2011 Goal of Sub-3:00 Marathon (Read 8000 times)

DoppleBock


    Of course this is all generalities - Some runners do not fall well into "Averages"

     

    So  gilbertlemieux - What was your 1/2M time

     

    My scale of 1:25-1:26 as solid are from most of the people in the Sub 3 thread's average experience.  I think it falls close into what Mikey is saying.  I have seen some people do 1:27 and still eek out a sub 3:00.  This usually is because the marathon course was easier or better weather day ... so I think 2x 1/2M + 6 minutes might be the line between "Good Chance" versus "Long Shot"

     

    I happen to have never tapered for a half marathon.  Heck my PR was during one of my top 10 mileage weeks of all time.

     

    Since Nov 2011 - Dec 2012 goal is to set new PRS in

    5k - 5M - 10K - 10M - 1/2M - Mar - 50k - 24 hour

     

    I will be tapering for shorter races in the next 14 months - The bold underlined PRs are the weak ones.

    http://a-big-horse.blogspot.com/ 

    2013 Goals ~ Mar < 3:00, 5M < 29, 10k < 35  

     


    I'm back!

      I think running sub-3 off 1:27 would be pretty exceptional, without an improvement in fitness in the meantime, or a big course disparity.

       

      I've run sub-3 twice, first off 1:26:35, then off 1:26:03 -- and I felt fortunate. I considered those times very marginal, and most distance comparison calculators agree.

        Even 6 minutes is unusual for non-elite males.  On 60 mpw I'd say the old "double it and add 10 minutes" rule is probably aggressive for most people.

         

        The best I've managed within a marathon training cycle is 2 x hm + 9 minutes.

         

        This passes the sniff test.  Of the sub-3's I've run it's ranged from double + 7:06 to double + 12:54.  Much of that due to course differences.  


        I'm back!

          My Boston this year was double + 6:35. But we did have a huge tailwind.


          Feeling the growl again

            Even 6 minutes is unusual for non-elite males.  On 60 mpw I'd say the old "double it and add 10 minutes" rule is probably aggressive for most people.

             

            The best I've managed within a marathon training cycle is 2 x hm + 9 minutes.

             

            It's really hard to say given the variables....I've done from 2XHM+3 to 2XHM+7.

            "If you want to be a bad a$s, then do what a bad a$s does.  There's your pep talk for today.  Go Run." -- Slo_Hand

             

            gilbertlemieux


              My HM was 1:24:27; mostly flat course except for a 1/4 mile hill around mile 10.  The Philly coursed is also flattish, with some rolling hills in the first 8-10 miles.  I was doing 60ish for the last month (I think my log is open if you want to take a look), but have been having lower leg problems recently which forced me to "taper" for the HM, which I wasn't planning to do.  I'm hoping to get in 50 for the next two weeks, but unsure how my legs will respond.  Basically I'm worried about having blown my fitness on the HM and being out of shape for the full.

                It's really hard to say given the variables....I've done from 2XHM+3 to 2XHM+7.

                 

                True, so many variables go into that.  Sadly, I've never come close to those numbers. When I thought I was in sub 3:00 shape, after running a 1:20 half, I death-marched my way to a 3:23 full. Okay, so it was a bit warm for the full compared to the half, but I've come to realize the formulas and prediction tables don't mean squat for me.  This is what keeps me coming back to try, "just one more time."

                  My HM was 1:24:27; mostly flat course except for a 1/4 mile hill around mile 10.  The Philly coursed is also flattish, with some rolling hills in the first 8-10 miles.  I was doing 60ish for the last month (I think my log is open if you want to take a look), but have been having lower leg problems recently which forced me to "taper" for the HM, which I wasn't planning to do.  I'm hoping to get in 50 for the next two weeks, but unsure how my legs will respond.  Basically I'm worried about having blown my fitness on the HM and being out of shape for the full.

                   

                  You are definitely in the ball park, though I would say it was a tight call.

                   

                  I wouldn't worry about losing fitness if you can keep at a 50 miles a week for the next 2 weeks, that should retain the fitness you've built up perfectly well.

