Using MAF tests as Race Pace Indicator or Predictor

jimmyb

posted: 2/20/2008 at 8:54 AM
modified: 7/18/2012 at 9:24 PM

This thread is to discuss predicting race pace based on different indicators, most importantly to this forum, MAF tests, and other ideas.... USING MAF TEST AS A MARATHON RACE PACE PREDICTOR. On page 53 of Training for Endurance 2nd Revised Edition by Phil Maffetone ©2000. Maffetone gives a chart based on his" hundreds of tests and several racing seasons." I popped the 5k times on Maffetone's chart into the McMillan calculator and added the equivalent marathon times. I took the rate of slowing at MAF of 8:00-10:00 MAF pace on Maffetone's chart and figured up to 13:00. This could be way off, as if you notice on his chart there is a jump between 7-8:00 that increases twice the rate of slowing on most of the chart. I'm hoping your data can help out with all this. What I figured is separated from and above Maffetone's chart: This may not be accurate, be careful, it may not be wise to use it to determine your pace for a marathon or 5k race. Think of it as a template that you can use to see how your own race times correlate with your MAF test fitness at the time: The MAF time listed is the FIRST MILE time from the MAF test. If the following test miles drop off significantly, then that might be an indicator that your aerobic fitness and endurance isn't good enough to achieve the marathon time. Be careful.

MAF....5k pace....5k time.....Marathon.....Mpace

13:00...9:00.........27:57..........4:32:29.......10:25

12:30...8:45.........27:11..........4:25:00.......10:07

12:00...8:30.........26:23..........4:17:12.........9:50

11:30...8:15.........25:37..........4:09:44.........9:32

11:00...8:00.........24:51..........4:02:15.........9:15

10:30..7:45..........24:04..........3:54:37.........8:58

10:00..7:30..........23:18..........3:47:09...........8:41

9:30....7:15..........22:31..........3:39:31...........8:23

9:00....7:00..........21:45..........3:32:02...........8:06

8:30....6:45..........20:58..........3:24:24...........7:49

8:00....6:30..........20:12..........3:16:55...........7:31

7:30....6:00..........18:38..........3:01:39...........6:56

7:00....5:30..........17:05..........2:46:32...........6:22

6:30....5:15..........16:19..........2:39:04...........6:05

6:00....5:00..........15:32..........2:31:26...........5:47

5:45....4:45..........14:45..........2:23:48...........5:30

5:30....4:30..........13:59..........2:16:19...........5:12

5:15....4:20..........13:28..........2:11:17...........5:01

5:00....4:15..........13:12....... ..2:08:41...........4:55

MY TIMES AND MAF TESTS

Using MAF of 180-age +5 beats

Marathon.................time.........pace....MAF test near the marathon 1st mile

Sugarloaf2006......3:30:36.......8:02................9:04

Philly 2006............3:22:10.......7:43................8:15

Pretty close. I did these MAF tests on a treadmill in 65-70ºF with a 1% incline, and on tired legs. Perhaps, I could have done the tests faster in a cooler room, no incline, and rested. So, perhaps Maffetone and his chart can be used as an indicator. I'll have to get more data as I go. If anyone has any data to add to this thread, please share. It would be interesting to see how your data matches up with Maffetone's chart, and my addition to it. --Jimmy

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run48

posted: 2/20/2008 at 10:35 AM

Thanks for filling in those higher MAF times. I had just been thinking that it would be nice if someone filled those in. Apparently Maffetone did not have a large enough sample of runners that run in that range. But we certainly have them here. We all know that these are not perfect predictors, but it is great to just have some ball park idea of how to tranlate your MAF time to a target pace. So, even if these are not perfect, they really are helpful. I have noticed that in reading a lot about running on the web, it appears that some of us a more naturally better at either long distance or shorter distances and that the curve is different for all of us. For me, I am not sure if I would ever see a flat line from my 5k time to a longer distance like a marathon. But, with MAf, who knows what we are capable of. I have personally used the chart in a sort of backwards way. Last year I was able to run a 23:30 5k, so I figure that my target MAF time should be close to 10 min/mile. If I ever got there, I would consider myself to be much more aerobically fit.

