# Realistic First Marathon Target time (Read 3779 times)

Ok, got the Paris Marathon in April.

Been training approx 40 miles per week since start of Jan.  My intention is move up to 60 - 70 miles per week as we get closer, and use the last two weeks to taper down.  I have run only the half marathon distance no further yet.

Last 10K race, one week ago was 54.00 Minutes.  Previous PBs when fitter for Half was 1 hr 41, and 43 mins for 10K.  Running pace around 8 min per mile, and much slower like 10 min per mile on the long runs - I want to get near 7.30 per minute for marathon time.  At the moment my weight is too high and it needs to come down.

Ok - is 3.30 realistic with enough training at this stage, or  faster.  Or should I just concentrate on trying to get under 4 hours at this stage.

I see many of the training programmes say to taper 3 or 4 weeks before, but I am thinking, I'd like to push training until say a week and half before it.

Also they say only one longish run a week, and don't go over 20 mile in one run.  I don't feel that tired after a long run. Anything wrong with just  trying run the entire distance say 4 weeks before.

Julia1971

Last 10K race, one week ago was 54.00 Minutes.  Previous PBs when fitter for Half was 1 hr 41, and 43 mins for 10K.  Running pace around 8 min per mile, and much slower like 10 min per mile on the long runs - I want to get near 7.30 per minute for marathon time.  At the moment my weight is too high and it needs to come down.

Ok - is 3.30 realistic with enough training at this stage, or  faster.  Or should I just concentrate on trying to get under 4 hours at this stage.

You don't say when that half marathon was, but conventional wisdom is to base projected marathon time on a very recent race time, rather than a personal best or something. I plugged your 10K time into McMillan's Running Calculator and got 4:13:25. So, I think 3:30 is probably very ambitious, even with the increase in mileage. But, if you get a race time between now and then that could justify the faster time, then go for it.

I see many of the training programmes say to taper 3 or 4 weeks before, but I am thinking, I'd like to push training until say a week and half before it.

Also they say only one longish run a week, and don't go over 20 mile in one run.  I don't feel that tired after a long run. Anything wrong with just  trying run the entire distance say 4 weeks before.

I think you'll get a lot of varying opinions re tapers and long run, so I'll just relay what I did for my first (and only) marathon.  Psychologically, I wanted to run the time I thought I'd be out there (3:40), so I did one run that was something like 22 miles.  It was rough and I'm not sure it really benefitted me.  I struggled/panicked during the middle miles; not at the end.  And, I liked the 3 week taper.  I peaked at 70ish, like you're hoping to do, so cutting back was still good mileage.

“What counts is not necessarily the size of the dog in the fight – it’s the fight in the dog. – Dwight D. Eisenhower

My blog is JT Running DC.  It's awesome.

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With 42 miles per week I got under 4 hours for my first, so under 4 is definitely achievable, but I think it's impossible to guess your finishing time until you see those long mileage weeks, some good fast tempos, etc, but you're definitely getting there with your mileage and previous times.  I've got those same finishing times for the 10 and the half, yet did my second marathon in around 4:25.  The marathon is really a whole different beast, and not even a 20 mile training run is remotely like the event.  I don't have any issue here with your mileage, but do some tempos and don't fall into the trap of not adequately tapering.  There's a logical reason why experts tell you not to run for 2-4 weeks after a marathon, so I would definitely not recommend putting your muscles through a marathon training distance prior to the day.

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I think you'll get some advice to train where you're at, not where you want to be, as I've been given it myself lately.  Solid advice...

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If you raced a 54 min 10K last week, you won't be hitting 3:30 for a marathon in April. I would not have a strict goal for your first marathon. Get yourself fit and enjoy the experience without pressure of time goals. No need to do more than a 3 hour long run and this should occur 14 - 21 days before the event.  I would recommend working up to doing a few 2:30 - 3:00 long runs and comfortable pace but progress gradually. If you don't get in 3 hr long runs, you can still complete the marathon fine with proper pacing. You have a lot of work to do. April is right around the corner. WE need to know a bit more of your running schedule/paces in last 6 months

Those who try, fail! Those who do what it takes to succeed, succeed!!

DoppleBock

I personally would run the 1st 20 miles @ a conservative realistic pace and kick the last 6.2 miles in the ass.

When I ran my 1st marathon I ran the 1st 20 miles with someone chatting the whole way - 2:28 and the last 10 miles in 41:48

I could have been faster running more agressively the 1st 20, but it was an awesome possitive experience by being a little slower the 1st 20 and finisheing strong.

Retired 1/1/13 ... Tired of being broken and fat  ... New goal 12/29/15 - To be able to enjoy running 4-5 hours through the woods again in 2016.

If it was a standard road 10k (not up a mountain or something) then a 3:30 marathon two and a half months from now is not realistic--nor is 4 hours for that matter.

How long ago were you in 43-minute 10k shape?

