My prediction?

I predict pain.

My prediction?

 

I predict pain.

Is this actually a 5K?

Silly - It's only July ... everything is possible this many months from the race.

I was 1 minute away from breaking 3 my 1st year - I will be more fit this year.

MikeyMike will run a patient smart race and get under 3

A1 will have run for a whole year straight, instead of hiking for 2+ months in the mountains

PS - Blowing up is not the same as running > 3 ... 2 years ago, I simply had legs of Jello from the start and ran 3:17 (I think), but I was on 3:15-3:18 pace the whole way.  Blowing up is running 1:26-1:28 1st half and finishing in 3:14.

So maybe < 4 of us break 3 - But I do not see more than 1 or 2 blowing up. 

Only one time did the race have more than 3 sub-3 finishers; and the sub-3s tend to be spring-chickeny compared to me and a few other infirmed fellows on this list. I believe the prediction was written with dyslexia and that 5 of the 6 will blow up. Furthermore, I am willing to lead those 5, and die trying.

Yeah, I think you need to define "blowing up."  Is the definition "blowing up" to not break 3 hours?  If so, yeah probably more than 1 of that group will do that.

But that's not what I normally think of as blowing up.

The last time I blew up in a marathon was the 2001 Boston Marathon (sub 3 pace through 15 miles, finished in 3:11.)  I'm not counting 2004 Boston since that was a thermogenic meltdown more than a blow up.  I've done a lot of racing and run a lot of marathons since then.

I won't predict I'll break 3 at this point since IF I make it there, I will basically be racing a hilly marathon off of 5k training (don't try this at home kids) but I will know going in whether sub 3 is realistic.

The one time I ran Monkey, I was in 2:49 marathon shape (documented) at the time.  I think I could have squeaked under 3 hours with a smart race if that had been my goal, but I was not racing it.  Therefore, in order to feel like I have a shot at sub 3, I will need to feel like I'm in sub-2:50 marathon shape, which would mean 17 minute 5k (or hopefully a tick or two under) and 1:20 half marathon shape.

I have a lot of miles to run before then.

Only one time did the race have more than 3 sub-3 finishers; and the sub-3s tend to be spring-chickeny compared to me and a few other infirmed fellows on this list. I believe the prediction was written with dyslexia and that 5 of the 6 will blow up. Furthermore, I am willing to lead those 5, and die trying.

I agree with the more recent updates. That missing the 3hr mark is not nessicarily a blow-up. I think it's more likely that lee of us will go sub-3, but I do think we'll all tease the time.

I'll volunteer to be the Lucas in this year's Monkey. But be warned, one day Lucas will make that move and it will stick. Imagine how she'd feel if that was the day she chose to run smart/conservative.

I do not play well with others on this type of course.  Because of my weight and lack of hill strength - I cannot keep up with people on the uphills.  My fat ass pushes me faster than other people on the downhills.

I did do 4 miles @ 15% incline Sunday to start working on my hill training. 

I agree with the more recent updates. That missing the 3hr mark is not nessicarily a blow-up. I think it's more likely that lee of us will go sub-3, but I do think we'll all tease the time.

 

I'll volunteer to be the Lucas in this year's Monkey. But be warned, one day Lucas will make that move and it will stick. Imagine how she'd feel if that was the day she chose to run smart/conservative.

I do not play well with others on this type of course.  Because of my weight and lack of hill strength - I cannot keep up with people on the uphills.  My fat ass pushes me faster than other people on the downhills.

 

I did do 4 miles @ 15% incline Sunday to start working on my hill training. 

I think this violates the spirit of the competition for Monkey: Thou shalt not train!!!

Last year at Tecumsah, I was running near the Wabash College CC team and every uphill they'd leave me in the dust, only to have me yelling to move out of my way as a barrelled downhill. Not being svelt has it's advantages when the kenetic energy gets to the top.