GregL

Master of Inconsistency

posted: 2/20/2008 at 11:44 AM

I 've never run a marathon so I can't comment on how that pace matches up with maf pace, but as far as the 5k times represented in your chart my times are pretty far removed. Only just recently have I begun to break the 11:00 minute mile on my Maf runs and when I first started Maf training my runs were like 12+ yet my worst 5k time is 23:17 and that was a week after I ran myself into the emergency room with heat exhaustion. I started out with a 8 minute first mile to see how I felt and then went faster from there. My last race before Maf was a 5 miles at 7:02 pace. I hope the 5k and marathon times line up though since I'd like to run around 3:40 Big grin

Greg

Ain't Wastin' Time No More !

run48

posted: 2/20/2008 at 12:49 PM

I just thought of another reason maybe Maffetone did not go above 10 min MAFs. Maybe there is just more variability of results when you start getting to those levels, so he just did not include them. I look at the chart this way. If your MAF does line up well with your 5k time, then you are probably pretty aerobically fit, and thus you have a better chance of predicting your longer race times with this chart. In other words, there is more of a chance that there is a correct relationship between your shorter and longer races. But, if your MAF time is a lot higher than your 5K time, maybe this is a good indicator that you have room for more improvement aerobically. It seems to me that 5k is a race you can do pretty well in and still be in poor aerobic shape, because you can rely on your anearobic systems to get you through it. BUt, at the longer distances, your aerobic shortcomings are more likely to be more exposed.

GregL

Master of Inconsistency

posted: 2/20/2008 at 1:22 PM

Good point , this is true as my aerobic system is still a work in progress . You definitely notice this with HR drift on long runs. Hopefully in a couple of years my Maf pace will increase to the level on those charts.

Ain't Wastin' Time No More !

Docster

posted: 2/20/2008 at 2:11 PM

Also, keep in mind that many of us don't train specifically for a 5K race (or 10K), etc. versus a half marathon or full marathon, much less taper for one. I usually run 6 to 8 miles the day before a 5K race. If I did train for a 5K, I would be including much more speed work, hill repeats, etc. with less mileage. I'm fairly certain that I am better suited to a 5K or 10K "best time" versus a half or full marathon, however with my training being what it is (fairly high volume, not much speed work) I doubt that I will (for now) ever reach my potential in those races. Maybe down the road I'll spend a spring/summer focusing on those races. As for the chart and I...my MAF pace outside with a few hills was 8:15 the week before my marathon last Saturday. I finished in ~3:12:20, but would have ran 3:10 aside from an unexpected stop, where the chart for an 8:00 MAF test (which is probably about where I am on a TM, perhaps a bit slower) predicts 3:16. My anaerobic threshold is way above MAF, however, which is why I think I don't fit that mold as well as some others might. My AT is about 180, which is MAF +36. That leaves me a lot of extra beats to use up during a race before I hit my downward spiral of anaerobic death. Smile

On the flip side, though...someone with a lower max HR and/or lower AT might very well be running a fair bit faster than me at the same HR (assuming we had the same marathon times for example). Perhaps we could gather data and post our results and someone could put them into a spreadsheet and go crazzzzzeee with it. Clowning around

Obviously, some people won't fit the chart, or even come close. Most of us should fall into a rough proximity though.

jimmyb

posted: 2/20/2008 at 5:52 PM

Quote from Docster on 2/20/2008 at 2:11 PM:

I finished in ~3:12:20, but would have ran 3:10 aside from an unexpected stop, where the chart for an 8:00 MAF test (which is probably about where I am on a TM, perhaps a bit slower) predicts 3:16.

I also beat the chart. As I wrote, we don't know HOW those MAF tests were done, how long, and under what conditions. Plus his athletes were gas-tested and knew their exact MAF. If his athletes ran on flat and in cool weather, and there I am doing mine on an incline in 65º, and I'm going 5 miles when his athletes maybe did 3, and I'm using an MAF that's below my actual physiological MAF, then there will be a discrepancy. All speculation. Still, a fun chart to refer to as one gathers more and more data. Maybe a true MAF can be ascertained from the chart over time. Who knows. Keep posting, people. More datahol please. --Jimmy

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jimmyb

posted: 2/20/2008 at 6:00 PM

Also when a test is done can make a difference. An MAF test done two days after a 20-miler might come out slower than if you waited 5 days.