Runners run.

When I ran my 1st marathon I ran the 1st 20 miles with someone chatting the whole way - 2:28 and the last 10 miles in 41:48

Leave it to Dopple Bock to run a 30 mile marathon

What they said.  A marathon is a different beast from a 10K or half.  Just focus on being strong throughout, without trying to do anything amazing for marathon #1.

Well at least someone here is making relevance to the subject. - S.J.

Ok, got the Paris Marathon in April.

Been training approx 40 miles per week since start of Jan.  My intention is move up to 60 - 70 miles per week as we get closer, and use the last two weeks to taper down.  I have run only the half marathon distance no further yet.

Last 10K race, one week ago was 54.00 Minutes.  Previous PBs when fitter for Half was 1 hr 41, and 43 mins for 10K.  Running pace around 8 min per mile, and much slower like 10 min per mile on the long runs - I want to get near 7.30 per minute for marathon time.  At the moment my weight is too high and it needs to come down.

Ok - is 3.30 realistic with enough training at this stage, or  faster.  Or should I just concentrate on trying to get under 4 hours at this stage.

I see many of the training programmes say to taper 3 or 4 weeks before, but I am thinking, I'd like to push training until say a week and half before it.

Also they say only one longish run a week, and don't go over 20 mile in one run.  I don't feel that tired after a long run. Anything wrong with just  trying run the entire distance say 4 weeks before.

Sorry, buddy, but I don't even know where to begin...  I think Julie was very nice and she was politically correct--or simply really nice.  If you HAVE run 10k in 43 minutes and you have just run 54 minutes and you had started training since start of January; chances are, you are pretty out of shape right now.  It'll probably take somewhere around 3~4 week just to get back in that level.  And THEN your marathon training program should start.  I don't know when your marathon is other than "April" but you'll be lucky to have 5 or 6 weeks.  And, at that level, at least 3 of that should be used for taper.  That means you practically need 3 weeks to train for a marathon.  My best advice is; don't.

Good news is; if you really want to do it (I'm sure you have already paid for it and you wouldn't want to waste it); you CAN get ready to finish the marathon but don't even think about any specific time; let alone 3:30.  Concentrate on simply FINSHING.  I'm assuming, I could very well be wrong though, that you are some young relatively active guy who thinks you can just hop in some road race and run 50-minutes 10k without much training.  And, because of that, probably got trapped in a thought that, if-that-old-fart-can-run-sub-4-marathon-there's-no-reason-why-I-can't idea.  26-miler ain't that kind.

If you're running at 8-minute pace but it takes somewhere around 10 to do the long run (though I have NO idea what your normal workout duration is or what your LONG RUN is), chances are; you probably painfully lack stamina.  You may be able to run near-8 pace 10k without much training, and even though you HAVE run 1:40 half God knows how long ago, you are as good as your last performance.  I have run 2:44 marathon 25 pounds ago (how many years ago???) but I won't even get near that to predict my performance now.

Also, I know some other people would probably argue but my take is that most Americans train way too hard.  If you bearly get near 8-minute pace, I wouldn't even try to go beyond 20-miles.  3-hour MAX.

The time, or pace, should come naturally.  Any prediction should come from what you're doing right now and how it's going.  Coming up with the number like; "Oh, I want to be doing 7:30 pace..." out of blue is one of the worst things to do.  I'd be curious to hear where you get the idea of 3:30 being realistic when you just ran 54-minute 10k a week ago; and where you get the idea of you'd like to be running 26 consecutive 7:30 miles when you bearly done 8 for 6 miles?

Again, I could be very wrong with this but I have a feeling you'd probably go ahead and do what you want anyways.  I'd be very curious to find out, if you did 26-miler 4 weeks before your marathon, see how all that would pan out for you.  At this point, I wouldn't even recommend you trying to get up to 70MPW.  But, hey, that's me.  Let us know how you do your first marathon in April.

I look my best blurry!

Leave it to Dopple Bock to run a 30 mile marathon

I look my best blurry!

Ok, got the Paris Marathon in April.

Been training approx 40 miles per week since start of Jan.  My intention is move up to 60 - 70 miles per week as we get closer, and use the last two weeks to taper down.  I have run only the half marathon distance no further yet.

Last 10K race, one week ago was 54.00 Minutes.  Previous PBs when fitter for Half was 1 hr 41, and 43 mins for 10K.  Running pace around 8 min per mile, and much slower like 10 min per mile on the long runs - I want to get near 7.30 per minute for marathon time.  At the moment my weight is too high and it needs to come down.

Ok - is 3.30 realistic with enough training at this stage, or  faster.  Or should I just concentrate on trying to get under 4 hours at this stage.

I see many of the training programmes say to taper 3 or 4 weeks before, but I am thinking, I'd like to push training until say a week and half before it.

