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Parrot Predictor (Read 1624 times)

    Let me ask a clarifying question, in case I don't understand this.

     

    Suppose I ran:

    • 10mi easy on Monday
    • 5mi tempo on Tuesday
    • 10mi easy on Wednesday,
    • 6mi steady-state on Thursday

     

    The Parrot Predictor would use most of my Monday run, all of my Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday runs, to say how fast a "marathon" I ran, albeit with overnight aid station breaks?

     

    Is there utility in this, or is this just for giggles?

     

    When you are doing faster long runs and speedwork, it is an indicator of how well you MIGHT be able to do.

     

    Some reading about it...

    And you can quote me as saying I was mis-quoted. Groucho Marx

     

    Rob

       

      When you are doing faster long runs and speedwork, it is an indicator of how well you MIGHT be able to do.

       

      Some reading about it...

       

      But ... when you're doing decent mileage, faster long runs, and speedwork, don't you already kinda know how well you might be able to do? Probably with more accuracy than any predictor that uses your training runs as a basis?

       

      This concept seems really goofy to me. Like Yasso 800s only slightly less idiotic.

      Runners run.


      The Irreverent Reverand

         

        But ... when you're doing decent mileage, faster long runs, and speedwork, don't you already kinda know how well you might be able to do? Probably with more accuracy than any predictor that uses your training runs as a basis?

         

        This concept seems really goofy to me. Like Yasso 800s only slightly less idiotic.

         

        +1

        Husband. Father of three. Lutheran pastor. National Guardsman. Runner. Political junkie. Baseball fan.

         

        Goals for 2014:

        Sub-3:30 marathon; run for a year free from major injuries or interruptions

        PRs: 3:27 marathon; 1:41 half; 45:07 10K; 23:26 5K; 6:02 mile; <12 parsecs Kessel Run

           

          But ... when you're doing decent mileage, faster long runs, and speedwork, don't you already kinda know how well you might be able to do? Probably with more accuracy than any predictor that uses your training runs as a basis?

           

          This concept seems really goofy to me. Like Yasso 800s only slightly less idiotic.

           

          Potentially, but it is just another indicator.

           

          Everyone has different things they use to gauge fitness.

           

          Some have to run races, others look at their paces and some look at specific workouts.

           

          It was included in a spreadsheet log I used many years ago and at the time was a pretty good indicator for me.  I have stopped using the log because this site is easier due to GPS import and has many better features.  However, if I could have a widget that does the calculation -- cool beans...

          And you can quote me as saying I was mis-quoted. Groucho Marx

           

          Rob


          HobbyJogger & HobbyRacer

             

             

            Some reading about it...

             

            From the linked article:

             

            The idea, called the Parrott Predictor, was put forward by George Parrott an ultra-marathoner and professor at Cal State Sacramento. It says that a person’s time in a marathon will be no faster than the fastest cumulative 26.2 miles run any week during their marathon training. Figure out your fastest miles during a week of training and add up the best 26.2 of them and that will be the fastest you can run a marathon.

             

            Apparently everyone on this thread has been misspelling it. Also it sounds kind of baseless. I bet my last four serious marathons are all faster than this estimator would predict. But if RA actually calculated this, especially as a post hoc report, then I could say more definitely that it is a bad predictor Smile

            It's a 5k. It hurt like hell...then I tried to pick it up. The end.

              Thank you AP - I was confused about what the bird had to do with this. Smile

              Well at least someone here is making relevance to the subject.

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