2018 Boston Marathon Thread (Read 554 times)

 

Seeding

Recent Wave/Corral Cut Offs (2007-2015): http://community.runnersworld.com/fileSendAction/fcType/0/fcOid/107136731612777806/filePointer/107277470013264761/fodoid/107277470013264639/imageType/LARGE/inlineImage/true/Boston%2520Marathon%2520-%25202015%2520Corrals.JPG

 

 

 

 

Hi all

John here, from Seattle.  I will be running my first Boston this year.  I've been anxiously waiting since I ran my qualifying race in APRIL!  And I'm still waiting!!  I think I will most likely try a modified Hanson's plan with some tougher (and longer) long runs.  I did Daniels' 2Q for my last marathon and though it got me in, I feel like I could have done better for all the time and effort I put into his grueling long runs. And I actually felt like I was losing my top end speed toward the end.

 

3:23 did not surprise me at all.  And I expect it will continue to rise. The BQ cutoff analyses out there all overlooked the outsize effect of downhill marathons.  They pooled data mainly from the results of the largest marathons, the assumption being that people who earn a BQ will submit an entry application at equal rates across all races.  I argue that this is not true.  Many people sitting on "the bubble" know now that a BQ itself is no guarantee of a ticket to Boston, and they are heading to places like here and here and here to pad their qualifying margin. I think it is highly likely that a much higher proportion of those who earn a BQ at such a race will actually submit an entry with that time than those who earned it at a generic flat or hilly race. Downhill marathons have been around for a while, but it certainly has become a "thing" - and a heavily marketed "thing" - these days.

Being in Seattle also, I know about these races - a novelty race on a trail which has 2000 ft of drop at a nice, steady grade over the length of the race, has turned into a whole bunch of races each year on the same course. They're all pretty small though, so hard to believe they're having that much impact on Boston. But maybe so. If you were not surprised by 3:23, you were one of the few on the planet.

Of course it's also pretty tough to find even flattish races in the Seattle area in general, probably causing even more people migrate to these. I have been avoiding it, to try to get a "legit" BQ. Even though everyone who has qualified based on the downhill course tells me it's certified, so it counts. I figure they're rationalizing. Which I figured I would do at some point after I continued to fail to qualify based on other means. Missed it this year with a measly BQ-1.25.

But in more recent developments - yesterday I smashed my PR to bits and ran a BQ-6:21. Boom!

Julia - when are you starting that 2019 Boston thread??? 

DavePNW -

Congratulations on the awesome PR and BQ!  Any chance you were at the Snohomish River Run?  If so, you may have seen me there holding a "3:30" sign.

You are right about it being hard to find flat races in our area, but Snohomish was a really good one.  Perfect weather, flat, beautiful fall colors.  I was a little bummed that I wasn't actually racing that day because it was such a great day to run.

I agree with your thoughts about getting a "legit" BQ.  I wouldn't go so far as to say that downhill courses are "cheating", I think a good analogy is that you're stacking the deck heavily in your favor.

 

Yes I was! You must've been the graybeard with the Green Lake shirt and rainbow suspenders. I was the gray-hair with the red Newport Marathon shirt. I told you my goal was to stay ahead of you, which I did. And oh yes the conditions were perfect...obviously for me! I was really happy they added the marathon this year, because I've run the half, knew it was a good course, and that company puts on well-organized races. And it's a 20 min drive for me, hard to beat that for a marathon. I was a bit worried about being isolated, knowing it was going to be small, but you hook up with the half runners for a good chunk of it...nice as long as they get out of your way. And not much in the way of cheering throngs lining the chute...maybe when the half winners finished, but it was pretty empty by the time we pulled in. I was having such a good day though, nothing else mattered.

The flattest race around here is of course Skagit Flats. Which is indeed pancake flat. But in mid-Sept, it's usually pretty warm. And BO-ring. I've run the half and full there, and tanked both times.

At Wineglass, I bettered the BQ I submitted when registering by about 6 minutes.  So, does anyone happen to know when the BAA starts taking updated times?

Based on my notes from the first post, the deadline might be February 1st but I'm not sure when they start taking times.

I am a first timer.  I am in because I got old enough - meaning the cut-off was finally low enough for me.

 

Have my hotel booked and excited.

 

I am doing Marine Corps in 3 weeks and hope to qualify for 2019.

How'd you do?

It was a little too hot for a marathon.  I ran out of mini water bottles I was handing out before the 4-hour people came through.  And, I was only a half mile way from a water stop!

I'm beginning to think this race might be too risky for trying to run a fast time here.  I can't remember 2015 very well, but my sense is that the last four years have been a little warm for marathoning.

At Wineglass, I bettered the BQ I submitted when registering by about 6 minutes.  So, does anyone happen to know when the BAA starts taking updated times?

It looks like you can update your qualifying time now: http://www.baa.org/races/boston-marathon/participant-information/entry-list/update-qualifying-time.aspx

I was holding out hope that the 2018 jacket would at least be primarily blue or yellow but I guess not.  The 2017 one was pretty much perfect so I figured the 2018 would go back to ugly.

It almost looks more like orange than red to me.

Since this is my first Boston and I don't plan on making this an annual thing I still may buy the ugly thing.

Will they still have plenty available at the expo so I can wait and see if it is as ugly in person or do I need to buy one now to be sure and get one?

Thanks, Nathan