Is this a trend? (Read 241 times)

 

While I have no data to provide, my sense is that the growth of ultras has cut into marathoning some.  My anecdotal information (based on friends who are non-competitive runners) is that those who used to do a marathon for the purpose of impressing others with the distance now lean towards ultras.    And by contrast, those who used to train for marathons for the fitness benefits and post-race medal picture now gravitate towards shorter distances (that award medals).

 

I'd love to chart the trend of shorter distances awarding medals versus that of marathon participation.

Well looking at the data for total number of marathon finishers - I don't see a decline at all. It looks like steady growth till about 2010. Then basically flat since then, other than a spike in 2013-14. Hmm, did something happen in 2013 that might have inspired more people than usual to decide they wanted to run a marathon?

So I think the question is why has it flattened rather than continuing to grow. Could be due to a growth in ultras. Or could just be saturation of the market - whatever the number of people is represented by the half-million finishes, there may just not be more than that who are stupid enough to do such a thing.

That is a funny comment about shorter races with medals though. I think most of us have seen the explosion just in the last few years - it used to be the exception when a 5k gave medals, now it's more the rule. I am guessing RDs have determined that's what brings the crowds. Those of us here who race for competition and AG awards, and DGAF about medals (or other race day fluff), are in the small minority of participants.

HC - our local timed race (6, 12, 24, 48 hour) also has a marathon group. It's small, and as you suggested, they are slow. I imagine they would be lumped in with ultras rather than marathons. For someone who wants to say they completed a marathon but who doesn't think they can do it in 6 hours, it's an option.

 

Perhaps the  2012 Summer Olympics inspired people to run the following year(s)?

Possible, but I don't see 2013 as a spike so much as the missing 45,000+ finishers from the cancelled 2012 NYCM.  487k + 45k = 532k and the trend goes back to being pretty linear.

 

Possible, but I don't see 2013 as a spike so much as the missing 45,000+ finishers from the cancelled 2012 NYCM.  487k + 45k = 532k and the trend goes back to being pretty linear.

 

2010	507,000
2011	518,000
2012	487,000 (NYC Marathon cancelled)
2013	541,000
2014	550,600 (Record High)

With the demise of RWOL, can we expect a massive collapse in the numbers for 2018?

The biggest race in my area is a 15 miler. I ran it 13 times from 77 to around 91

At its peak it was 1500 this year under 500. But they have added a 5k and a 3 person relay.

 Not sure you can just add 45k to 2012 - presumably some of the NYCM runners found other races. If 15k did, then you're equal to 2011.

Fair point, but 15k I think would be a stretch.  The event was cancelled 36 hours prior to the start.  ~45% of participants are from outside of the US, so if they ran another marathon in their home country, it wouldn't count in the metric.  About 2,000 did an impromptu marathon in Central Park but it was an unofficial race, thus not added.  Finding another convenient marathon in less than two months of the year in the US would be pretty hard IMO (but not impossible).

In any case, I think the fluctuation of the numbers is due to multiple factors.  I'd think a more scientific study would need to be done to find out which one(s) contribute the most... independently peer reviewed study, of course. 

I wonder if warmer temperatures have anything to do with slower times?  My October marathon promised 50s and I got 70s and humid.  It might be my selective memory, but it does seem to be a trend.

Trend of warmer temperatures? Whoever heard of such a thing!