Sub 1:30 Half Marathon in 2019 (Read 137 times)

JMac11


    Hey, I'm still the thread leader with a ridiculous 50% variation! So proud of myself 

     

    some interesting numbers everyone. DJ, that is some crazy consistency on your end. I specifically went weekly because you're right: daily deviations are too high due to long runs and monthly is probably too low because the time period is longer.

     

    Steve - Forgot to address something: if you go back to my marathon race report, you'll see I dealt with stitches and cramps for 15+ miles of the race. I deal with stitches every single time I race, so it's something I've learned to mentally deal with it, but it's still annoying AF.

    5K: 17:51 (5/18)  |  10K: 36:21 (9/18)  |  HM: 1:20:39 (5/17)  |  FM: 2:46:17 (11/18) 

     

    Next Race: NYC Half (3/17/19)

    Goal Race: Boston (4/15/19)

    CommanderKeen


    Aspiring Hobby Jogger

      DJ - Awesome consistency!

       

      Including the weeks after my marathon in which I was sick and not running (or hardly running), I averaged 56.38 mi/wk, with a standard deviation of 17.91 miles. Discounting those sick weeks I averaged 58.89 mi/wk with a standard deviation of 16.18 miles. Not too bad, I suppose. I didn't have any injuries last year, so those down weeks were almost all either 1) planned rest weeks/taper, or 2) losing a couple days for sickness.
      I'm sensing a pattern here! Kiddos are bad for my running, what with them bringing all those germs back home from school. 

       

       

      Today's run was just a bit better than yesterdays, which of course I liked. Yesterday morning my glute/hamstring tie in area was tight and a bit sore, but I was able to put in some work on that with The Stick (Christmas present!) and an R8 (new HSA funds present!) that showed up yesterday. In just the short time I've had them I'd have to say those two pieces of hardware make a great combination given the differences between them.

       

      Chess stuff - Mark and I have a nice "race" type of situation going, in which we're both just trying to rush pawns at the other's king as quickly as possible. My game against the 1%er is proceeding largely to plan, though he wants to try opening a file towards my king. I don't think he'll have the time to do it, though. Such excitement!

      5k: 18:54 9/18 │ 10k: 38:56 4/18 │ HM: 1:28:01 4/18 │ M: 3:04:13 11/18

      Upcoming Race(s):

      Chisholm Trail Marathon 3/24

      OKC Memorial Marathon 4/28

      JMac11


        Keen - That's great consistency as well. What is an R8?  Google only showed me an Audi that costs 140K+, so I assume you didn't buy that out of your HSA...

        5K: 17:51 (5/18)  |  10K: 36:21 (9/18)  |  HM: 1:20:39 (5/17)  |  FM: 2:46:17 (11/18) 

         

        Next Race: NYC Half (3/17/19)

        Goal Race: Boston (4/15/19)

        CommanderKeen


        Aspiring Hobby Jogger

          JMAC - This thing. It's kind of like roller blades, a foam roller, some springs, and a vice were all mashed up in a test tube somewhere and this is what came of it.

          It's approved as a "medical device", which is why I was able to use the HSA funds on it.

          5k: 18:54 9/18 │ 10k: 38:56 4/18 │ HM: 1:28:01 4/18 │ M: 3:04:13 11/18

          Upcoming Race(s):

          Chisholm Trail Marathon 3/24

          OKC Memorial Marathon 4/28

          JamesD


          JamesD

            I expect I'll win or be near the top of the variation contest, but only because of my injury - I averaged 22.8 miles/week with a standard deviation of 15.6, for 68%.  That accomplishment resulted from three months' worth of zeroes and ones and threes along with 18 weeks between 35 and 40.  Once I built my base back up near the end of the year, I had a ten-week stretch in which I averaged 37.8 mpw with a standard deviation of 2.3.  Those numbers aren't sustainable for a full year (the stretch ended when I got sick around Christmastime), but I'd like to be at least in their neighborhood this year..

