Realistic First Marathon Target time (Read 3780 times)

 Sorry - last 10k or 6.2 miles

I was going to write 10k, then I really do not think the last 6.2 is really, exactly a 10k, so I meant to write 6.2 MILES

Leave it to Dopple Bock to run a 30 mile marathon

Sorry, buddy, but I don't even know where to begin...  I think Julie was very nice and she was politically correct--or simply really nice.  If you HAVE run 10k in 43 minutes and you have just run 54 minutes and you had started training since start of January; chances are, you are pretty out of shape right now.  It'll probably take somewhere around 3~4 week just to get back in that level.  And THEN your marathon training program should start.  I don't know when your marathon is other than "April" but you'll be lucky to have 5 or 6 weeks.  And, at that level, at least 3 of that should be used for taper.  That means you practically need 3 weeks to train for a marathon.  My best advice is; don't.

 

Good news is; if you really want to do it (I'm sure you have already paid for it and you wouldn't want to waste it); you CAN get ready to finish the marathon but don't even think about any specific time; let alone 3:30.  Concentrate on simply FINSHING.  I'm assuming, I could very well be wrong though, that you are some young relatively active guy who thinks you can just hop in some road race and run 50-minutes 10k without much training.  And, because of that, probably got trapped in a thought that, if-that-old-fart-can-run-sub-4-marathon-there's-no-reason-why-I-can't idea.  26-miler ain't that kind.

 

If you're running at 8-minute pace but it takes somewhere around 10 to do the long run (though I have NO idea what your normal workout duration is or what your LONG RUN is), chances are; you probably painfully lack stamina.  You may be able to run near-8 pace 10k without much training, and even though you HAVE run 1:40 half God knows how long ago, you are as good as your last performance.  I have run 2:44 marathon 25 pounds ago (how many years ago???) but I won't even get near that to predict my performance now. 

 

Also, I know some other people would probably argue but my take is that most Americans train way too hard.  If you bearly get near 8-minute pace, I wouldn't even try to go beyond 20-miles.  3-hour MAX. 

 

The time, or pace, should come naturally.  Any prediction should come from what you're doing right now and how it's going.  Coming up with the number like; "Oh, I want to be doing 7:30 pace..." out of blue is one of the worst things to do.  I'd be curious to hear where you get the idea of 3:30 being realistic when you just ran 54-minute 10k a week ago; and where you get the idea of you'd like to be running 26 consecutive 7:30 miles when you bearly done 8 for 6 miles? 

 

Again, I could be very wrong with this but I have a feeling you'd probably go ahead and do what you want anyways.  I'd be very curious to find out, if you did 26-miler 4 weeks before your marathon, see how all that would pan out for you.  At this point, I wouldn't even recommend you trying to get up to 70MPW.  But, hey, that's me.  Let us know how you do your first marathon in April. 

 heh..too bad nobody wants to listen or hear this. They think going faster on all their runs is the answer.

 Current weight 14st.  Height 5 Foot 7.5.    

 

Consider me impressed that at your height and weight you are able to put in the weekly mileage you do, and ran the 10K at the pace you did.

That written, everything else everyone else said is on point - 4 hours is wildly unrealistic. Finish comfortably hard and have fun.

But I do agree there a a lot of people who limit their potential and invite injuries by running too many of their training miles faster than they should.

It's actually complicated to figure out a percentage of easy miles. I have a vague plan for what I'll run each week. But if I'm feeling like I'm overdoing it I'll skip the easy runs (or substitute bike rides) rather than the harder ones. Of course this means that I do less running in total, but the average speed/difficulty of the week's running goes up. But it's still less taxing than doing everything I planned to begin with.

I was in a very similar position to you in 2009 as I ramped towards my first marathon with an equally high BMI. Unlike you, 54 minutes for a 10K was darn near an easy effort run, not a race. In my log I see I ran a medium effort 10K training run nearly three months out from my marathon in 49 minutes while weighing 213 lbs (over 15 stones) at 5'10" with weak mileage base. (Take that Mr. Bubbles!) Despite this and having dropped more weight, I barely broke 4 hours on the marathon. I didn't decide my target time until after my last long run. I figured my target by subtracting 30 seconds per mile from my best 19 mile run effort.

There is no way I could have run that marathon faster. Attempting 3:30 would have been a recipe for complete and total disaster. It took another nine months of very consistant running before I was in a position to entertain the thought of 3:30 and I've had a much faster improvement trajectory than most around here. Here's my advice having been in your position. Look at running as a long term project and place your goals in the appropriate positions along the timeline of that project. Take it one step at a time. You'll have a good Paris Marathon if you can run it evenly and finish in the low 4 hour range. 3:30 might be a more appropriate goal this fall if you stay consistent, uninjured, loose weight, and continue show steady improvement.

That and show us your log.

First marathons for most of us mortals should be for the learning experience.   Throw away all expectations for a time goal and just run it at a comfortable long run pace.  On your second marathon you will have at least the beginnings of marathon running experience and a WHOLE LOT more respect for the race/distance.

Consider me impressed that at your height and weight you are able to put in the weekly mileage you do, and ran the 10K at the pace you did.

 

 

What, an average height 200 pounder can't run over 40 miles a week with a sub 55 minute 10k?

Bubbles, I do have to agree with you, a 3:30 from the OP is not possible and a 4:00 is still probably out of reach. Various calculators out there shouw a 3:38 - 3:40 for me, but there is no way I'd go into an April marathon thinking I can run that when I haven't run over 14 miles for a single run in the last 5 months.