2012 Sub-3:00 Marathon Goal Thread (Read 6881 times)

Plug me in for Baltimore Marathon on 10/14/2012

 2:55:00 at Under Armor Baltimore Marathon today!

Yesterday was a confidence-booster for my marathon in two weeks time, with a 10K in 37:05, a PR by 30 seconds. So I think I can safely say I've got the speed, although my weekly mileage is severely lacking.

So, this leads me on to a general question, and I hope this is the right place to ask it. We have here on this thread loads of people who have put in the requisite training to achieve a sub-3 time, and yet a lot of the time, on the day, they don't achieve that target. So what, typically, goes wrong on the day? What would people say are the most common causes for not achieving the sub-3 hour target in a race when the training says you should? Obviously you can have a niggling injury, or have a picked up a cold or something, or it can be adverse conditions (much warmer than usual, say). But there are other things which people must do 'wrong' on the day, like go out too fast, or not hydrate or fuel properly, or whatever. It would be interesting to get a general picture of this - it might help other runners like myself avoid the more common 'mistakes'.

FWIW, in the marathon where I got my PR, I really should have done a lot better than I did (3:08), but I made the mistake of following a 3 hour pacer group instead of sticking to my plan. We ended up going through the water stations too fast for me to be able to take on fluids properly with the result that by mile 20 I was getting pretty dehydrated, and they also went too fast - I believe the pacer person missed the target by a couple of minutes having faded towards the end. No guarantee, of course, that I would have done any better if I HAD stuck to my plan, but I do feel that it was a big mistake to deviate from what I had worked out in advance.

 But there are other things which people must do 'wrong' on the day, like go out too fast, or not hydrate or fuel properly, or whatever. It would be interesting to get a general picture of this - it might help other runners like myself avoid the more common 'mistakes'.

 

FWIW, in the marathon where I got my PR, I really should have done a lot better than I did (3:08), but I made the mistake of following a 3 hour pacer group instead of sticking to my plan. We ended up going through the water stations too fast for me to be able to take on fluids properly with the result that by mile 20 I was getting pretty dehydrated, and they also went too fast - I believe the pacer person missed the target by a couple of minutes having faded towards the end. No guarantee, of course, that I would have done any better if I HAD stuck to my plan, but I do feel that it was a big mistake to deviate from what I had worked out in advance.

I can offer lots of excuses. (hope to be back in shape to make another run for sub 3 in the spring)

Going out to fast probably the biggie. Not adjusting to the conditions of the course or day.

Stick to your plan.

Keeps me motivated just reading about everyone else.

Yesterday was a confidence-booster for my marathon in two weeks time, with a 10K in 37:05, a PR by 30 seconds. So I think I can safely say I've got the speed, although my weekly mileage is severely lacking.

 

So, this leads me on to a general question, and I hope this is the right place to ask it. We have here on this thread loads of people who have put in the requisite training to achieve a sub-3 time, and yet a lot of the time, on the day, they don't achieve that target. So what, typically, goes wrong on the day? What would people say are the most common causes for not achieving the sub-3 hour target in a race when the training says you should? Obviously you can have a niggling injury, or have a picked up a cold or something, or it can be adverse conditions (much warmer than usual, say). But there are other things which people must do 'wrong' on the day, like go out too fast, or not hydrate or fuel properly, or whatever. It would be interesting to get a general picture of this - it might help other runners like myself avoid the more common 'mistakes'.

 

FWIW, in the marathon where I got my PR, I really should have done a lot better than I did (3:08), but I made the mistake of following a 3 hour pacer group instead of sticking to my plan. We ended up going through the water stations too fast for me to be able to take on fluids properly with the result that by mile 20 I was getting pretty dehydrated, and they also went too fast - I believe the pacer person missed the target by a couple of minutes having faded towards the end. No guarantee, of course, that I would have done any better if I HAD stuck to my plan, but I do feel that it was a big mistake to deviate from what I had worked out in advance.

You got it.  Discipline to stick to your plan and pacing.

 (I often start with a slightly slower mile, even if I've warmed up thoroughly beforehand). ... Don't expect to get a sub-3, but I'll give it a damned good try on the day!

I'm gonna call that a mistake, if you mean actual running to warm up before a marathon. Save the warmup for the first couple of miles; you need every ounce of muscle and liver glycogen for the marathon. The farthest I will run is to test my shoe-tying job.

I'm curious, when you ran 3:08 but started following the 3:00 pace group, what was your original goal / plan? If you didn't think you were in sub-3 shape, then yeah, that would be a big oops.

If sub-3 is your goal, rather than running your fastest marathon, I wouldn't even push it to 6:47-6:48. I'd keep it bang on 6:52, until at least halfway, maybe bust it open at 20 if you're feeling great.

Finally, not expecting to get a sub-3 may also be a mistake. When you take out conditions, pacing, and training as factors, what's left is the mental game. Confidence that you can do it is a huge benefit. Your 10K tune-up certainly has you in there. What has your weekly mileage been like? Long runs?

3. It may sound a ridiculous question, but is 6:52 pace always going to be easier than 6:47 pace? I ask, because in the last few weeks I've done a LOT more miles at 6:40-6:45 pace than I have at 6:50-6:55 pace and I'm wondering whether that counts for something in terms of running economy at that pace. It probably doesn't apply in this speed range, but it's my experience that slower isn't always easier. I reckon, for example, that I'd probably find it easiest overall to run a marathon in a time of around 3:30 - easier than running it in 4:00 or 4:30. I may be wrong, as I've never put it to the test. But there's a pace I settle into naturally on long runs which I think of as my 'run all day' pace (I don't delude myself that I actually could run all day at that pace). If I drop below that pace I feel I'm running less efficiently. 

That's an interesting question. I'm with you that I'd find running a 3:30 marathon easier than 4:00 or 4:30. But I would expect that if you are accustomed to 6:40-6:45, then running the first half at 6:52 will feel a bit relaxed. You should be able to tell by feel on race day, though. If it feels forced, like you are wasting energy, then get out of that groove into a better one.

 4. My weekly mileage has not averaged more than 30 for the last 4-5 months, hence my doubts. I've put in a decent number of long runs, the longest being 23 miles about 5 weeks ago, most being in the 16-19 range. I've done a few weeks of 40+ miles, and 3-4 weeks with just over 50. For my next marathon (London in April), I'll be adding another 20-25 miles a week. But I know I'm woefully short on the miles of this one, and I was hoping to compensate for that with overall fitness - I've been doing a bunch of long-ish tempo-ish runs, of 10-13 miles at pace midway between half marathon and marathon which have helped. If I'd done the mileage I'd be going in to it brimming with confidence, but that is, alas, not the case.

You can do it! Given the low mileage, everything else sounds good. (Though next time, maybe separate the MP runs and the tempo runs for more specific training benefit.)

Getting in the long runs is key. And 13 miles at MP is not an easy workout, let alone faster than MP. My bet is you're good to go.

Well that's it, you missed your chance, mister.