            Post-1987 PRs:  5K 19:12 (Apr '17); 10K 40:43 (2016); Half 1:31:53 (Nov '17)

            2019 Goals: NO INJURIES, 30+ mpw, Half<1:30, 10K<40, 5K<19

            watsonc123


              This is in kms tell me what it means please 

               

               

              Population Standard Deviation, σ      22.947477575346

              Variance (Population Standard), σ2  526.58672707101

              Total Numbers, N          52

              Sum:      2904.1

              Mean (Average):             55.848076923077

              Standard Error of the Mean (SEx̄):     3.2132895827436`

              Sample Standard Deviation, s               23.171360706993

              Variance (Sample Standard), s2           536.91195701357

              Population Standard Deviation, σ      22.947477575346

              Variance (Population Standard), σ2  526.58672707101

              Total Numbers, N          52

              Sum:      2904.1

              Mean (Average):             55.848076923077

              Standard Error of the Mean (SEx̄):     3.2132895827436`

               

              Average 55.8, standard deviation 22.9.

               

              For standard deviation it is the population - as you included all your weeks.  In a sample situation (e.g. an opinion poll) use the sample standard deviation.

               

              I cannot remember what the standard error of the mean is.

              PRs: 5km 18:43, half 1:26:16, full 3:09:28

               

              40+ PRs: 5km 20:34, half 1:29:39

               

              2019 aims: Unlike 2017 & 2018, be consistent.  So get 40+ weeks of 40+ miles incl. two quality sessions (2 weeks achieved so far).

              brentnet


                My low week for the year was 1.2 miles (sick all week), my highest was 68.3 miles and my average was 40.4 miles per week.

                 

                DJ - I'm going to agree with you Westbrook just doesn't look right. When he and Durant were young (and bad), I used to go to a lot of MN/OKC games because we could get dirt cheap seats in the like the third row. I used to think he reminded me of a Marvel superhero. Kind of the comic book muscles plus that athleticism. I do worry that when it goes for him, it might go kind of quick (kind of like Dwyane Wade)

                 

                JMac - You running Boston this year? Have you ever run it before? Re: video games. I've done it for like 5-6 years now. Since having kids, I don't just sit down and play a video game. But I kind of figure out that I could on a treadmill. I don't play Fortnite particularly well (I've never won a solo game), but it's still fun and makes the time fly by. It actually helps me run slower, too. Often, I get bored on the TM and I wind up speeding up and speeding up!

                 

                SteveChCh - I've found as I've gotten older, the day after a fast run is the struggle bus.

                 

                PK - Yeah, my 8 year old daughter and my wife both give me the stink eye for playing Fortnite. My daughter says "Dad, kids in my grade play it" which is really impressive to my wife.

                 

                Flavio - So I sound like Joel Kinnaman? I had no idea who that even was. I look a lot like former Man City goalkeeper Joe Hart. I feel like I should be a bigger deal than I am! 

                 

                MeA few solid days for me. I ran 10 miles on Monday night as I will likely do for the next two months. My wife watches the Bachelor and I get my run in without having to wake up at 5 AM. Win-win! Yesterday and today, I doubled. 7 miles yesterday morning and 6x600 during lunch. 8 miles this morning and a short run at lunch today, as well.

                dj_dubb


                   

                  I cannot remember what the standard error of the mean is.

                   

                  I take it as just a way to determine how accurate your standard deviation calculation is. It's the sample standard deviation divided by the sqrt of number of samples (52 in our case). The more samples taken, the lower the standard error would be. For example - if you were to only sample half a year of 26 weeks, your standard error would be higher.

                   

                  Yeah, piwi is right - we're nerds...

                  flavio1980


                    wait wait wait, is this the Math forum?

                     

                    Mine was 49km average and 20 standard deviation, that's what the google sheet formula said.

                    PRs: 1500m 4:57 5K 18:05 10K 38:12 HM 1h24 Full 3h15

                      You guys are confirming the stereotype of runners been nerds 

                       

                      Watson you need to speak in English to me. I get the general idea.

                       

                      DJ we need a win today to get back on track.

