Notes
0700AM 61F 88% Humidity, weight 125lb
1030AM 64F 88% Humidity, weight 121lb (94% humidity between 0735-0955)
+-636.5ft elevation change
30K prediction based on 5K PR (21:07) is 2:26:14
30K prediction based on marathon PR (3:59:04) is 2:45:32
30K prediction based on both PR is 2:42:17
Plan was to follow 330 marathon pacer (8:01/mi) and get a good HM target for next HM race, and expected to fade or blowup sometime after 13.1 because it seems a very aggressive goal. I was able to hold on until the end, and sped up a little ahead of the pacers after mile 17. A very good and unexpected result, almost dead even split! I don't think I can hold the pace for a full 330 though, but I think I'm much closer to 330 than I ever thought before.
I sync'ed most of my mile laps against the road mile markers and have adjusted the recorded splits accordingly in the log, so the split times are fairly reflective of the course time. The GPS data below are generated from the raw tcx so they're off slightly.
Garmin GPS record:
18.80 miles (30.26K) in 2:28:10.98 (7:53/mi)
Pace is off official by ~4s/mi due to not running tangent
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Full distance pace at specific distances
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5.0 km: 00:24:26 04:53/km 07:52/mi
5.0 mi: 00:39:10 04:52/km 07:50/mi
10.0 km: 00:48:43 04:52/km 07:50/mi << closer to ~49:00 on course
15.0 km: 01:13:35 04:54/km 07:54/mi
10.0 mi: 01:18:55 04:54/km 07:53/mi
20.0 km: 01:38:13 04:55/km 07:54/mi
13.1 mi: 01:43:39 04:55/km 07:54/mi << closer to ~1:44:30 on course
15.0 mi: 01:58:55 04:56/km 07:56/mi
25.0 km: 02:03:06 04:55/km 07:55/mi
30.0 km: 02:27:04 04:54/km 07:53/mi
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30.2 km: 02:28:09 04:54/km 07:53/mi
18.8 mi: 02:28:09 04:54/km 07:53/mi
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Split and pace per km
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1.0 km: 04:52 04:52/km 07:50/mi
2.0 km: 04:53 04:53/km 07:51/mi
3.0 km: 04:52 04:52/km 07:50/mi
4.0 km: 04:57 04:57/km 07:58/mi
5.0 km: 04:53 04:53/km 07:51/mi
6.0 km: 04:49 04:49/km 07:44/mi
7.0 km: 04:49 04:49/km 07:45/mi
8.0 km: 04:53 04:53/km 07:52/mi
9.0 km: 04:51 04:51/km 07:49/mi
10.0 km: 04:55 04:55/km 07:55/mi
11.0 km: 04:51 04:51/km 07:48/mi
12.0 km: 04:53 04:53/km 07:52/mi
13.0 km: 05:04 05:04/km 08:09/mi
14.0 km: 04:55 04:55/km 07:55/mi
15.0 km: 05:09 05:09/km 08:18/mi
16.0 km: 04:52 04:52/km 07:49/mi
17.0 km: 05:06 05:06/km 08:13/mi
18.0 km: 04:55 04:55/km 07:55/mi
19.0 km: 04:53 04:53/km 07:51/mi
20.0 km: 04:52 04:52/km 07:49/mi
21.0 km: 05:00 05:00/km 08:03/mi
22.0 km: 04:53 04:53/km 07:52/mi
23.0 km: 04:55 04:55/km 07:54/mi
24.0 km: 05:13 05:13/km 08:24/mi
25.0 km: 04:52 04:52/km 07:49/mi
26.0 km: 04:56 04:56/km 07:56/mi
27.0 km: 04:48 04:48/km 07:43/mi
28.0 km: 04:47 04:47/km 07:42/mi
29.0 km: 04:45 04:45/km 07:38/mi
30.0 km: 04:43 04:43/km 07:35/mi
30.2 km: 01:05 04:19/km 06:58/mi
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