Jay - pretty accurate (cannot tell about the marathon - will find out on April 26th)
Yes I fear the pain, especially in a 5k. Not a lot of room for error and painful for a long time. Have one coming up in 2 days. Timely thread
OOTB, I took over 6 minutes off my time from the previous year when I went sub 2 in my first HM of 2013. It's definitely doable as it seems like you've put in the work. My experience was that it wasn't painful until around mile 11 so at least I didn't have to deal with pain for a long time. Having said that, it's the first race I've done where I went in with an attitude of "I am going to accomplish my goal or die tryIng" so when the pain came, I was able to acknowledge it and then put it away. Maybe I need to adopt that attitude for all of my races.