Two years ago Yassine Diboun was running the Deception Pass 50K as the names were getting pulled. We got to tell him the great news that he got in as he crossed the finish line for the 50K… as the winner!
Hmm. I wonder... should I throw my hat in now to get an extra ticket for 2015? Probably not cool. And what would happen if I "got in"?
I guess this answers my question. Ah well.
Each runner who enters the Lottery and fails to gain entry into the Run (and otherwise doesn’t gain an entry via other means such as an aid station, sponsor, or MUC spot) will have one additional name in the electronic Hat ... when entering the Lottery the following year,
<sigh> 2761 entrants <sigh>
I do believe when you win the ticket in the $ lottery you can sell it or give the entry away ... I would say be nice, but that would be like asking a drunk Aussie to not want to touch your hair.
Is using the term, "jerkface" too immature for this group?
I am fuller bodied than Dopplebock
You can give it away, but you can't sell it. Too late, I'm already registered.
Woo hoo! The number is now down to 2,733. Pretty much guaranteed a spot now!
WSER news page just updated. Here are the cold, hard numbers for this year:
The rapid growth in number of applicants for the WS lottery, continues. We currently have 2730 applicants entered in the December 7 lottery for the 41st running of the Western States Endurance Run on June 28-29, 2014.
As described on our lottery page, each runner who enters the lottery and fails to gain entry into the Run (and otherwise doesn’t gain an entry via other means such as an aid station, sponsor, or MUC spot) will have one additional name in the hat (for a total of two) when entering the lottery the following year, thus improving the probability of being selected. Every lottery applicant will receive an additional name in the hat for each consecutive failure to gain entry.
Click here to see the list of applicants and their ticket counts. This is not the final list. We will update that page and this post with final numbers before the lottery. We will also make available the actual tickets that will get printed and placed into the bucket and drawn from on December 7.
Based on Monte Carlo Simulations, assuming we draw 270 names, we have calculated the probabilities of being selected as follows:
Huh. To me that looks like 4,338 total tickets. Monte Carlo simulation is not necessary to calculate the odds for single-ticket holders; that should be 270 / 4,338 = 6.22%. Right??
Actually I'm pretty sure Monte Carlo is overkill for the N-ticket holders as well. With 4,338 tickets, and 270 draws, there are 4,338 choose 270 possible draws. For an N-ticket holder, there are (4,338 - N) choose 270 possible draws that don't select one of the N tickets. So we can easily calculate the odds:
(... working... damn Google Spreadshsheet can't compute 4,338! ...)
... Oh. I simplified the expressions and calculated the values by hand, and got slightly lower percentages than they did for all N. Interestingly, I was able to get within .01% of their numbers if I used 280 slots instead of 270.
But then I remembered why this simple calculation doesn't work. If an N-ticket holder gets drawn, his remaining N-1 tickets are effectively removed from the pool. (Sorry, WG, you don't get to run twice this year.) That slightly raises the odds for everybody. And while there may be some analytical expression here, it would certainly be very hairy, and using Monte Carlo seems quite reasonable.
OK, nevermind!
Kalsarikännit
Bhearn, you are extra pretty when you talk gobbledygook.
I want to do it because I want to do it. -Amelia Earhart
Imminent Catastrophe
Huh. To me that looks like 4,338 total tickets. Monte Carlo simulation is not necessary to calculate the odds for single-ticket holders; that should be 270 / 4,338 = 6.22%. Right?? Actually I'm pretty sure Monte Carlo is overkill for the N-ticket holders as well. With 4,338 tickets, and 270 draws, there are 4,338 choose 270 possible draws. For an N-ticket holder, there are (4,338 - N) choose 270 possible draws that don't select one of the N tickets. So we can easily calculate the odds: (... working... damn Google Spreadshsheet can't compute 4,338! ...) ... Oh. I simplified the expressions and calculated the values by hand, and got slightly lower percentages than they did for all N. Interestingly, I was able to get within .01% of their numbers if I used 280 slots instead of 270. But then I remembered why this simple calculation doesn't work. If an N-ticket holder gets drawn, his remaining N-1 tickets are effectively removed from the pool. (Sorry, WG, you don't get to run twice this year.) That slightly raises the odds for everybody. And while there may be some analytical expression here, it would certainly be very hairy, and using Monte Carlo seems quite reasonable. OK, nevermind!
4338! is a really big number
"Able to function despite imminent catastrophe"
"To obtain the air that angels breathe you must come to Tahoe"--Mark Twain
"The most common question from potential entrants is 'I do not know if I can do this' to which I usually answer, 'that's the whole point'.--Paul Charteris, Tarawera Ultramarathon RD.
√ Javelina Jundred Jalloween 2015
Cruel Jewel 50 mile May 2016
Western States 100 June 2016
So where do they not give a *uck about Western States
Maine - 5
Wyoming - 5
South Dakota - 3
Delaware - 2
Mississippi - 1
North Dakota - 0
The 32 people from WI have a combined 50 tickets so in theory 3 of the 32 should get into the race = 50/4338 x 270 = 3.1
Funny, I only know 8 of the 32 (Including me), I do not know our ultra running community very well.
GreyBeard
I think I have 4 entries. Past three years that I didn't get in and one for this year. I like running new races, but having run this (badly) in 2010, I really believe that the knowledge of the course will serve me well in the future.
I think I have 4 entries. Past three years that I didn't get in and one for this year.
I like running new races, but having run this (badly) in 2010, I really believe that the knowledge of the course will serve me well in the future.
Ditto. And I have 1 ticket.
2020
So where do they not give a *uck about Western States Maine - 5
Woohoo I'm 1 of 5. I wish that improved my chances. Alas.
A list of my PRs in a misguided attempt to impress people that do not care.
+1. I've run most of the last 40 miles four times now, I think, getting to know it pretty well. Really, though, I need to run those canyons again. Maybe on the WS training run weekend.
I'm not even in the draw, but I can hardly wait to see the results this weekend!
Any hardrock lottery folks? I think I believe this is year 4 for me which means (I think) 24 tix in the "never run" category