Okay, last chance for anybody who might want my spot for the full to speak up before I officially drop down to the half tomorrow. Going... Going...

Okay, last chance for anybody who might want my spot for the full to speak up before I officially drop down to the half tomorrow. Going... Going...

Gone.

First speaking for me personally.  I say a lot of things in my log entries.  Some is real, some is sandbagging, some is nonsense, some is the self-talk I feel I need that day either positive or negative.  Greg knows me as well as anyone here and said he is having a hard time getting a real read on where I am.

Since Boston, 2011, really, I've just been sort of a mess.  Up to that race, the previous two years had been just a series of higher highs, every race seemed like a PR.  I had PRd at the half 2 months earlier and really had visions of 3:10 at Boston in my first attempt.  Then I got goaded into dreaming even bigger with a tailwind, set on 3:05 being possible.  What a fucking joke.  I was really humbled that day, by far the worst running experience I have (still) ever had.

Philly in 2012 I never gave all of myself to.  I've never trained as well as I had in 2010.   I had 4 300 mile months leading up to Baystate in 2010, I've never come close to anything like that since.  Half ass trained for Philly, never felt great about it, almost got the BQ despite myself.  Then 2013 was sort of just a lost year, can't think of anything good about it.

This year for Maine Coast was about the most motivated I'd been in a while.  I put some decent (not spectacular) training into that.  I felt very confident after the ES20 and the training run on the course.  Really I had no doubt I would run 3:20 that day.  DNF. I didn't go out too hard, it just wasn't my day.  Then I foolishly doubled down on Vermont Cities with an even more humbling 4:10 or whatever it was.

I haven't run a good 5K in 3+ years either.

So I'm sitting on a series of massive fails with very little success thrown in there.  It's easy to be negative because well that's my recent experience.

Wilmington didn't help that cause for me - initially I was completely bullshit about the whole thing. But I know that that pace was not too hot on a normal day.  You guys all think I went out too fast - maybe if I wanted to account for the heat.  But I didn't.  I'm not that far from 1:30 HM shape right now, I know this.  This goes against what I write in my log I know.

Training for Baystate hasn't been great until September, but September was the best month I've had in years.  330+ miles, good interval workouts, hard tempos, easy pace getting faster, lots of good signs.  I'm choosing to try to ignore Wilmington. If I succeed at Baystate it won't matter.

So.  I again feel very positive about my 3:20 chances.  No, I most definitely will NOT go out too hot.  Every mile through 20 is planned to be no faster than 7:33 or so and no slower than 7:40.  If I get a 45 degree morning where I can rock my fancy arm warmers at the start I'm gonna be just fine.  And if I do that my plan will be to likely not run a spring marathon at all, though I'll train with y'all all winter.  Maybe try to get back in HM PR shape.

As for everyone else, Rob I think you have yourself down pretty well.  I think once you have a good long race (in your estimation) you're definitely capable of 3:10ish type times - but you'd be foolish to go for that now.  You  have 3:25 BQ time right?  I guess it just depends on the day but you sure seem in at least as good of shape as me.  So it worries me when you downplay because you have more miles than me and just ran a FUCKING 19:04!  Anyway.

Eric's right in that range of 3:10 being a "day has to break right" race and 3:15 being pretty pedestrian.  Just depends on the experience he wants to have.

When I saw Mike run 3:21 at MC on that day in that heat with no giving in it altered my view of him as a runner.  I view him more now like Greg C - just mentally able to will himself to whatever he set out to do.  If he wants to run 3:20, he'll run 3:20.  If he wants 2:50 it will be 2:50.  Kidding.  Sort of.  But yeah 3:20 seems like a good target.

I think Doug's doing the full.  His leg issue has me worried.  And his late race calf issues.  He gets those things sorted out 3:20 is right there. I think he was in better shape this spring though as he hasn't been able to run as many miles.

Alicia is capable of big things.  Those things are all still ahead of her.  I'll let her say what she can do if she wants to contribute here.  I know the plan is to go out at 3:20 pace and go from there, and I know that most of you think that is very conservative.  Again, it all depends on the experience each of us chooses to have, what risks we do and do not want to take, what we want to make sure we come out of a race feeling.  I will say that I know that despite the BQ and the race results and the stunning improvement, I don't think she is particularly happy with a single one of her race results to date.  And that says something.

