>Racing>Marathon pace vs weather
This is from FindMyMarathon.com.
Martian was in April, Grand Rapids in October, Ann Arbor coming up this Sunday.
Does it seem reasonable that this difference, based mainly on weather, would be this large? Ann Arbor in June is not exactly Miami in August. (They assume a mean temp of 66F.) I was pretty surprised (and terrified) to see this, but maybe I shouldn't be (surprised anyway; I can still be terrified).
What are people's experiences with marathon pace variation with temperature (and of course I realize humidity/dewpoint is a major factor), assuming the same level of fitness?
Also this is the elevation profile (yes they could've done a better job with the y-axis scale).
I mostly run pretty flat. I've never really looked at elevation profiles, so no idea how bad this is, but I'm guessing hillier than I'm used to.
Should I be concerned?
I could be in trouble here. I am pretty new at this, and picked a race based on the calendar, without looking at the race itself.
Thanks for any comments/advice!
The elevation really doesn't look bad, with only three real hills. The one at mile 16 will be the hardest, but you have time to recover. What is the supposed elevation gain? (FWIW: mapmyrun understates elevation significantly. runningahead maps include the little ups and downs. My HM in September shows a mapmyrun elev. gain of 262', while runningahead gives it over 750'.)
Are you looking at the difference in total time? That could be the elevation coupled with the weather. As to weather, I know my times in the same race have varied as much as 30 minutes in a 40 degree difference so it looks possible but I cannot say since to me 66F is cold, ha.
I once checked a very fast downhill marathon vs the marathon I have my current PR at. The difference was 48 minutes (meaning I would be very fast in that downhill marathon). So, yes, terrain and weather could be a major difference.
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This would say about 10 minutes for the temperature. The hills, no big deal. Could keep you from going out to fast.
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I checked finish times for a few years at the New Jersey Marathon which is completely flat. In 2013 when the starting time temperature was 50, the fastest time was 2:28 and the average time was 4:16. In contrast, in 2010 when the temperature was 75, the winning time was 2:37 and the average time was 4:48.
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The weather adjustment of 28 minutes - 11.4% - seems too high for only 66*
IMO that would be the adjustment for 85* vs 55*.
I don't recall all the hills on Martian, but nothing on Hines Dr would be very tough. (ETA: Kinda doubt the 833' up+down on their map)
The two major AA hills are substantial - from the river up Huron Parkway to Plymouth, and from the river to the Observatory.
Thanks for everyone's comments.
I the end I decided to take Gville Kevin's advice (I believe courtesy of Crash Davis) and not overthink it. I started with the 4:00 pace group. I did not really notice the earlier hills much, I guess since they were early enough. The steep one at 16 hit me pretty hard as I was already starting to fatigue a bit, and I never really recovered. The rest of the race was pretty tough for me after that. Finished at 4:06 (race report posted in B&B). My biggest soreness today is my quads, which may make sense from more hilliness than I am accustomed to.
Weather was not too bad, could've been much worse this time of year, although certainly not optimum for marathoning.
Anyway I am signed up for Detroit in the fall, so I guess will see how things work out there.