                   

                  I'm with Mikeymike & BoilerTom in that 2 x HM + 10 is still pretty aggressive.  I've not got close to that yet in my few attempts.  You'll have to pace a very very good race to hit it.  I've done three and I've gone too fast, conservative to good and then slightly too fast in the first halves.  I'm hoping to get it just right next spring!

                   

                  Good luck!

                    You are definitely in the ball park, though I would say it was a tight call.

                     

                    I agree.  With a 1:24:27 you have a right to expect a sub 3 and should go for it--but it will be close.  You can't go out too fast.  If you go through half around 1:29:30 - 1:30:00, you should give yourself a really good chance.  Don't try to "bank time" by going through half any faster than that or you will pay it back with steep interest later.

                    Runners run.


                    Feeling the growl again

                      True, so many variables go into that.  Sadly, I've never come close to those numbers. When I thought I was in sub 3:00 shape, after running a 1:20 half, I death-marched my way to a 3:23 full. Okay, so it was a bit warm for the full compared to the half, but I've come to realize the formulas and prediction tables don't mean squat for me.  This is what keeps me coming back to try, "just one more time."

                       

                      My examples were all from the context of someone who had been running many years before running those marathons, and had a history of 50-60 mpw (or more) as well.  I'd consider it the higher end of what is possible for the recreational runner.

                      "If you want to be a bad a$s, then do what a bad a$s does.  There's your pep talk for today.  Go Run." -- Slo_Hand

                       

                        I agree.  With a 1:24:27 you have a right to expect a sub 3 and should go for it--but it will be close.  You can't go out too fast.  If you go through half around 1:29:30 - 1:30:00, you should give yourself a really good chance.  Don't try to "bank time" by going through half any faster than that or you will pay it back with steep interest later.

                         

                        +1. Been there done that (banking time). In race with even pacing it is still easy to slow down over the last 10K without knowing you are doing it. In a race where you went out too fast, the last 10K it can seem near impossible to run even 30 seconds slower than pace.


                        The King of Beasts

                          I ran 2:58:52 with a 1:27:30 half PR.

                           

                          now the question is why haven't I done shit with my 1:17:05

                          "As a dreamer of dreams and a travelin' man I have chalked up many a mile. Read dozens of books about heroes and crooks, And I've learned much from both of their styles." ~ Jimmy Buffett

                           

                          "I don't see much sense in that," said Rabbit. "No," said Pooh humbly, "there isn't. But there was going to be when I began it. It's just that something happened to it along the way."”

                            My scale of 1:25-1:26 as solid are from most of the people in the Sub 3 thread's average experience.  I think it falls close into what Mikey is saying.  I have seen some people do 1:27 and still eek out a sub 3:00.  This usually is because the marathon course was easier or better weather day ... so I think 2x 1/2M + 6 minutes might be the line between "Good Chance" versus "Long Shot"

                             

                            Hmmm. Guess this is one of the reasons I chose not to race before my attempt. I'll definately be in the "long shot" line, but training has been solid. Six weeks to go. 

                             

                            gilbertlemieux, good luck.

                              I ran a 1:23 half and then death marched at Boston to a 3:17 on a "perfect day." it can def be done but i also think it depends how many marathons you have done and how you felt after your half marathon.
                                I ran a 1:23 half and then death marched at Boston to a 3:17 on a "perfect day." it can def be done but i also think it depends how many marathons you have done and how you felt after your half marathon.

                                 

                                ah, misery loves company! For Boston, I went 1:22ish 1/2M on a hilly course to a 3:07. That was better than prior 1/2M/full combinations. 

                                 

                                With this latest training cycle, I've noticed after my big workouts that I'm not nearly as beat up, felt strong at the end, and I recovered quicker. I'm hoping that translates into a solid race this weekend. It's also a confidence boost that I've ran as much as 16 miles of a 20 mile run at or faster than my goal MP. The weather forecast looks perfect so far. I also know anything can happen on race day, and it's normally bad.