Ultra Runners

WS100 Lottery (Read 583 times)


A Sweetheart

    HoosierDaddy and past Monkey winner Traci Falbo are in.

    I want to do it because I want to do it.  -Amelia Earhart

      Oh crap ... Dead

       

       

       

      Congratulations (???)

       

      How many tickets did you have?

      2013 H1:  7 hours/week base.  Q3: Train for goal race.  Q4:  Goal Race.


      Bacon Party!

        Congratulations (???)

         

        How many tickets did you have?

         Just one

        Liz

        pace sera, sera


        A Sweetheart

          I missed a bunch of results and thought you were "Oh Crap"ping at not being selected.

          I want to do it because I want to do it.  -Amelia Earhart


          Bacon Party!

            No. The other.

            They'd just called a buddy's name and I was still celebrating for him when I heard my city ... Shocked

             

            Guess it's time to put down the bon-bons.

            Liz

            pace sera, sera

              Congrats Liz and Jay!


              Uh oh... now what?

                Simpler answer to this question:

                 

                There's no reason they should; those are meaningless numbers to add. Those are not chances to win plus chances not to win. Suppose instead there were only single-ticket holders, and there are 79 slots but 1,000 tickets. Then the only percentage is 7.9%. That doesn't add to 100%.

                 This will get lost later on.

                 

                The total opportunities, wins (got drawn) plus loses (did not get drawn) had better total

                100 percent.  If not, there are draws with no name picked.

                 

                (one-ticket) + (two-ticket) + (three-ticket) + (four-ticket) = all, unless there are draws with no name selected.

                 

                p1 + p2 + p3 + p4 must equal 1.00 unless there are draws with no ticket holders (a null ticket?),

                 

                then it would be

                 

                p1 + p2 + p3 + p4 + p= 1.00 where pn is no name drawn.

                 

                In your 79-slot example, the 79 has no bearing on the probability.  The probability would be how

                many tickets out of the thousand does each contestant have.  If each person has one ticket, the

                initial probability is 0.001 (1/1000), after that assuming no replacement, the next probability is

                1/999, and so on until all 79 slots are filled.

                 

                If you have 4 tickets out of the thousand, your initial probability is 4/1000--nothing to do with the 79 slots.

                xor


                  For those of us just catching up, does Jay = HoosierDaddy?

                   

                    For those of us just catching up, does Jay = HoosierDaddy?

                     

                    Yes.  Congrats HD and Buzzie.

                    HoosierDaddy


                      For those of us just catching up, does Jay = HoosierDaddy?

                       

                      Yes.  So excited - now I have to get my body healthy.  Smile


                      Ultra Cowboy

                        What bout Jason Rogers of GA?

                        Looking for a reason to run...

                          What bout Jason Rogers of GA?

                           

                          No dice for me this year, but that's okay.  My bank account is breathing a sigh of relief. 

                           

                          Right now, I'm thinking Grindstone 100 in October.  I've really got to bust out some hardcore training for that one, though.

                          HoosierDaddy


                            Just went to Vermont 100 to sign up - so I can do Grand Slam.  It is full! and Im 68th on wait list.  What a bummer.


                            Ultra Cowboy

                              Well Jason I'll be keeping an eye out for you for 2014.  Sav up those vacation days because you are gonna need 'em...

                              Looking for a reason to run...


                              Bacon Party!

                                Just went to Vermont 100 to sign up - so I can do Grand Slam.  It is full! and Im 68th on wait list.  What a bummer.

                                Y'all can call me Jane if you want, but ... how does that Slam entry stuff work?

                                For some reason, I had some crazy idea that there might be some entry "exceptions" made for Slam-wannabes who make it through the WS hurdle.

                                Liz

                                pace sera, sera