Lets be realistic (Read 2312 times)

    Just finished my second marathon in 4:27:16 and am already thinking about my next one this fall (I'm thinking Philly in late November).

     

    Realistically, how much can I expect to take off my time if I incorporate tempo and track work and am willing to run up to 60-65 mpw?

    Have you qualified for Boston? I want to interview you!

    Message me!

     

    www.miloandthecalf.com

     

      My running in May not withstanding, I run about the same weekly mileage as you, albeit a bit slower paces , and I have high hopes of running a sub 4 this December.   Can't see why you can't do the same.

        My guess is sub-4 is not far out of your reach if you just keep doing what you're doing mileage wise and add some tempos and a mid-week long run. Ramping up the mileage will only help.

         

        I realize everyone is different, but this old, fat guy went from a 4:41 first marathon to a sub-4 second marathon in 4 months doing exactly what I suggested above. I had some peak weeks in the low 50's but I think I averaged in the high 30's.

        When it’s all said and done, will you have said more than you’ve done?

          Just finished my second marathon in 4:27:16 and am already thinking about my next one this fall (I'm thinking Philly in late November).

           

          Realistically, how much can I expect to take off my time if I incorporate tempo and track work and am willing to run up to 60-65 mpw?

           

          Hey Sean, 'up to' 60 mpw is not very helpful. 

           

          I don't advise flying up to 60-65 mpw and adding track workouts (if you will even be able to without injuring yourself).

           

          Check out the sub-4:00 thread; there's a good conversation and group there. 

          There are no magic beans, brother. 

          "If you have the fire, run..." -John Climacus


          A Saucy Wench

            A fair bit.

             

            But really to make an estimate is impossible.  Train for the pace you are now.  Run some shorter races (10K-HM) periodically along the way and adjust your paces accordingly.  

             

            Some people adapt faster to changes in training programs than others.  Looking at your log you are talking about making 2 big changes.  Speedwork AND  basically doubling your distance.  Maybe your body can do both at the same time, maybe you have to be cautious on one of them.   Maybe this will both happen in one marathon cycle, maybe it will take 2.

             

            Not trying to be a downer in anyway, I love the enthusiasm.  But those are a lot of changes to try and predict a goal NOW.

            I have become Death, the destroyer of electronic gadgets

             

            "When I got too tired to run anymore I just pretended I wasnt tired and kept running anyway" - dd, age 7

               

              Hey Sean, 'up to' 60 mpw is not very helpful. 

               

              I don't advise flying up to 60-65 mpw and adding track workouts (if you will even be able to without injuring yourself).

               

              Check out the sub-4:00 thread; there's a good conversation and group there. 

              There are no magic beans, brother. 

               

               

              Nader, this sounds like "no you won't break four hours, you'll just get your slow ass hurt". Is that what I'm hearing here?

              Have you qualified for Boston? I want to interview you!

              Message me!

               

              www.miloandthecalf.com

               

                A fair bit.

                 

                But really to make an estimate is impossible.  Train for the pace you are now.  Run some shorter races (10K-HM) periodically along the way and adjust your paces accordingly.  

                 

                Some people adapt faster to changes in training programs than others.  Looking at your log you are talking about making 2 big changes.  Speedwork AND  basically doubling your distance.  Maybe your body can do both at the same time, maybe you have to be cautious on one of them.   Maybe this will both happen in one marathon cycle, maybe it will take 2.

                 

                Not trying to be a downer in anyway, I love the enthusiasm.  But those are a lot of changes to try and predict a goal NOW.

                 

                 

                Ennay, you predicted my next question of what I should be running my easy runs at. I get that the process of getting faster takes time, but man, I wish that time went by a little faster.

                Have you qualified for Boston? I want to interview you!

                Message me!

                 

                www.miloandthecalf.com

                 

                   

                   

                  Nader, this sounds like "no you won't break four hours, you'll just get your slow ass hurt". Is that what I'm hearing here?

