But what price a 3:30 mile? According to Dr Greg Whyte, EIS National Physical Sports Science Coordinator, it could be achieved in the next 30 years…

Q: Can El Guerrouj’s current mile record of 3:43:13 really be broken by over 13 seconds?

Mathematically, if you look at the historical rate of improvement, we can predict – through the use of a linear regression model – that the 3:30 mile will be broken between 2026 and 2041. In reality, there are certain conditions that may limit this.

Q: That’s a massive improvement. What sort of speed would you need to run to break the 3:30 barrier?

An athlete would need to maintain a velocity of 17.1mph throughout the race – to give you some idea how quick that is, you would need to run 800m twice in 1:45 seconds. Given that Wilson Kipketer’s 800m world record stands at 1:41:11, you can imagine how difficult that is to achieve.

Q: There must be a limit though?

There is undoubtedly a limit to how fast the mile can be run and a 3:30 mile is probably approaching that limit. It’s defined by physiology – the ability of the body to produce energy and to balance the production of that energy with the ability to effectively expel the heat produced.

We’re never going to get down to zero. If you take the 100m as an example, male sprinters are probably reaching 26 or 27mph at most, a speed which is sustained for just ten seconds, so a mile is never realistically going to be run at that sort of pace.

Q: If that’s the case, what accounts for the improvement? Presumably we haven’t changed physiologically?

No. To understand the level of improvement, it’s important to understand the impact that coaching science, sports science and sports medicine have had. At the time Bannister’s successful attempt adopted a new style of training and, for the first time made use of coaching science.

The continual investment in sports science and sports medicine since, and the technical advances including all-weather tracks, lighter footwear and clothing which helps the body expel heat more effectively, helps to understand why we’ve been able to improve. However, because we’ve been doing those things for fifty years, we’re probably close to reaching the optimal in running events like the mile.