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willamona

Hawt and sexy

posted: 2/20/2008 at 10:25 PM
modified: 2/20/2008 at 10:26 PM

I beat that chart by about 15 minutes when training at 11 mm last spring. Hmmm. It's the girl cooties, isn't it? I have been racing marathons at 2:30 faster than my MAF. I am guessing the difference will decrease as I improve but at the slow speeds it seems to stay the same. My sample size it 2 trues races. Steamtown did not pan out last year, too hot. And my last marathon I paced a friend and had a blast so that does not count. Looking at my HRM at mile 23 and seeing that I was still at MAF was kinda fun though. Boy, she cussed me out a little when I mentioned that... MTA-My 5k times are very close to thr chart though.

I'm touching your pants.

jimmyb

posted: 2/20/2008 at 10:57 PM

Quote from willamona on 2/20/2008 at 10:25 PM:

I beat that chart by about 15 minutes when training at 11 mm last spring. Hmmm. It's the girl cooties, isn't it? I have been racing marathons at 2:30 faster than my MAF. I am guessing the difference will decrease as I improve but at the slow speeds it seems to stay the same. My sample size it 2 trues races. Steamtown did not pan out last year, too hot. And my last marathon I paced a friend and had a blast so that does not count. Looking at my HRM at mile 23 and seeing that I was still at MAF was kinda fun though. Boy, she cussed me out a little when I mentioned that... MTA-My 5k times are very close to thr chart though.

Hey Willa, Did you do MAF tests? If so, what was your best in the weeks around the marathon? Under what conditions? Marathon time? Were you happy with your job? Was life "flowing?" --Jimmy

running log / profile / Crusted Salt comic strip / blog / running of the bulls

CfKid

posted: 2/21/2008 at 3:36 PM

Quote from jimmyb on 2/20/2008 at 8:54 AM:

This may not be accurate, be careful, it may not be wise to use it to determine your pace for a marathon: MAF....5k pace....5k time.....Marathon.....Mpace 13:00...9:00.........27:57..........4:32:29.......10:25 12:30...8:45.........27:11..........4:25:00.......10:07 12:00...8:30.........26:23..........4:17:12.........9:50 11:30...8:15.........25:37..........4:09:44.........9:32 11:00...8:00.........24:51..........4:02:15.........9:15 10:30..7:45..........24:04..........3:54:37.........8:58 10:00..7:30..........23:18..........3:47:09...........8:41 9:30....7:15..........22:31..........3:39:31...........8:23 9:00....7:00..........21:45..........3:32:02...........8:06 8:30....6:45..........20:58..........3:24:24...........7:49 8:00....6:30..........20:12..........3:16:55...........7:31 7:30....6:00..........18:38..........3:01:39...........6:56 7:00....5:30..........17:05..........2:46:32...........6:22 6:30....5:15..........16:19..........2:39:04...........6:05 6:00....5:00..........15:32..........2:31:26...........5:47 5:45....4:45..........14:45..........2:23:48...........5:30 5:30....4:30..........13:59..........2:16:19...........5:12 5:15....4:20..........13:28..........2:11:17...........5:01 5:00....4:15..........13:12....... ..2:08:41...........4:55 --Jimmy

Ok Jimmy, so if this is correct, and I did read the disclaimer, I could potentially run a 4:09:44, since I'm running between an 11:00 and 11:30 pace at MAF. Where do I sign on the dotted line to get that for a debut marathon? Now, that's today. Since I have 10+ weeks to go, it may be better. My luck, it will be 70 F and 90% humidity on Pig day. Oh well, nothing I can do about that. Just "run my race." Anyway, I'd take that time if I can get it.

