redemption race yes or no (Read 106 times)

"ran too aggressively for the first 15 miles of the race"

I think almost certainly this was your critical mistake.  Now, go for it on the redemption run.  You may not regret it if you do, but you certainly will if you don't.

I would advise you to get a long-ish run in as soon as possible, like this weekend. 16+ miles.  I've found that the first long run after a marathon is a booger.  You need to clear that out of your system so the next marathon is not that booger.  Other than that, I would advise getting a solid, moderate number of miles, as best you can with recovery, this week and next, and try to re-taper a bit the final week.  I wouldn't overdo the taper that last week, though.  Just maybe drop those last couple of days down to 4 or 5 miles apiece. You're already fit.  You just need to recover while trying not to lose fitness.  Aerobic miles are good for that.  I don't think you should worry too much about workouts, but maybe doing some lighter, higher speed stuff, not overdoing it, could be good for putting some spring back in your step.  That's roughly what I would try were I in your shoes.

And I might add, you are more valiant than I.  When I have had complete blow ups, such as yours, I haven't had the guts to even try to pull it out of the trash heap with a redemption run. 

2. ran too aggressively for the first 15 miles of the race
 
overall avg. 8:39, 3:48 (over 20 minute positive split on my halves... I know, I know..)

 

Now while the first half was too aggressive (I also wasn't running my own race like a smarty, ran with my training buddy who is speedier than I until 15 miles), I was training for a 3:30/8min pace and did most of my long runs at 8:15-8:30 pace with several fast finish long runs. Also did tempos up to 10 miles at 7:40 pace.

 

My peak mileage was 45 miles x3 weeks during this training cycle (right before a 3 week taper). For my body and my life this is the most I can handle.

 

SO, there is a marathon close-ish to me in 3 weeks and I am wondering if I should do it. It is a small town race so there wouldn't be the massive crowd energy, and it may be hot (does start at 7am though). But it would be a chance at ending this 16 week training cycle on a high note. I'm actually not sure when I'll be able to get in such a solid training cycle again, might be a few years due to life circumstances.

 

Do I let it go and be at peace that one bad run didn't negate 16 weeks of killer workouts that I nailed?
Do I treat the flop as a 19 mile hard run and plan to run this race that may still go badly (weather, vibe), and take sacrifices of money and time, pending I feel okay over the next 3 weeks?

IF SO, how the heck do I proceed? Am I going to lose my shot at low 3:30's if I don't do speed workouts for 3 weeks? Do I run a lot, a little?!

 

I'm resigned to probably not breaking 3:30, but I still think 3:33-3:35 would be attainable if all went well (if I did it?!).

To clarify the timing, is the 3 weeks counting from the marathon or from this coming weekend?

Your training paces are not a good predictor of race times.  Just because your training runs were that fast doesn't mean they reflect the fitness to run sub-3:30.  All too many runners train at too fast a pace on their long runs.  If you had any tune up races leading up to the marathon, they would be a better indication of your current fitness and potential.

If we treat the first 17 miles as basically an all out race, which it seems to be considering the fade after that, the 3:33-3:35 goal you mention does seem reasonable. That's IF you get good race conditions and you pace it well. i.e. keep the early pace in the 8:05-8:10 range.

My legs feel worse than just a typical long run in training but not as wrecked as if I'd run hard the entire 26.2. I guess I can't predict how well/fast they will recover in the next little while. Since it is Tuesday the possible race is actually 2.5 weeks from now, 4/6.

To clarify, I ate a plain piece of toast for breakfast and nibbled a few saltines on the way there. In retrospect that was incredibly dumb but I was feeling SO full from the night before and the week prior and I usually would prefer to start a run on the hungry side than the stuffed side (I wasn't hungry, but just saying.)

My longest training runs looked like this, and are what led me to believe a sub 3:30 was feasible:

16 miles at 8:47 pace

20 miles at 8:14 pace

16 miles at 7:58 pace (incl. 8 fast finish miles)

19 miles at 8:30 pace

17 miles at 8:11 pace (incl. 6 fast finish miles)

18 miles at 8:31 pace

13 miles at 8:04 pace

taper

there were also mid-week tempo runs of:

7 miles at 7:47 pace

8 miles at 7:45 pace

10 miles at 7:38 pace

I'm not saying these were easy for me, I've never been the speediest or most naturally gifted, so yes maybe I did train at too fast a pace for my long runs, but I have never understood how I'm going to run 8 min pace for 26.2 miles by running 9 min pace during all my long runs.

Anyways I guess none of that data matters related to if I can recover or not. I don't want to do anything stupid but there is always that perfectionist overachiever inside me wanting more. IF I recover then maybe I just sign up week-of and go and run with the 3:35 pacer for a solid 15-16 miles (8:12 pace) and then if that is going okay I see what I can do.

The frustrating thing is that best case scenario, if I do that, I likely end up just 1.5-3 minutes over a BQ.

Slightly off topic for your question of whether to run a redemption race,

McMIllan Training paces for 3:30 (8:01 pace) Marathon

Long run -

I kind of understood that pace range as maybe run a few miles near goal pace on a couple of long runs, as long the overall effort is easy, and run most of the miles at the slower end or start at that slower end and fast finish near the faster end.  Although I am kind of dubious about RPE of 2-4, I was almost always completely exhausted after marathon long runs, which might mean I ran them too fast or my overall mileage at 40-42 MPW was low for a 18 mile long run.

Going in your favor is that you've got some long distance running events under your belt and a couple of marathons, and one with a time close to what you are targeting going forward. And you are young, which i would presume would mean you could recover quickly.

So it comes down to this, in my way of thinking: most everyone will tell you no, don't do it, it is too soon. If you are the kind of person that feels you can do what others would find crazy, then you just got a big green light.If it was me and i really wanted to do this, i wouldn't ask, and if i did and was told that it's crazy, i would take that and make it the fuel which would inspire my passion.

Best of luck to you. Whatever you do, I hope you come to appreciate what it is that makes the marathon unique and unlike any shorter events. I know that I have.