The thing that killed me is that the WSER runners are all experienced trail runners, not a bunch of newbie-road converts. I am not exaggerating when I say it was the most litter I have ever seen in any race.
I think this problem may be totally solved now. As I mentioned, they do pound "no littering" into you pretty well in the briefings. And also on the Memorial Day weekend training runs. I was not paying particular attention, but certainly there was not an excessive amount of litter -- I don't specifically recall seeing any.
"Way to make Borat look overdressed"
7.6% it is .... or @ 1 in 13 chance.
Good luck everyone - I hope you all get in.
Final odds are 7.6% for one ticket, 14.6% for two, 21.1% for three, and 27.1% for four. DEC 8 LOTTERY DETAILS
Final odds are 7.6% for one ticket, 14.6% for two, 21.1% for three, and 27.1% for four.
http://a-big-horse.blogspot.com/
2013 Goals ~ Mar < 3:00, 5M < 29, 10k < 35
I am guessing you are from WI ~ Beaver Dam, WI?
I used the Glacial Trail 50 mIler for my (losing) ticket last year.
7.6% it is .... or @ 1 in 13 chance. Good luck everyone - I hope you all get in.
Yeah. I'm 0-for 6 in the NYC Marathon lottery (odds about 15-20%) and about 1-for-5 lifetime in coin flips. OK that could be confirmation bias but I'm way less than 50-50. So I won't be holding my breath on this one and that's OK, I have a great backup plan.
"Able to function despite imminent catastrophe"
"The most common question from potential entrants is 'I do not know if I can do this' to which I usually answer, 'that's the whole point'.--Paul Charteris, Tarawera Ultramarathon RD.
"They just couldn't believe that somebody would do all that running for no reason."--Forrest Gump
Boston Marathon 15 April
Big Sur Marathon 28 April
Bighorn 50 Mile 15 June
Tahoe Rim Trail 100M 20/21 July
My problem is, I have a score to settle with the course. But it will probably take several years to get my shot.
and 27.1% for four.
So, your saying I have a 72.9% chance i will be disappointed?
My current avatar reflects my opinion of my chances in the lottery. That is all.
One more thing. After drawing 270 tickets, they will draw 5 more -- from the pool of people physically attending the lottery. I don't know how many will be there, but that may offer a non-negligible boost for anyone who wants to hang out in Auburn next weekend.
some guy last year on the televised lottery for WS100 got selected for the third year in a row.
Looked like 100-200 ppl attend the drawing last year.
I was drawn 2x in three years for NYC - no clue how.
So that's an extra few percent chance by attending, a substantial relative increase from 7.6%.
Ooooh, boosted odds. Now 7.9%, 15.2%, 21.9%, 28.0%.
Probabilities.
You are talking probabilities, not odds.
They must have weeded out a few non-qualifiers or something.
Best Pace Scenario
Uh oh... now what?
Probabilities. You are talking probabilities, not odds.
No, not probabilities, just percentages of likelihood. Probabilities are between 0.0 and 1.0 inclusive.
Does we do math here?
And the trend is, next year when I'll have two chances, my odds will be about the same.
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