                  It may be what you heard, but it was not what I meant to convey.  You may break four hours.  I'm only cautioning that jumping to a consistent 60mpw and track workouts may lead to injury. 

                  "If you have the fire, run..." -John Climacus

                    Sean,  others on here are more experienced running, especially marathons as I have not run one yet, but regarding paces to run, I can say something. Trying to slow myself down artificially leads to all sorts of aches and pains for me. I think everyone has a natural stride/pace that they are most comfortable at, and this improves slowly over time. Race times improve a bit faster.  My 5K time pace went from 10 min/miles to under 8 min/mile, but my training paces only went down about a min during this time.


                    I'd say any run that you does not leave you too tired/beatup to run the next day is fine.  You'll find this effort over time, no one but you can say what the pace needs to be on a particular day.  Sometimes my 9:20 pace 10miler seems easier than my 10:00 pace 4 miler.  Whatever pace allows you to consistently run (without injuries) gives the most bang for your mile.


                    Feeling the growl again

                      Don't focus on the far off future, best case scenario.  You are bound to be disappointed in the short-term.  The common theme I see with runners who make huge strides in improvement is that they revel in the short-term goals and going through the process.

                      "If you want to be a bad a$s, then do what a bad a$s does.  There's your pep talk for today.  Go Run." -- Slo_Hand

                       

                        Like Ennay said, be very careful about incorporating two drastic changes into one training cycle and train at your current ability level.    I did this (increased mileage and added intense hill repeats) and messed up my IT band.  And it is also important to understand your personality when you set goals for yourself.  If you are one of those uber competitive types (I am one of them) then you might want too much too soon.  Then you add all these workouts that all these great marathon runners on this site are doing without taking into account your current conditioning level. 

                        I wanted to race a marathon this year and people were telling me to take it easy, to just make it a goal to finish.  I know in my heart that I can't do that.  I wanted to let it rip.  That's all fine and good for shorter races, but not a marathon.  So I decided to hold off a year and get another few thousand miles under my belt.  You will get better and faster with time.  I'm sure there are lots of sub-4 marathon threads on RA.  Be sure to check them out!  

                        Goals for 2013: sub 18 5K; stay healthy

                          I am trying to get my mileage up to ~50mpw after several months hovering around 40. I noticed my times have increased, and my easy pace has gotten a lot slower. I'm not surprised nor do I really care because there is no way I could do 50mpw at the pace I was doing 30mpw. I figure it will take a while but I'd rather run lottsa miles than few fast. Just my .02. Smile Don't get hurt!

                            Honestly, with a fall marathon, I think you'd see bigger gains by a) keeping yourself consistent at 40ish MPW -- that alone would be a pretty big change for you -- and b) adding some interval and tempo work, including some shorter distance races.  Higdon Intermediate 2 doesn't go much above 40, I don't think, but does include interval and tempo work.  If you don't want to do both an interval and a tempo every week, you could do a midweek midlong at marathon pace.   

                             

                            Although, I guess I'm thinking "fall" as being more like September/October, and your'e saying late November, which certainly gives you more time to build mileage.  But, yes, building mileage and adding speedwork at the same time . . . could be problems.  You could do fine with it, of course, but it's a road to injuries for many.

                             

                            Number one thing I'd add, though?  More races. 

                              Realistically, how much can I expect to take off my time if I incorporate tempo and track work and am willing to run up to 60-65 mpw?

                               

                              There's only one way to find out.

                              Runners run.

                                Realistically, how much can I expect to take off my time if I incorporate tempo and track work and am willing to run up to 60-65 mpw?

                                  I dont think anyone can quantify it for you.......but I think you are pretty much guaranteed that if you increase your mileage from your current level to roughly 60-65 MPW, then you are going to get stronger and faster.....  There's no guarantee that you can cut your marathon time by 60 mins or 20 mins or even 10 mins.......but you CAN BE GUARANTEED that  if you increase your running over an extended period of time, without injury you'll eventually get stronger and that will mean better times...

                                Champions are made when no one is watching