Relevant video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MTn1v5TGK_w

It is funny, sad, and touching at the same time.

I think there are two separate topics being debated in this thread:

1) A personal accountability for results. It is better to say "what could I have done better during the race and during my preparations". Taking more responsibility for the situation and taking charge of as many factors as possible will enhance learning and improve results.

2) Statistically, unusual conditions will cause more DNFs. I imagine runners being spread over a normal distribution of preparedness. Extreme conditions will change the cutoff for who makes is and doesn't make it in that distribution.

DNF's are for the most part mental.  I've discussed this with many of the top of the elite ultra endurance athlete's and almost every one of them told me the following,  it's 30% physical and 70% mental. I learned this on my first 1200K bike race from a guy who help me limp across the finish line.  100 ultra plus events later he was correct.   Most people who undertake ultra endurance events can't handle the mental side of the sport.

A 12-year old finished the 100 mile at JJ, and an 8-year old finished the 100K. I agree that many of the DNF's are mental. Several of the ones at JJ though were also people who started in costumes that were much too hot to be running in given the conditions. JJ likely also has a high DNF rate because if you finish at l;east 100K, you will get a 100K finish, and a 100K buckle. Makes it easier to drop there, but again this is mainly a mental issue.

At a 100 miler here in Oklahoma the weekend before JJ, the finish rate was 57%, and the finish rate for the 100K was just 72%. It was far from hot...in fact, it was unseasonably cold for the time of year. Starting temps were in the mid 30s, and it warmed into the upper 50s during the afternoon, but once the sun went down, it quickly dropped back into the upper 30s. My 2 sons, ages 13 and 12, ran the 100K and finished easily, but they were prepared for the weather change that was coming by sunset. They both say they could have finished the 100 mile, but I'm not sure they could have kept themselves awake that long, especially the older one. The younger one still had plenty left in the tank at the end of his 100K, and no signs of blisters.

Personally, I believe fixed time races are better for first 100 mile attempts. This is the approach we are using to get my sons to the distance, and they have already achieved it once in a fixed time race. It is possible that we will be at JJ next year for their first attempt at a 100 mile non-fixed time race.

A 12-year old finished the 100 mile at JJ, and an 8-year old finished the 100K. I agree that many of the DNF's are mental. Several of the ones at JJ though were also people who started in costumes that were much too hot to be running in given the conditions. JJ likely also has a high DNF rate because if you finish at l;east 100K, you will get a 100K finish, and a 100K buckle. Makes it easier to drop there, but again this is mainly a mental issue.

 

At a 100 miler here in Oklahoma the weekend before JJ, the finish rate was 57%, and the finish rate for the 100K was just 72%. It was far from hot...in fact, it was unseasonably cold for the time of year. Starting temps were in the mid 30s, and it warmed into the upper 50s during the afternoon, but once the sun went down, it quickly dropped back into the upper 30s. My 2 sons, ages 13 and 12, ran the 100K and finished easily, but they were prepared for the weather change that was coming by sunset. They both say they could have finished the 100 mile, but I'm not sure they could have kept themselves awake that long, especially the older one. The younger one still had plenty left in the tank at the end of his 100K, and no signs of blisters.

 

Personally, I believe fixed time races are better for first 100 mile attempts. This is the approach we are using to get my sons to the distance, and they have already achieved it once in a fixed time race. It is possible that we will be at JJ next year for their first attempt at a 100 mile non-fixed time race.

12 and 13 yr olds running 100k and 100 milers? 8 yr olds? Sounds like a totally different topic that may bring some interesting comments.  Interesting.

I gave this topic some thought today...

I get dumb when I run.  The longer I run the dumber I get.  I can tell because when I get to an aid station and the volunteers ask what I need I can't ever get the words out.  This happens at AS#1.  I could sit on my couch and think through everything I want to do during a race, but when it comes time to execute whatever happens happens because I'm not necessarily firing on all cylinders upstairs.

Also, I think it is tough to tease out whether a DNF is due to mental or physical reasons (except maybe in cases of legitimate injury) because they are tied together.  If you start breaking down physically, the mental stuff goes out the door with it.  If you make a mental mistake, you're going to pay for it physically.

I love how the Barkley lists a DNF as a Refuse to Continue - I wish more races did this, classified and publicized why people DNF'ed.  I'd like three classes - miss the cutoff, RTC, and Medical.

I'm a solid mid-pack runner.  Most of the races out here tend to try to not cut off the "average" runners - but there are a few that do.  I want to know who missed the cutoff!  If it's people that are my speed, I'll know going in that I cannot dally at any aid stations.  Useful info.

On the other hand, if it's a bunch of people that refused to continue....   I do well at those races.  I ran a 2 loop 50k last year where I think 1/3 of the people dropped to the lower distance before the race, 1/3 of the people dropped after 1 loop, and 1/3 of the runners finished.  (The course was really hard).  I finished.  It was hard but I had a great day!  That night in the tent was.... not so great....but I'd run it again.  A friend of mine that I run with would be totally put off by that kind of course.   So lots of RTCs would frighten her off, but would attract me.