Ultra Runners

WS100 Lottery (Read 583 times)


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    No, not probabilities, just percentages of likelihood.  Probabilities are between 0.0 and 1.0 inclusive.  

    Does we do math here?

     

    Heh. 

     


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      No, not probabilities, just percentages of likelihood.  Probabilities are between 0.0 and 1.0 inclusive.  

      Does we do math here?

       

      Same thing -- 7.9% = .079.

       

      Guilty on odds vs. probability. (But "boosted odds" is correct.)


      Uh oh... now what?

        Same thing -- 7.9% = .079.

         

        Guilty on odds vs. probability. (But "boosted odds" is correct.)

         As in the previous post:  " Ooooh, boosted odds. Now 7.9%, 15.2%, 21.9%, 28.0%."

         

        The probabilities (stated as percentages which is sort of the same) have

        been boosted, if boosted is taken to mean the probability of success has

        increased.  Yer still talking about probabilities, not odds.

         

        Odds are the number of chances for (against) versus the number of chances

        against (for).

         

        100/7.9 ≈ 12

         

        Using the 7.9% probability, for any one draw there is approximately 1 chance

        of being selected and 11 chances of not being selected.  The odds are 11 to

        1 against your being selected.  The odds are 1 to 11 in favor of your being selected.

         

        All totally irrelevant since the WS Web site uses odds when probability is meant,

        so correctness of definition doesn't matter, and I've probably totally screwed it

        up--pulling it from memory of years ago.  It is what Western says it is.


        Best Present Ever

           As in the previous post:  " Ooooh, boosted odds. Now 7.9%, 15.2%, 21.9%, 28.0%."

           

          The probabilities (stated as percentages which is sort of the same) have

          been boosted, if boosted is taken to mean the probability of success has

          increased.  Yer still talking about probabilities, not odds.

           

          Odds are the number of chances for (against) versus the number of chances

          against (for).

           

          100/7.9 ≈ 12

           

          Using the 7.9% probability, for any one draw there is approximately 1 chance

          of being selected and 11 chances of not being selected.  The odds are 11 to

          1 against your being selected.  The odds are 1 to 11 in favor of your being selected.

           

          All totally irrelevant since the WS Web site uses odds when probability is meant,

          so correctness of definition doesn't matter, and I've probably totally screwed it

          up--pulling it from memory of years ago.  It is what Western says it is.

           

          this is so.  Except the odds are 82.1/7.9=10.39


          Uh oh... now what?

            I think the for/against should sum to the number of chances?

             

            Odds are usually integer values (except where Vegas puts in

            a half-point to get rid of ties).

             

            7.9% for leaves 92.1% against (totals 100%)

             

            I used 100/7.9 ≈ 12 draws (total chances) with 1 for and 11 against.

             

            #1 now) I am trying to figure out why the listed percentages do

            not total 100% (7.9 + 15.2 + 21.9 + 28.0 = 73.0).  I do not

            have access to the calculations, but the total chances (to

            win plus not to win) usually should total 1.0 or 100 (prob

            or percentage).

             

            #2 now) I should not have read this at all.

              It turns out that I will be at a funeral service (my sister-in-law's stepfather) on Saturday around noon, so I will be off the grid while the results are made public.  

               

              The lottery results aren't going anywhere, though, and I'll find out one way or another anyway.

              Raidergwen


              Night's Watch

                It turns out that I will be at a funeral service (my sister-in-law's stepfather) on Saturday around noon, so I will be off the grid while the results are made public.  

                 

                The lottery results aren't going anywhere, though, and I'll find out one way or another anyway.

                 

                You'll know because your FB wall will explode.


                BatCow

                  You'll know because your FB wall will explode.

                   

                  I thought exactly the same thing! Jason, be sure to put your phone on mute if you've got Facebook notifications on!

                  `I don't think--'

                  `Then you shouldn't talk,' said the Hatter.


                  I'm back!

                    You'll know because your FB wall will explode.

                     

                    That's how I found out last year. I was at a workshop in the VIrgin Islands -- I had totally spaced what day the drawing was, figuring I wouldn't get in anyway.

                      Good luck everyone!

                      Upcoming races: 7/13 Light at the End of the Tunnel, 8/10 Angels Staircase 35K, 10/12 Victoria Marathon

                       

                      My woefully neglected blog.


                      I'm back!

                        I also bought 10 raffle tickets at the last minute. Only good for 2014, but hey, might as well get a leg up. I have no idea what the raffle odds are.

                          The issue here is that there are several tranches of risk vying for the same outcome.  The selection order is important.  Suppose that the first 122 selections are all the 4 ticket runners. Then that leaves 3555 - 488 = 3067 tickets.  A particular single-ticket holder then has a 1 in 3067 chance of being #123, and generally as improved odds of being selected somewhere between #123 and #270.  Contrast that to the first 122 selections being 1 ticket runners, leaving 3555 - 122 = 3433 tickets.  Now, a particular single-ticket holder then has a 1 in 3433 chance of being #123.  Given that the remaining number of tickets changes by anywhere from 1 -4 with each draw, the overall probability of selection for each tranche cannot be calculated in closed form and must be simulated. 

                           

                          Here's how you get to 1.0:

                           

                          ON AVERAGE (!!!)

                           

                          43.5% of winners will have 1 ticket

                          27.0% of winners will have 2 tickets

                          16.8% of winners will have 3 tickets

                          12.7% of winners will have 4 tickets

                           

                           

                          2295 applicants for 270 spots in a 100 mile ultra is mind-boggling.  Good luck to all who entered.  If you do not win, there are 107 other 100 mile ultras in North America to choose from in 2013.

                           

                           

                          I think the for/against should sum to the number of chances?

                           

                          Odds are usually integer values (except where Vegas puts in

                          a half-point to get rid of ties).

                           

                          7.9% for leaves 92.1% against (totals 100%)

                           

                          I used 100/7.9 ≈ 12 draws (total chances) with 1 for and 11 against.

                           

                          #1 now) I am trying to figure out why the listed percentages do

                          not total 100% (7.9 + 15.2 + 21.9 + 28.0 = 73.0).  I do not

                          have access to the calculations, but the total chances (to

                          win plus not to win) usually should total 1.0 or 100 (prob

                          or percentage).

                           

                          #2 now) I should not have read this at all.

                          2013 H1:  7 hours/week base.  Q3: Train for goal race.  Q4:  Goal Race.


                          I'm back!

                            #1 now) I am trying to figure out why the listed percentages do

                            not total 100% (7.9 + 15.2 + 21.9 + 28.0 = 73.0).  I do not

                            have access to the calculations, but the total chances (to

                            win plus not to win) usually should total 1.0 or 100 (prob

                            or percentage).

                             

                             

                            Simpler answer to this question:

                             

                            There's no reason they should; those are meaningless numbers to add. Those are not chances to win plus chances not to win. Suppose instead there were only single-ticket holders, and there are 79 slots but 1,000 tickets. Then the only percentage is 7.9%. That doesn't add to 100%.

                            jjameson


                              I'm not in the lottery, but I'm enjoying the math discussion.

                               

                               


                              Bacon Party!

                                Oh crap ... Dead

                                 

                                And, yay for Jay! Smile

                                Liz

                                pace sera, sera