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Forums  > Racing  > How much can I improve? (aka. is qualifying for the Boston Marathon in 2008 a reality, or a pipedream?)


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How much can I improve? (aka. is qualifying for the Boston Marathon in 2008 a reality, or a pipedream?) (Read 403 times)
sparky1
Soon to be Dad (Apr. 30)
 posted: 3/12/2008 at 6:10 PM
Hi Everyone,

I've used runningahead since the New Year but, being a bored and unmotivated civil servant at work, starting poking around and found these wonderful forums! Smile

I know what I'm looking for is pretty subjective, but I would like the honest opinions of some more seasoned runners here, as to my chances of being able to qualify for the Boston marathon sometime this year.

I need to run a 3:10 in order to qualify... this works out to 7:10min/mi pace I believe. I am thinking of doing the Portland Marathon in Oct. 2008.

About me:
23 year old male. 5'9, 160lbs, running for almost 4 years now. 2 years of this spent doing actualy "real" training... not just jogging.
Marathon PR (only marathon... but still technically a PR!) Victoria Marathon, Oct. 2007: 3:26:30 (7:53min/mi) pace.
1/2 Marathon PR, Calgary 1/2 Marathon, July 2007: 1:36:30 (7:22min/mi)

If I was to race tommorrow, I would estimate that I could run a 10km run in or around 43 minutes (6:55min/mi).

With a good 7 months till the Portland marathon, could anyone tell me if I have a realistic shot at getting my speed/endurance up fast enough in order to qualify for Boston?

If the answer is no, please tell me... I am young and resilient and can take the bashing of my ego! Smile
Goals for 2009:
Find the perfect jogging stroller
Sub-3hr Marathon
Contemplate an ultra
jEfFgObLuE
Frustrating Project
 posted: 3/12/2008 at 6:13 PM
Make your log visible so we can have a numerical basis to bash you. Tongue
20th Century: 800m: 2:04 |1600m: 4:37 |3200m: 10:06 |5k: 16:23 |10k: 35:38 |15k: 54:20
25k: 1:35:59

21st Century: 5k: 19:42 |10k: 43:00

"Do not allow children to mix drinks. It is unseemly, and they use too much vermouth."
Steve Allen

Oswald acted alone.
Scout7
CPT Curmudgeon
 posted: 3/12/2008 at 6:14 PM
It's possible, sure. I went from a 3:28 to a 3:11 in a year.

Oh, and you need 7:14 pace to meet 3:10. Trust me, I know.
Amat victoria curam.

Sine labore nihil.

Dulcius ex asperis.
mikeymike
posted: 3/12/2008 at 6:14 PM
modified: 3/12/2008 at 6:16 PM
It's probably doable.

For reference, the first time I qualified I was starting from worse shape than you are and I had about the same amount of time.

mta: How much you willing/able to train?
Run To Win
Blaine Moore
 posted: 3/12/2008 at 6:21 PM
You could probably do it. The big effort you will have is getting the training in without getting injured.

I'd recommend training to bring your 5k/10k time down a little this Summer without sacrificing your mileage per week, and then converting that training over to marathon training mid-summer to gear up for the marathon.
Run to Win
I just started using Twitter - anybody else on there? http://twitter.com/RunToWin
sparky1
Soon to be Dad (Apr. 30)
 posted: 3/12/2008 at 6:32 PM
Wow... I'm impressed with the speed of responses!
7:14 pace... that's a bit more comforting. Thank you for the reclarification!

I am able and willing to train hard. I've built myself up to a base of around 40mi/week now, and was going to kick off 50+mi weeks but I seem to have gotten sick after my Sat. long run, so that ain't happening this week.

Scout7 - because you're superficially around my stats (or was) - could you, or anyone else, provide me perhaps with some midterm minimum goals for shorter races in the meantime? By the end of the summer, what would I need to run a 5km, 10km, and 1/2 marathon in, to reflect the proper conditioning and speed needed?

Thanks again for the help everyone!
Goals for 2009:
Find the perfect jogging stroller
Sub-3hr Marathon
Contemplate an ultra
jeffdonahue
posted: 3/12/2008 at 6:38 PM
Quote from Scout7 on 3/12/2008 at 6:14 PM:
It's possible, sure. I went from a 3:28 to a 3:11 in a year.

Oh, and you need 7:14 pace to meet 3:10. Trust me, I know.


Yes, but since you can actually qualify with a 3:10:59 time, you really only need a 7:17 pace.
"80% of success is showing up." ~ Woody Allen

"Go that way... really fast. If something gets in your way... turn." ~ Charles DeMar

God doesn't give you what you want. He gives you what you need, the rest is up to you.
Scout7
CPT Curmudgeon
 posted: 3/12/2008 at 6:40 PM
Hmmm....good question. I didn't really have any target times in other races leading up to it, to be perfectly honest. I know I ran a 19:50-ish 5k about 6 weeks before. But I did that more for fun than anything else.
Amat victoria curam.

