OK, I know what I think my goal time should be but I'd like to get some input from you guys. My log is open if you want to have a look at that, feel free.
Assuming perfect weather conditions and I'm having a great day (big assumptions, I know) I have three goals in mind.
C: 3:50 if I lose my mind.
ETA: I didn't mean to this quite yet. I thought I backed out but I must have clicked the button by mistake.
My plan is to line up with the 3:55 pacer and run with them for at least a few miles but probably for the entire first half of the race. From there I will evaluate how I feel and decide if I want to try to pick up the pace just a little or stay with them. This is of course based on the assumption that the pacer is running even splits. I know it would have to be an exceptional day to make up 5 minutes in 13 miles so I doubt I'll hit 3:50 but if it feels right that's what I'm going to shoot for.
"Address the process rather than the outcome. Then, the outcome becomes more likely." - Robert Fripp
PRs: Marathon (2:49xx; '13) Half (1:24:13; '15) 10k (37:25; '14) 5mi (29:23; '13) 5k (17:27; '14)
I'm thinking A or C in perfect conditions. Don't stop on Rock Creek to do pull ups on the equipment and you'll be golden.
“What counts is not necessarily the size of the dog in the fight – it’s the fight in the dog. – Dwight D. Eisenhower
My blog is JT Running DC. It's awesome.
I vote for going out at A too, evaluating at the halfway point like you said. You've had some good tempos, like that really strong run on 2/15, that would make me say faster, but best to be conservative at the start. I would bet that you feel good at the halfway point and can pick it up, though. Definitely going to be a huge PR for you!
thinkin about glory days
Scott, there is no doubt you are going to get yourself a HUGE PR!
I too think A is the way to go. Your tempo run this morning suggests that your fitness is better now than it was at the time of your half in the fall. I wouldn't be surprised if you end up picking it up in the second half and and coming in around 3:53. But going out at 3:55 pace still leaves you with a nice 5 min cushion to break 4 hours in case you start to run out of gas.