CfKid
Running with Cystic Fibrosis

jimmyb

posted: 2/21/2008 at 5:01 PM

Quote from CfKid on 2/21/2008 at 3:36 PM:

Ok Jimmy, so if this is correct, and I did read the disclaimer, I could potentially run a 4:09:44, since I'm running between an 11:00 and 11:30 pace at MAF. Where do I sign on the dotted line to get that for a debut marathon? Now, that's today. Since I have 10+ weeks to go, it may be better. My luck, it will be 70 F and 90% humidity on Pig day. Oh well, nothing I can do about that. Just "run my race." Anyway, I'd take that time if I can get it.

The same goes with this chart as with using LT or races popped into the McMillan Calculator. You might be able to do the 5k, but the equivalent marathon given by the calculator is dependent on level of aerobic fitness, temp, course difficulty, wind, mental endurance, how rested you are, how close you eat to the race, whether or not Mercury is in retrograde, high tide or low tide, how deeply you love yourself, and whether or not you can cha-cha with abandonment. 10+weeks with some long runs is a nice chunk to have left. --Jimmy

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Ace8

posted: 2/21/2008 at 5:02 PM

Quote from CfKid on 2/21/2008 at 3:36 PM:

Ok Jimmy, so if this is correct, and I did read the disclaimer, I could potentially run a 4:09:44, since I'm running between an 11:00 and 11:30 pace at MAF. Where do I sign on the dotted line to get that for a debut marathon? Now, that's today. Since I have 10+ weeks to go, it may be better. My luck, it will be 70 F and 90% humidity on Pig day. Oh well, nothing I can do about that. Just "run my race." Anyway, I'd take that time if I can get it.

That's the good thing about the first one- it's going to be a PR no matter what. I think you will hold a better pace than you think. Are you keeping your long runs at MAF for now, or are you starting Pfitzinger's 10-20% slower than goal pace long runs as we are ~10 weeks out. Maybe I will do a MAF test tonight as part of my 11 "general aerobic" miles on the treadmill.

CfKid

posted: 2/21/2008 at 6:05 PM

Quote from Ace8 on 2/21/2008 at 5:02 PM:

That's the good thing about the first one- it's going to be a PR no matter what. I think you will hold a better pace than you think. Are you keeping your long runs at MAF for now, or are you starting Pfitzinger's 10-20% slower than goal pace long runs as we are ~10 weeks out. Maybe I will do a MAF test tonight as part of my 11 "general aerobic" miles on the treadmill.

Nope, I'm keeping all my long runs at or under MAF at this point. I'll probably start sharpening the first full week of March. That way I can use the Heart Mini Marathon (15k) as a tune-up for the Pig. I figure four weeks of tempo runs, and a couple of Marathon Pace finish runs will go a long way to telling me what I'll be able to do. That 15k is on my birthday, so it WILL be a PR.

CfKid
Running with Cystic Fibrosis

lowgear1

Max McMaffelow Esq.

posted: 2/21/2008 at 7:46 PM

Quote from jimmyb on 2/20/2008 at 8:54 AM:

11:00...8:00.........24:51..........4:02:15.........9:15 10:30..7:45..........24:04..........3:54:37.........8:58 --Jimmy

I find it somewhat comforting that I can train in your maf pace chart 'above the line' and still portend a BQ time (sub 03:59:59)...I guess age has it's privilage. A rather silly fantasy at this point, but it would certainly look nice on the resume. I'm guessing that the Wellesley gals would be pretty much screamed out by the time the slowest of the slow twitchers come drifting through, if in fact they're even in sight much past the 3 hour group. Being that i've completed well over 12 weeks of sub maf base, would a transition to a small amount of anaerobic progressive type runs, similar to what you describe in your anaerobic thread, be practical for me? I don't necessarily have an eye on any races, but it sure has an appeal, and I figure I can always return to all maf. I must admit that I haven't done enough downhill running, so my maf pace has sort of hit a plateau. LG1 itchin n' twitchin

♪ ♫ Hey, hey, we're Maf Monkees And people say we monkey around. ♪ ♫ (The Monkees)
Give me 12:59 in '09, please. I deserve it! (Maf of course)..No more teens! No more teens! (ME! ME! ME!)
♪ ♫ I Thank The Lord For The Night Time...And I Thank The Lord For You ♪ ♫ (Neil Diamond)

Low HR Training

Using MAF tests as Race Pace Indicator or Predictor (Read 3065 times)