# WS100 Lottery (Read 583 times)

HoosierDaddy and past Monkey winner Traci Falbo are in.

"Make no little plans. They have no magic to stir men's blood."  -Daniel Burnham

Oh crap ...

Congratulations (???)

How many tickets did you have?

2013 H1:  7 hours/week base.  Q3: Train for goal race.  Q4:  Goal Race.

Bacon Party!

Congratulations (???)

How many tickets did you have?

Just one

Liz

pace sera, sera

I missed a bunch of results and thought you were "Oh Crap"ping at not being selected.

"Make no little plans. They have no magic to stir men's blood."  -Daniel Burnham

Bacon Party!

No. The other.

They'd just called a buddy's name and I was still celebrating for him when I heard my city ...

Guess it's time to put down the bon-bons.

Liz

pace sera, sera

Congrats Liz and Jay!

Uh oh... now what?

There's no reason they should; those are meaningless numbers to add. Those are not chances to win plus chances not to win. Suppose instead there were only single-ticket holders, and there are 79 slots but 1,000 tickets. Then the only percentage is 7.9%. That doesn't add to 100%.

This will get lost later on.

The total opportunities, wins (got drawn) plus loses (did not get drawn) had better total

100 percent.  If not, there are draws with no name picked.

(one-ticket) + (two-ticket) + (three-ticket) + (four-ticket) = all, unless there are draws with no name selected.

p1 + p2 + p3 + p4 must equal 1.00 unless there are draws with no ticket holders (a null ticket?),

then it would be

p1 + p2 + p3 + p4 + p= 1.00 where pn is no name drawn.

In your 79-slot example, the 79 has no bearing on the probability.  The probability would be how

many tickets out of the thousand does each contestant have.  If each person has one ticket, the

initial probability is 0.001 (1/1000), after that assuming no replacement, the next probability is

1/999, and so on until all 79 slots are filled.

If you have 4 tickets out of the thousand, your initial probability is 4/1000--nothing to do with the 79 slots.

Eye of Sauron

For those of us just catching up, does Jay = HoosierDaddy?

And once again Mr. Wizard (aka: Stevie Ray) explains the internet.

For those of us just catching up, does Jay = HoosierDaddy?

Yes.  Congrats HD and Buzzie.

For those of us just catching up, does Jay = HoosierDaddy?

Yes.  So excited - now I have to get my body healthy.

Ultra Cowboy

What bout Jason Rogers of GA?

Western Wanderer: Horses, Hunting, Running, and Life in the West.

Race Calendar:

Grizzly Peak 50k April 7 2013

Annadel Trail Half Marathon April 13,2013

Western States Training Camp 20 mi. May 27th, 2013

Crewing Calendar

Miwok 100 60k May 4, 2013

Western States June 29, 2013

What bout Jason Rogers of GA?

No dice for me this year, but that's okay.  My bank account is breathing a sigh of relief.

Right now, I'm thinking Grindstone 100 in October.  I've really got to bust out some hardcore training for that one, though.

Just went to Vermont 100 to sign up - so I can do Grand Slam.  It is full! and Im 68th on wait list.  What a bummer.

Ultra Cowboy

Well Jason I'll be keeping an eye out for you for 2014.  Sav up those vacation days because you are gonna need 'em...

Western Wanderer: Horses, Hunting, Running, and Life in the West.

Race Calendar:

Grizzly Peak 50k April 7 2013

Annadel Trail Half Marathon April 13,2013

Western States Training Camp 20 mi. May 27th, 2013

Crewing Calendar

Miwok 100 60k May 4, 2013

Western States June 29, 2013

Bacon Party!

Just went to Vermont 100 to sign up - so I can do Grand Slam.  It is full! and Im 68th on wait list.  What a bummer.

Y'all can call me Jane if you want, but ... how does that Slam entry stuff work?

For some reason, I had some crazy idea that there might be some entry "exceptions" made for Slam-wannabes who make it through the WS hurdle.

Liz

pace sera, sera