2012 Sub-3:00 Marathon Goal Thread (Read 6870 times)

DoppleBock


    Although it is a bit of a guess - I run enough miles that stamina is never the issue.  I am basing the 3:10 on the 3:15:35 I ran in Houston weighing 2:40 pounds.  I am now in the low 2:30s and have been putting in some nice mileage weeks.  I have not run any real speed work yet. 

     

    But I do believe if I went and ran a marathon next weekend - I would be real near 3:10.  The task is a bit daunting to lose a minimum of 15 more pounds and round out into sub 3 shape by April 21st. 

     

    My plan is to beat some mileage back into the legs until end of February and then start adding 2 easy to moderate speed workouts per week for 6 weeks.  Should do the trick - But its a long journey from today.

     

    Along the way - I want to fit in 4 runs of > 30 miles and 1 run of > 40 miles - As my real passion will always be ultras.

     

     

    Dopple Bock, I'm impressed that you can say what kind of marathon time you're in shape for at the moment. I can do that fairly accurately with 5Ks, but for anything longer it's a total crapshoot for me.

    http://a-big-horse.blogspot.com/ 

    2013 Goals ~ Mar < 3:00, 5M < 29, 10k < 35  

     


    Spring- wishful thinking

      I am returning to the course I got my first sub 3 at->Milwaukee Lakefront marathon.  I am pretty excited as I love the course layout and small rolling hills.  I personally think this is a faster course than Chicago because too flat of a course seems to really beat up my legs early in the race.

       

      As of now, I'm setting a goal of <2:53 (shape I was in last fall), but if all goes well with training this year I may revise this to <2:50.

      spinach


        I am running a half tomorrow to try to see what type of shape I am in.  I think my training has been going well and my leg feels like it is finally over the problems that lasted all of last year.  I will use tomorrow's race as a diagnostic half and hope for the best.  My concern right now is that racing in winter is always a crap shoot.

           

          Dopple Bock, I'm impressed that you can say what kind of marathon time you're in shape for at the moment. I can do that fairly accurately with 5Ks, but for anything longer it's a total crapshoot for me.

           

          that comes from very careful analysis of his Garmin GPS data Roll eyes


          I'm back!

            That seems reasonable to me - Although I can tell just by how speed workouts are going.  If I can do 4x 2 mile @ 6:30 pace - I can break 3.  

             

            Huh. I think I need a tad more speed for that. What kind of recoveries are you talking about? I'm at 6:30 pace for my LT workouts, up to 5M, 6 & 7 coming up soon. But I think I need to push it to 6:20 - 6:25 -- I am targeting 2:55 at Boston.

             

            That may be a bit more than I can manage, but I think I am on track to be faster than last year's 2:58:41. Tune-up half in a couple of weeks should be a good indicator. I am going to have to target about 6:30 pace for that -- that's gonna hurt.

             

            6:40 pace at Boston (= 2:55) would be awesome, but I may be looking at more like 6:45.

            DoppleBock


              1/2 mile recoveries - But because of my high mileage I am typically 15-20 seconds between my 4x2 miles and marathon pace.  I consider 4x2 miles to be 1/2 marathon pace.  I sometimes do 5x2 miles.  But I have not run anything shorted than a marathon in a long time - So I have no low end speed.

               

              I would be entertaining to run a 5k-10k-10mile and 1/2M in succesive weeks - They might be all at the same pace? 

               

              Huh. I think I need a tad more speed for that. What kind of recoveries are you talking about? I'm at 6:30 pace for my LT workouts, up to 5M, 6 & 7 coming up soon. But I think I need to push it to 6:20 - 6:25 -- I am targeting 2:55 at Boston.

               

              http://a-big-horse.blogspot.com/ 

              2013 Goals ~ Mar < 3:00, 5M < 29, 10k < 35  

               


              el Jeffe

                Ok I'll try again. Sub 3 at the Vancouver Marathon on May 6. I tried the sub 3 challenge here in 2010, but I haven't run a marathon since then. My running has been sporadic until just this month when I started again. Fitness is bad (zero), but I think I can pull it together. Worth a shot. Smile

                  Any one want to play guess the Marathon Time?

