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10K Prediction (Read 61 times)

    Hello all.  I've got a 10K next week and I'm wondering what I'm capable of doing.   This morning's workout was:

     

    8x1000 (with 1 minute walking rests).  Averaged 6:00 pace after running the last 400m rep very hard.  Workout did not get tough until the 7th rep.

     

    Link to workout  

    50 miles a week for the past 5 weeks with a few 40-50 weeks prior to that.   Any guess?  Thanks.

    Mile (4:57), 5K (17:32), 8K (29:56), 10K (38:21)

    paul2432


      If the course is flat and it isn't hot, then sub-38 seems possible.  Maybe 37:45.  This assumes you run a smart race.

       

      When did you run the 17:32 5K?  Can you run that now?  If the 5K was recent, then I could see you going closer to 37:00, maybe even under.

       

      Obviously lots of guess work here.  Partly will depend on the competition in the race was well.  If you have other folks around the same pace pushing hard to the end, that should help with a faster time.

       

      Let us know how it goes.

        Hi - the 17:32 was way back in 2012.  As was the 4:57 mile.  I've been doing a lot of my speed work on a treadmill up until today when I did this 8x1000 on blacktop and was hitting 6-flat pace, which surprised me a bit.   Looks like I'm limiting my progress by using treadmills and it's not giving me an accurate read on what type of fitness I'm in.

         

        I did a 4 mile continuous tempo at 6:22 pace back in March off a 40mpw average...but it looks like I improved after upping miles to 50+ per week.

        Mile (4:57), 5K (17:32), 8K (29:56), 10K (38:21)

          You are clearly fit. The only two things that may prevent you from sub 38 is the treadmill running and weather conditions including wind and heat and/or humidity that you do not not have any adaptation too. Also, no adaptation to the hard surface. A 5K race or a time trial in last month would have provided valuable info. However, I say go out at 6 min pace.

          Those who try, fail! Those who do what it takes to succeed, succeed!!

            You are clearly fit. The only two things that may prevent you from sub 38 is the treadmill running and weather conditions including wind and heat and/or humidity that you do not not have any adaptation too. Also, no adaptation to the hard surface. A 5K race or a time trial in last month would have provided valuable info. However, I say go out at 6 min pace.

             

            Thanks Tchuck -  I was thinking the same thing.  A majority of my runs have been outside and I've done some speed work outside as well.  For the race, ideally 6:05 splits for the first 4 miles and just going all out for the final 2.   I've gotten into the bad habit of going through the first mile at 5:40 at just about every race and I'm going to have to learn how to pull back a bit. 

            Mile (4:57), 5K (17:32), 8K (29:56), 10K (38:21)

              Bernie, 5:40 would be aggressive. As you know, even splits would be ideal assuming weather is normal. Worst case your first mile is 6:10 or 6:15.....you can easily make that up the last 2 miles. Good luck....I think you will do great since you do have some outside running n.

              Those who try, fail! Those who do what it takes to succeed, succeed!!