Sine labore nihil.

Dulcius ex asperis.
mikeymike
posted: 3/12/2008 at 6:42 PM
modified: 3/12/2008 at 6:43 PM
Everybody is slightly different on what 5k/10k/HM time will predict a 3:10 marathon, so don't worry too much about that. You can plug your times into McMillan or one of the calculators if you want but it won't mean a whole lot.

Your basic limiting factor--at all of those distances but especially the marathon--is aerobic base. If you just get your mileage to 200+ per month for as many months in a row as possible, you'll likely break 3:10 and set big PR's at all distances in the process. You don't really need to sweat the details too much.
Run To Win
Blaine Moore
 posted: 3/12/2008 at 6:48 PM
Quote from sparky1 on 3/12/2008 at 6:32 PM:
provide me perhaps with some midterm minimum goals for shorter races in the meantime? By the end of the summer, what would I need to run a 5km, 10km, and 1/2 marathon in, to reflect the proper conditioning and speed needed?

Thanks again for the help everyone!


According to the McMillan Running Calculator:
5k: 19:35
10k: 40:42
1/2: 90:33

According to the Running Ahead Race Time Predictor (default values):
5k: 19:56
10k: 41:33
1/2: 91:37

I'd aim for 19:00, 40:00 and 90:00, just because they are nice round numbers and give you a good training goal. Assuming that you race all three of course, if that fits in your schedule.
Run to Win
I just started using Twitter - anybody else on there? http://twitter.com/RunToWin
Gopher Ryan
posted: 3/12/2008 at 6:51 PM
Last summer I was hurt in early June with a torn tendon in the front of my leg. My marathon PR was 3:40 at Twin Cities in 2006. I started training again from nowhere in early July and in October 07, I ran a 3:10 at St George Marathon. Honestly, I did it in 3 months of hard training. You can do it in 7 months of (injury free) training.
You could say StG is a fast course, and it is. I ran many many hard miles on downhill slopes to train for it.
TanyaS
posted: 3/12/2008 at 6:54 PM
Like everyone else has said, I think you could definitely knock off that time. I chopped 21 minutes off my marathon time within a year by running more miles and losing some weight. That being said, if you are willing and able to lose about 15 pounds, your time would come down a few notches just from weight loss alone.
32,000 Miles Later
Jeff
posted: 3/12/2008 at 6:55 PM
Quote from mikeymike on 3/12/2008 at 6:42 PM:
Your basic limiting factor--at all of those distances but especially the marathon--is aerobic base. If you just get your mileage to 200+ per month for as many months in a row as possible, you'll likely break 3:10 and set big PR's at all distances in the process. You don't really need to sweat the details too much.


Yep. If you can average 50 mpw between now and then and run a couple of big weeks (70-80+) in the months prior to you race, I'm almost positive that you will do it. Blaine's advice about racing some shorter stuff over the summer is smart, too.

1. Run every day. Sometimes twice.
2. Run medium-long (~8-12) miles at MP or 4-6 x mile @ HM pace once a week.
3. Don't be afraid to slow down on your easy days a couple of times a week.
4. If you feel good on an easy day, don't be afraid to turn it into a progression/tempo a couple times a week.
5. Do some strides.
6. Be pro-active with the little injuries that surface.
7. Race a 5k or a 10k every now and then.
a vagabond,..highway-beater; a rolling stone, one that does nought but runne here and there.
~Cotgrave, Randle A dictionarie of the French and English tongues, 1611
slosh252
posted: 3/12/2008 at 7:32 PM
Quote from Jeff on 3/12/2008 at 6:55 PM:


1. Run every day. Sometimes twice.
2. Run medium-long (~8-12) miles at MP or 4-6 x mile @ HM pace once a week.
3. Don't be afraid to slow down on your easy days a couple of times a week.
4. If you feel good on an easy day, don't be afraid to turn it into a progression/tempo a couple times a week.
5. Do some strides.
6. Be pro-active with the little injuries that surface.
7. Race a 5k or a 10k every now and then.


This strikes me as the best itemized list summing up a training plan that I have seen in recent memory.
milkbaby
posted: 3/12/2008 at 11:37 PM
Based on advanced mathematical modelling, I predict you have a 50/50 chance at the Portland marathon of 1. you will BQ OR 2. you won't BQ. Ta-da, problem solved! Big grin

But seriously... Train for it and let it all hang out on race day. It's not like a lightning bolt is going to strike you down if you look at the clock at the end of the race and didn't BQ. Why did you bother to get out of bed today because you're going to die someday anyhow, right? Go for it and good luck!
"You must be the change you wish to see in the world."
-- Mahatma Gandhi
"I have need to be all on fire, for I have mountains of ice about me to melt."
-- William Lloyd Garrison
"The marathon is an art; the marathoner is an artist."
-- Kiyoshi Nakamura
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Forums  > Racing  > How much can I improve? (aka. is qualifying for the Boston Marathon in 2008 a reality, or a pipedream?)

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