Occasional Runner
I struggle with this issue after every big race, but it's really coming to a point where it's getting impossible to ignore and I want to hear what you guys think.
For the sake of discussion, I'm going to use the Javelina Jundred as an example. Please feel free to share other examples to support or refute this opinion.
The JJ100 had a 42% finish rate. That's exceptionally low for any 100 miler.
I've been reading all the posts on social media and the overwhelming consensus is that the high daytime temperatures were to blame for the high DNF rate. The official recorded temps range from 92 to 94 but a lot of the DNF'd runners are posting recorded temps from their GPS devices at 102-106 degrees. By "official" I'm referring to the temperatures that the RD's recorded around the course.
I don't agree with this theory on the high DNF rate. I think people DNF'd for two reasons (which could be construed as one reason depending on how you frame it).
1. The JJ100 is what most people consider to be an "entry level 100" because it doesn't have a huge amount of elevation change, it's heavily supported and it's not technical. As a result, it MAY have a higher percentage of first time 100 milers and they may be coming into the race without the conditioning or experience to finish the distance. Therefore, a higher DNF rate wouldn't be a surprise.
2. They DNF'd because of a lack of preparation or proper understanding regarding fueling and hydrating in warm desert conditions. They blame the heat, but I would blame inexperience in dealing with the heat. A common complaint was cramping. That's a symptom of electrolyte depletion and is totally avoidable.
I saw similar arguments about extreme cold weather at the Bear and the Buffalo Run for being the reason for DNF's. Again, I would say this probably a lack of experience in running in freezing conditions.
Is it legitimate, or an easy excuse and a way to avoid blaming themselves?
If they are responsible for their own DNF and can't own up to it, can they learn from it?
What say you?
KillJoyFuckStick
Good analysis. I tend to agree with your sentiment. I had 3 friends run JJ, 2 of them completing it and the other was a DNF. Out of the 3 I would have only picked 1 to have finished. And finish he did in under 24 hours which didn't surprise me. He trains hard and is a good trail runner. The other who finished surprised me by coming in 30 minutes under the cutoff. She had done other 50 milers but I really didn't think she'd make the 100 miles. The third really had no business being out there. He was shooting for the 100K but DNF after 2 laps and 30sih miles; he was completely unprepared to go the distance on even the most perfect of days.
You people have issues
Did your friend that DNF'd give a reason for it?
"Heat"
As he lives in Phoenix I don't know how he could complain of the heat. He just wasn't prepared at all to run that kind of distance.
Thread killer ..
IMO it's because 100 miles is hard ?
The Tevis is a high profile example for horses and you can compare it with the WS . They both have around the same completion rate . The horses for the Tevis ( all endurance ) have an age requirement and for that race a prior mileage requirement . This year 2013 my pick for a top ten for the women's WS was Jen Benna , she DNF'd ( she won the women's 100 at Zion and the TRT 50k ) her blog tells why . I wasn't able to crew my friend this year for the Tevis , she is a FEI rider ( International ) who has been to USET selection as a possible member , she has 5 Tevis completions , she was pulled before Robinson Flat . ( horse would not pulse down , each race has a heart rate the horses must meet to Vet in ) . Both of these women (& horse) were well prepared, conditioned and knowledgeable about the course and the sport.
Why I compare them is they are pretty much the same race @ the same time of year .The horses though have a forced criteria they must meet or they can't go on . People have a much looser criteria, in some races none and it is left up to them to go on . The completion rate is still about the same . If people had a pull criteria like horses would the DNF increase or would it just start sooner ?
I haven't really looked but I am assuming the completion rate for most 100's is in the mid-low 50% range , same as for the horses . Awhile ago on Irunfar , I think, I read about offering a best condition for people like they do for horses . The Top 10 finishers come back and are judged the next day on how fit they are , horses are examined and must trot out for the judges . Just as an example if you go to the Tevis website you can see the Haggin Cup winners ( best condition ) isn't the race winner very often in some cases the race winner doesn't even come back to be judged for best condition . In endurance winning best condition is as big a deal or bigger than being the race winner . I have no idea how a best condition would be judged in people and don't remember if the author came up with one either . ( horses are judged on things like anal tone , heart rate , lameness , gut sounds , overall appearance ) .
Sorry for the rambling thoughts I drank real coffee today
2/3rds training
A few thoughts:
People's ability to cope with heat while exerting themselves varies greatly depending on the person and not always depending on their "fitness."
Even most runners who live in Phoenix (or anywhere else it gets hot during the day) will do most if not all their training in the very early morning to avoid the heat; not the best plan if you hope to race through daytime temps.