Steve needs to have a good marathon and deserves it, and I really, really hope we get a cool day not only for me but for him.  I want to see what he can do if conditions are decent.  A 1:37 half was very possible at Wilmington and 3:30 seems like a reasonable target on a good day.

I'm not handicapping finishing order.  We're all relatively close enough that it just depends on how the day aligns.  It would seem that fitness-wise there is Eric and Alicia and then there are the rest of us.  If the Greg's were running the full I would throw them in that category as well.

I just hope we all get what we want out of it, honestly.  And for me that's 3:19 and change.

mta: also, if there is any chance that any part of this race will be run at 65 degrees or more, I am extremely unlikely to even make the trip down.  I will eat the registration cost and I have absolutely zero interest in running a slower race just to run another goddamned marathon.

For the rest of you, I hope you all run the race you are capable of.  That means a 45-degree race temperature for you, Lance.  In that case, I'll have a few layers on and hope to hang with Greg C for the half.

First off,

I don't think Lance and I aren't really far off here on our assessments.  He likes to beat himself up, I do the same on occasion.  In some ways all of us do that to motivate ourselves.

Maine Coast was what? >65?  Too hot for me and I think too hot for most of you.  (Greg#2 being the exception).  ES20 was easily 30 degrees cooler.  I can't run in the heat and just about everyone had a bad day.  I agree Mike seems mentally locked in and seems to be able to better cope with shit like that, a huge advantage in a marathon over a 5K.  High Street mile, yea i beat him but heck even I can be mentally tough for under five and a half minutes.

"Every mile through 20 is planned to be no faster than 7:33 or so and no slower than 7:40"

I suppose this plays into what type of experience you want to have as you mentioned.  I get it, running 3:25 for you is like kissing your sister or Steve.  Trying to force any pace can come with either great rewards or great consequences.  Running on the edge is like that and some of my best races ever where like that.  I'm talking like low high 16's 5Ks and around 1:56 800m times where I would literally puke or dry heave as I crossed the line trying to hang on.  Doing that for a 800m or a 5k is one thing, doing that for a marathon is another for me mentally. Perhaps that is just racing experience, which i lack at the marathon level.

I have no specific planned pace for any mile going into this.  I don't have enough marathons under my belt where I think this is something I could do if I wanted to successfully.  My plan is to go out at whatever I perceive to be the right effort for how I feel that day and the conditions.  If it turns out to be 7:30s great, if it turns out to be 8:10s well, I'll go with that and hope at some point I will slide into another gear and see what I have left with 10K to go.

I had a planned pace at Sugarloaf a few years back, my first marathon.  It was also the first race in my lifetime I didn't finish.  (Besides one I tried to run on in High School with a torn Achilles tendon, while in an air-cast back when i was mentally tougher or just dumb.)

"So it worries me when you downplay because you have more miles than me and just ran a FUCKING 19:04!  "

For what it is worth, I had been targeting this race since i was injured last year.  It was my last ditch effort to hold off my son in a head to head race.  I was as mentally locked in for this as any race in years.  This was a huge confidence boost, no doubt but also never happier to lose.  A 5K and marathon are two totally different animals though, but the speed does give me the potential for 3:10s or whatever in the future.  If I can stay healthy, I like to think I still have a shot at sub 3:10 or better.

When I first joined this group, Lance was running great and a target for me.  I haven't stayed healthy long enough to run my best against many of you.  I hope I can stay healthy and Lance can break this racing funk.  Steve is due to knock this mother out.

Let's see how Mike deals with being the front runner!

Is what you fat chicks do Steve actually considered running?  Or is it more of a controlled waddle?  You in good shape, Doug confirmed he is doing the full.Just run in stealth mode next to him.

North Coast Old Rasputin Russian Imperial Stout

? Tell me more.

And BTW your race will be fine. Stick with me as I attempt to hobble my way through another one of these.