out of all the things that go into a race, especially a marathon or half, what do you think has the greatest impact on it being a "fast" race where you have a better than average chance at a PR vs a "slow" race where you should expect to take longer to finish?  Any articles or studies you can remember that talk about the various factors like altitude, temperature, event size (if it is a really big event you might get stuck behind people or weaving), crowd support/entertainment on course?

For me,

I think crowd support can have a huge affect but for those that run with headphones does that affect you as much?

I like gentle rolling hills but am not sure where the line is drawn and it goes from a nicely broken up run to too hilly.

My PR's have come when it has been cool out but not windy.

what is most important to you and what doesn't matter?

Of course, where I'm at physically is #1..by a long way. Some days "it" is there, other's just a fast training run is all that's in the cards.

Then...Mental strength and focus.

From there, course is next in terms of hills, footing, etc.

Then weather...temp & wind, rain, snow.

...spectators are about #43 in the list.

Hills, temp, wind, competition.  Roughly in that order, you can re-order them if any one of them is especially extreme.  Anything else is in your head.  My HM and marathon PRs had fewer than half a dozen spectators on the entire course.

milktruck

an amazing likeness

...spectators are about #43 in the list.

Spectators? They do not exist on trails.

I'll guess my list (admittedly cheating and starting with spaniel's)

• terrain
• wind & temperature
• competition
• various minor stuff I can't be bothered to list

Breaking down terrain:

1. hills
2. ground surface (following is my guess from fast to slow)
   1. rubber track
   2. paved
   3. dirt road
   4. forest trail
   5. sand
   6. mud or significant snow
   7. water (more than a foot deep and this is a HUGE factor)

All of the above are good points.

What I have learned recently is that it also has so much to do with confidence.

You have to really believe you're trained well enough to hit your goal, you can't just will it.

If you're not 100% confident, you will make excuses and fail.

Carbonation, burping, and volume are huge issues.  At least in the beer mile.

Remembering to turn at the turns in the later quarters is also important

 

For me,

I think crowd support can have a huge affect but for those that run with headphones does that affect you as much?

I like gentle rolling hills but am not sure where the line is drawn and it goes from a nicely broken up run to too hilly.

My PR's have come when it has been cool out but not windy.

what is most important to you and what doesn't matter?

I often race with headphones but not always; crowd support doesn't make much difference to me in terms of my performance. In general, the most significant factors seem to be training (duh), temperature (I do go much faster in cooler weather), and competition. In the half mile (of a 5k) or mile (10K-HM), I focus on how many female runners I can pass (this determines my point count in the state Grand Prix competition). If someone tries to pass me, I really speed up!

That said, courses with lots of turns and/or with hills tend to be a bit slower.