Also they say only one longish run a week, and don't go over 20 mile in one run.  I don't feel that tired after a long run. Anything wrong with just  trying run the entire distance say 4 weeks before.

How old are you?  When was your half marathon distance?  What was the pace for 13.1?  What were you doing before Jan?  For how long?  Why are you doing this NOW?  Maybe you are just a newbie and therefore don't understand what would be a realistic goal.  I've definitely done that myself.

These people know what they are talking about.  Listen to them.  I do!

A recent 54 min 10k would suggest that you should be looking at around 4:08 for the marathon. The fact that you've been in better shape in the past is in your favour, but it is your first marathon so be conservative. How long ago was your 43 min 10km? How is your weight now compared with then? (It's not always politically correct to point it out - but weight is a very significant factor for distance running.)

I would not worry too much about the time for this one - go out nice and easy, if you feel strong at 20 miles then kick on. This can be a sighter to set a target time for your next one.

To get an idea whether your target time is realistic try doing the second half of one of your longer training runs at target marathon pace.

Consistently Slow

Sorry, buddy, but I don't even know where to begin...  I think Julie was very nice and she was politically correct--or simply really nice.  If you HAVE run 10k in 43 minutes and you have just run 54 minutes and you had started training since start of January; chances are, you are pretty out of shape right now.  It'll probably take somewhere around 3~4 week just to get back in that level.  And THEN your marathon training program should start.  I don't know when your marathon is other than "April" but you'll be lucky to have 5 or 6 weeks.  And, at that level, at least 3 of that should be used for taper.  That means you practically need 3 weeks to train for a marathon.  My best advice is; don't.

Good news is; if you really want to do it (I'm sure you have already paid for it and you wouldn't want to waste it); you CAN get ready to finish the marathon but don't even think about any specific time; let alone 3:30.  Concentrate on simply FINSHING.  I'm assuming, I could very well be wrong though, that you are some young relatively active guy who thinks you can just hop in some road race and run 50-minutes 10k without much training.  And, because of that, probably got trapped in a thought that, if-that-old-fart-can-run-sub-4-marathon-there's-no-reason-why-I-can't idea.  26-miler ain't that kind.

If you're running at 8-minute pace but it takes somewhere around 10 to do the long run (though I have NO idea what your normal workout duration is or what your LONG RUN is), chances are; you probably painfully lack stamina.  You may be able to run near-8 pace 10k without much training, and even though you HAVE run 1:40 half God knows how long ago, you are as good as your last performance.  I have run 2:44 marathon 25 pounds ago (how many years ago???) but I won't even get near that to predict my performance now.

Also, I know some other people would probably argue but my take is that most Americans train way too hard.  If you bearly get near 8-minute pace, I wouldn't even try to go beyond 20-miles.  3-hour MAX.

The time, or pace, should come naturally.  Any prediction should come from what you're doing right now and how it's going.  Coming up with the number like; "Oh, I want to be doing 7:30 pace..." out of blue is one of the worst things to do.  I'd be curious to hear where you get the idea of 3:30 being realistic when you just ran 54-minute 10k a week ago; and where you get the idea of you'd like to be running 26 consecutive 7:30 miles when you bearly done 8 for 6 miles?

Again, I could be very wrong with this but I have a feeling you'd probably go ahead and do what you want anyways.  I'd be very curious to find out, if you did 26-miler 4 weeks before your marathon, see how all that would pan out for you.  At this point, I wouldn't even recommend you trying to get up to 70MPW.  But, hey, that's me.  Let us know how you do your first marathon in April.

+1. Nobby may not be political correct but his advice is solid.

Run until the trail runs out.

SCHEDULE 2016--Great Southern Endurance Run 100K (Birthday #61)

The pain that hurts the worse is the imagined pain. One of the most difficult arts of racing is learning to ignore the imagined pain and just live with the present pain (which is always bearable.) - Jeff

# unsolicited chatter

http://bkclay.blogspot.com/

Thanks guys for all the advice.  I guess I am too late with the training I am doing, I should have been doing the trainng I am doing now  back in October.  But will continue to train for right up until the marathon and just get as finish and get as fast a time as I can, perhaps aim for another marathon in June or July time, then maybe 3.30 would be possible.  Its the Paris Marathon, april 11th.

The 10K  was run in 2005, with joining a running club, so they got me running hills.  Weighing 13st 7 approx at the time.  Current weight 14st.  Height 5 Foot 7.5.   With the weight off I could do it

Have been trying to reduce weight also, had a mad idea that if I got my weight below 13st - then it would be possible.  Been off alcohol, and trying to keep calories below 2000 weekdays, and around 2500 at the weekends.  But its a long hard slog, scales are not moving - however I am shaping up and looking slimmer and running is easier.

Its the Paris Marathon, april 11th.

Incidentally - it's the 10th, not the 11th. Don't turn up a day late

(Fifth year in row at this race for me.)