Cramping is not necessarily an electrolyte issue. The only time I've experienced severe cramping was a mere hour and a half into a 50k mountain bike race on a day with moderate highs. I rode way too hard from the start, way harder than I would normally sustain for an hour and the result was eventually to simply ride off the course and fall over from my calves seizing up. Given that I had hydrated and fuelled well before the start, there's no way I had depleted my electrolytes to that extent in that short of a time.
Some folks are silly and attempt things that are outside their abilities.
My not-entirely-running-related 'Gram
For the most part, I would agree with your assessment, Lace. Compare it to Leadville...more beginners with less experience (i.e. no qualifiers) = higher DNF rate. I don't remember what the conditions were like for Leadville this year but I know the finish rate was only around 50%. I know there were some overcrowding issues there this year but that's a whole other story.
I think the heat is still a factor though. Western States usually has around 80% finish rate but this year was only around 60%ish, and it was a very hot year. I think you'll see that % increase with the new qualifying standards, though I'm sure even experienced ultrarunners have trouble managing the heat sometimes.
-Danielle (Who will never enter a hot race)
Modified because I cannot seem to find solid % for WS 2013.
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Le professeur de trail
My opinion is not based on my own experience so take it for what it is worth. I have seen people DNF for many different reasons. Recently at OC, there was a higher than normal DNF rate - mostly was blamed on the odd heat and humidity during the day. I think it caught many people off guard since we had not had those temps and humidity for a while in PA. I don't think it serves as an excuse but certainly added to the difficlty level.
But your assessment is fair. Many people are probably not prepared enough or do a lousy job at fueling/hydrating during the event. I imagine this needs to change considerably based on the weather conditions. But any given runner on any given day could have a bad day.
My favorite day of the week is RUNday
Heat is a problem for me. I know how to deal with it, but I had to learn that the hard way. I don't enter into races or organized events very often, once or twice a year. I have one DNF, and it all boils down to this: I chose to quit, and I am okay with that because I learned a lot. And I will be back.
On that fateful day, I made several mistakes that ended my day:
1. I started way too fast.
2. I knew it would be warm, and despite that, I chose to take the bladder out of my hydration pack and replace it with extra food that I thought might be beneficial along the way. I made that decision as I stood in front of the hotel ice machine. I was going to fill the bladder with ice and let it melt throughout the morning. Had I done that, I firmly believe I would have had a better day just by having some cool water to drink.
3. I made a mathematical error that was compounded by the fact that I allowed someone's opinion that if I didn't get to a certain point at least an hour and a half ahead of cut off there was no way I could make the cutoffs later in the race. That is simply not true, but in my depleted state, I allowed myself to be convinced that it was true. I had plenty of time, and once I got some ice cold water, I felt fine. And I was still an hour ahead of the cutoffs. Yet, I just sat there like a freakin' idiot.
4. I quit.
So, it could be rain, mud, heat, under training, over training, cold, snow, sleet, hail, altitude, nausea, etc. on any given day on any given course. If you make the choice to continue fighting to finish, I don't think there is a course on the planet that can stop someone. If you say that the heat got to you or whatever as an explanation concerning what broke your spirit and you learn from it, I don't have a problem with that. I think that is how you learn to do these things more proficiently. But if you continuously DNF and blame the weather, trail, RD, or whatever, you are just wasting time and money.
LB2
I think the heat is still a factor though. Western States usually has around 80% finish rate but this year was only around 60%ish, and it was a very hot year.
Ok, ok, ok...but to my point...is HEAT the factor, or is it the athletes RESPONSE to the heat the real factor?
People did not DNF due to heat BSM.
In dog beers, I've only had one.
I think it is the athlete's response to any factor that counts. If it isn't one thing, it is going to be another. You have to adapt and overcome.
And, in my opinion, more importantly, be prepared for any eventuality and know how to appropriately respond to it.
Certainly the response is critical. Many people still think that drinking cold water will cool you down, but it doesn't really work. Dousing your head and neck is much more effective. Look at supported road bike racing where riders have access to all the cold water they want via support cars. When they are climbing up a hot long hill they can literally go through dozens of bottles just dumping them over their back and barely drinking anything. People need to realize that hydration and body temp management are two different things, both equally important in hot conditions.
Aha! You got me there. The heat causes poor responses in some athletes (albeit some not prepared for the heat, or alternatively, a perfectly heat trained athlete just having a bad day) and that leads to the DNF. So the heat is still a root factor in the DNF, but not the ULTIMATE cause. You can say this about mud, snow, rain, wind etc. too. But yes, it is ultimately how the athlete deals with it that will determine if they finish.