                      50+ PBs5k 18:29 Tauranga Parkrun May18   

                      10k 40:16 June 18

                      " I have a plan to make my legs longer by wearing shorter shorts "      

                       

                      JMac11


                        Love the nerds coming out!  Looks like most people were more consistent than I expected. Granted, I had a feeling I would take the cake (besides James) due to my first part of the year being a whole lot of 0s, and then ramping up to 70 MPW for the marathon.

                         

                        Brent - Never ran it before. I'm just more surprised you can do that while you're bouncing around. I know that I would get so motion sick doing that, and I'm pretty sure my local gym would not enjoy having to clean vomit off their treadmill. Not to mention the fact that it would hit the belt and go flying off the back to the person running behind me 

                        5K: 17:51 (5/18)  |  10K: 36:21 (9/18)  |  HM: 1:20:39 (5/17)  |  FM: 2:46:17 (11/18) 

                         

                        Next Race: NYC Half (3/17/19)

                        Goal Race: Boston (4/15/19)

                        Marky_Mark_17


                           

                          I take it as just a way to determine how accurate your standard deviation calculation is. It's the sample standard deviation divided by the sqrt of number of samples (52 in our case). The more samples taken, the lower the standard error would be. For example - if you were to only sample half a year of 26 weeks, your standard error would be higher.

                           

                          Yeah, piwi is right - we're nerds...

                           

                          Yeah I use it the same way.

                           

                          SUPER NERD ALERT: Sometimes when we're valuing certain option assets, we'll use a simulation model.  Basically we'll just keep running simulations until the sample size is large enough that the standard error is low enough to have confidence in the results.

                           

                          Brent - I'm super impressed you can game while running on the TM.  I have a PS4 but it hardly gets touched these days.  Maybe one of the few things that could get me back on the dreadmill!

                          5000m: 16:03 (Dec-18) | 5km: 16:24 (Nov-18) | 10km: 34:08 (Sep-18) HM: 1:15:40 (Sep-18) | FM: 2:57:36 (Oct-17)

                          Last race: Bays Night of 5's 5000m, 21 Dec, 16:03

                          Up next: Maraetai Beach Half Marathon, 17 Mar

                          "CONSISTENCY IS KING"

                          SteveChCh


                          Hot Weather Complainer

                            Mark, back in my last year at uni I wrote a Black-Scholes simulation model for a project...great memories!  That one got me some ladies...

                            PB:  Christchurch 2016 1:29.25

                            Recent Races:  Queenstown 2017, Auckland Waterfront Half-Marathon 2018, South Island Half-Marathon 2018

                            Upcoming Goals:  Auckland Waterfront Half-Marathon April 14, 2019

                            JMac11


                              Mark, back in my last year at uni I wrote a Black-Scholes simulation model for a project...great memories!  That one got me some ladies...

                               

                              This is just bait for Piwi, right?

                              5K: 17:51 (5/18)  |  10K: 36:21 (9/18)  |  HM: 1:20:39 (5/17)  |  FM: 2:46:17 (11/18) 

                               

                              Next Race: NYC Half (3/17/19)

                              Goal Race: Boston (4/15/19)

                              matthewfschwartz


                                DJ- That's awesome consistency, looking to see what you have in store for 2019! Do you have strava?

                                 

                                Piwi- You're an OKC Thunder fan? I was just in OKC for a few days last week!

                                 

                                Keen- Did I hear chess?? I haven't played an awhile, but I played a decent amount last year

                                 

                                Standard Deviation: Average of 33.8 miles per week in 2018, standard deviation of 13.4 miles. So I guess my standard deviation is 39.6% of my average mileage. That average mileage is actually staggeringly low, considering when I'm healthy I could be putting up a comfortable 50 miles per week. Makes me realize how great of an impact injuries have, especially if we are injured multiple times per year (as I was in 2018).

                                PR's: 800 - 2:01.9, 1600 - 4:34.4, 3 mile - 16:00, Full Marathon - 2:54:49

                                Goals: Break 1:20 HM, Break 2:45 FM, Break 34:00 10k, Break 16:00 5k

                                Upcoming Races: Rock 'n' Roll Arizona Half Marathon (1/20/19), Boston Marathon (4/15/19)

                                Strava link