The COVID-19 Wild West Thread (Read 601 times)

Also, what MikeyMike said.

I saw a recent poll that only 27% of Americans will get the vaccine the minute it's available. I agree it's the government's job to convince folks to get it, but that doesn't mean they will. It also may mean we only get that number up to 2/3 of Americans. So when I say widely available, I actually do think it will be widely available this spring, mainly because people aren't going to be rushing out to get it. Note that people not getting the vaccine aren't necessarily anti-maskers, they're just worried this whole thing is getting rushed.

On the office side, even if people are asked to come in twice a week (which I think is the way of the future), that still requires them to be vaccinated. Maybe that reduced traffic will lower the need to be vaccinated, but I don't think employees will be comfortable with any time in the office and mass transit without being vaccinated.

Darkwave - I definitely think it's more the PR side of it, not whether company's will be legally liable. No company is going to fire someone in June 2021 if they aren't coming into the office and a vaccine is available. But how long will that last? I certainly know that my patience is going to wear thin for people if they refuse to get vaccinated if everything looks safe. I also think there will be a small subset of folks who will refuse to get vaccinated not because they fear the vaccine, but because they want to continue 100% work-at-home as long as they can.

To your point about flashing something saying you're vaccinated: that will be an interesting world if it comes to that. Can't wait to see the fakes that are produced.

I actually do think it will be widely available this spring, mainly because people aren't going to be rushing out to get it.

 Trent -"Once approved, 330 million doses x 2 will need to be produced in the US, then distributed cold via supply chains that don't currently exist to clinics and public health settings that are not yet set up to vaccinate masses. This will take a long time to set up."

The US government has started signing contracts for vaccine, with two big ones being to Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech for their mRNA vaccines.  While I've expressed my long-term excitement for this technology, as I posted before and Trent notes above, this is not the flu vaccine.  The supply chain and infrastructure to manufacture, distribute, and administer these vaccines by the millions literally doesn't exist.  Distributing ANY therapeutic which requires shipping at -80F is daunting; doing so in quantities of millions has never been done before.  Your average doc's office or even hospital doesn't have the equipment to store it or store in a large quantity.

I think we'll have at-risk populations getting vaccinated by spring.  I don't think the average person will have at-will access for longer.  This assumes one or more work...

Agree. Lots of speculation that there will be an EUA for high risk groups such as healthcare providers and certain patient populations. The rest of the population would likely follow. This approach requires ongoing distancing and masking/PPE requirements for those who were immunized since there won't be anything remotely like herd immunity for a long time to follow.

I think we'll have at-risk populations getting vaccinated by spring.  I don't think the average person will have at-will access for longer.  This assumes one or more work...

 

It seems to be impossible for our special buddy here to make a post without sliding in some weird goddamn reference to racism. I don't get that.

 

 

Genuine straight up question....what did he say that was a reference to racism?

It always comes back, for me, to the effectiveness of masks. If they work we shouldn't need a vaccine. If they don't work we shouldn't need to wear them. If you're vaccinated then I shouldn't need to be since you're protected.

Of course it does.

Based on nearly everything you post, you only see anything in black and white. On and off. Hot and cold. You only see things as opposing extremes. Zero or one.

But that is not how nature works. NOTHING is nature is black and white.

We manage health and wellness, like how so much of effective interventions in this world, iteratively. Masks protect well, but not perfectly. Social distancing protects well, but not perfectly. Being outside protects well, but not perfectly. Masks worn outside at a distance from other people protect better than any of the three do independently.

Likewise, vaccines are not all or none. Vaccines add one more layer of protection. Indeed, as I indicated above, an individual getting vaccinated portends some protection, and the entire community being vaccinated such that herd immunity is induced portends additional protection by reducing how much virus is circulating in that community. Until there is herd immunity and low circulating virus in the wild, being vaccinated will offer some protection, and masks, distancing, etc will add to that protection.

This adaptive approach is often referred to in science and medicine as "the swiss cheese model". One piece of swiss cheese has holes. Two stacked pieces together will cover some of the holes. Three pieces cover even more holes. If you want to close off all the holes, you need several pieces of cheese. To be clear, this is a metaphor and not a recommendation that stacking swiss cheese per se will protect you against COVID.

Or as DW said:

I would humbly submit that masks working is not a binary yes/no type thing.  Nor is a vaccine.  These are both things that can reduce risk (rather than the binary extremes of doing nothing or 100% protection).

 

Hence the possibility of vaccination + masks.

 

To my mind, every thing that we do to reduce risk, be it wearing masks or getting vaccinated, gets us closer to a more normal life, which has its own health benefits.

 

Genuine straight up question....what did he say that was a reference to racism?

Please look up "separate but equal." His posts are loaded with bullshit like that which only exists to fuck with people. (edit: and/or claim faux grievance. I can't tell, I don't care, I just want him to move on and stop bringing it up over and over and over and over and over and over etc etc)