential to run a faster marathon, but he just hadn't gotten in the right race at the right time. Now depending on his health, he may never set a new marathon PR. |
"You must be the change you wish to see in the world."
-- Mahatma Gandhi
"I have need to be all on fire, for I have mountains of ice about me to melt."
-- William Lloyd Garrison
"The marathon is an art; the marathoner is an artist."
-- Kiyoshi Nakamura |
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posted: 4/11/2008 at 2:22 AM |
| Quote from milkbaby on 4/10/2008 at 8:20 PM: I think a sub-2:06 race favors Wanjiru, not Hall, and probably favors Wanjiru over everybody else! Well, Hall isn't going to outkick anyone. The odds don't favour him obviously, he's just not that good. If there are eight guys together at 40k, he's going to be in some trouble.
A very fast pace would favour Wanjiru for sure, but he could easily drag along 3-4 guys to a breakout performance, and it could be anyone's race at that point if there's a few of them together at 40k. |
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freckles view log |
posted: 4/11/2008 at 6:42 AM |
Quote from BadDawg on 4/10/2008 at 2:26 PM:I know she's a dark horse contender, but my money's on freckles in a major upset. Make it so freckles.
Now that Paula is out I'm feeling confident of a win  |
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| view log Wish I were there |
posted: 4/11/2008 at 9:20 AM |
Quote from BadDawg on 4/10/2008 at 2:26 PM:I know she's a dark horse contender, but my money's on freckles in a major upset. Make it so freckles.
Mine too. Go kick some marathon butt, Freckles! |
~Michelle
Southeastern PA Group
Know what's weird? Day by day, nothing seems to change, but pretty soon...everything's different. - Calvin from Calvin and Hobbes |
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| view log No one's nemesis |
posted: 4/11/2008 at 12:10 PM |
| Go Freckles!! WOOT!!! |
Rick
"The will to win means nothing without the will to prepare." - Juma Ikangaa
"I wanna go fast." Ricky Bobby
runningforcassy.blogspot.com
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Mizzou-rah Tigers! |
posted: 4/11/2008 at 2:42 PM |
Quote from BadDawg on 4/10/2008 at 2:26 PM:I know she's a dark horse contender, but my money's on freckles in a major upset. Make it so freckles.
Ditto that!! That girl's going to rock it!! |
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posted: 4/11/2008 at 3:34 PM |
ryan hall and london marathon coverage from today's ny times:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/11/sports/othersports/11marathon.html?st=cse&sq=ryan+hall&scp=1 |
| http://rundangerously.blogspot.com
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| view log Getting there... |
posted: 4/12/2008 at 3:21 AM |
| Ryan Hall...or I'll eat my shorts. |
~ Dave ~
clubhouseleader 'at' gmail 'dot' com / www.daddyo.ca
Success is sweet and sweeter if long delayed and gotten through many struggles and defeats.
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