                   

                  PR'ed on Saturday with a 1:19:52 half,  tacked on a few more to get in 18,  2 easy days of 8 then did my last 20 miler today (most was on the course).  Legs felt fresh and happy. 

                   

                  McMillian and all of the other running calculators woefully under predict my longer distances.     McMillian was over by 2:20 on the half.

                   

                  This is the marathon's elevation profile:

                   

                   

                   

                  Spaniel went with a  2:45 - 2:48 prediction in another thread. 

                   

                  Thoughts?

                  DoppleBock


                    Personally I would just relax and let it roll between 6:15-6:25.  If you are < 6:15 and it was not downhill - back off a bit.  If you run > 6:25 and not an uphill you should evaluate how you feel and try to pick it up a bit ~ so @ 6:20 = 2:45-2:46

                    http://a-big-horse.blogspot.com/ 

                    2013 Goals ~ Mar < 3:00, 5M < 29, 10k < 35  

                     


                    Blue Moon Hater

                      I guess I'm in the game again this year.

                       

                      Last year, I was undertrained for my first attempt at the marathon, but I know what I need to do this year, and I think I'm already off to a good start.

                       

                      I'm not really sure what kind of time.  Let's just see if I can get under 2:40.

                       

                      9/23/12--Fox Cities Marathon   <2:40

                      There was a point in my life when I ran. Now, I just run.

                       

                      Well, fuckers

                      He still stands

                       

                      The Diary of a Once-ran.

                        I've decided, I'm in. I'm putting my goal at <3:00 for the Ottawa Marathon 27 May 2012.

                         

                         

                         

                        Any one want to play guess the Marathon Time?

                         

                        PR'ed on Saturday with a 1:19:52 half,  tacked on a few more to get in 18,  2 easy days of 8 then did my last 20 miler today (most was on the course).  Legs felt fresh and happy. 

                         

                        McMillian and all of the other running calculators woefully under predict my longer distances.     McMillian was over by 2:20 on the half.

                        Spaniel went with a  2:45 - 2:48 prediction in another thread. 

                         

                        Thoughts?

                         I'm not sure 2:20 is woefully over. Are you better trained now than you were for the PB's you used? My PB's by calculator are pretty consistent 800m-3000m, then gradually dip to a low in the 10K, and I've got a really good half.

                         

                         

                        I'm not sure I want to play predictor, but I'm interested in what people say, we've got pretty similar race times, although you're hitting more mileage right now than I ever have, and I probably won't get quite to where you are by my race.

                         

                        I've got you by 44 seconds in the half, you've got a better 10K by a little over a minute (unless you count splits from a ½Wink, and I've got you by 30 seconds for a 5K.

                         

                        If I were to guess, I'd say 2:52. I think I can do 2:55 in May, and think you can do a hair better. Wink

                        2013 Goal: Make 3:00:16 go away - FAIL.

                        2014 Goal: Make 3:00:16 go away.


                        Spring- wishful thinking

                          Any one want to play guess the Marathon Time?

                           

                          PR'ed on Saturday with a 1:19:52 half,  tacked on a few more to get in 18,  2 easy days of 8 then did my last 20 miler today (most was on the course).  Legs felt fresh and happy. 

                           

                          McMillian and all of the other running calculators woefully under predict my longer distances.     McMillian was over by 2:20 on the half.

                           

                          Spaniel went with a  2:45 - 2:48 prediction in another thread. 

                           

                          Thoughts?

                           I just plugged your half into McMillan and it gave me a 2:48, which sounds about right but part of this may depend how recent your PRs are and how close to max capacity you ran that race. 

                           

                          Like DB said, you may just need to play this by feel, but on average running a full 15-20 seconds per mile slower than your half pace is pretty good.  So with a 6:06 per mile half, somewhere between a 6:21 and 6:26 per mile full. 

                            Personally I would just relax and let it roll between 6:15-6:25.  If you are < 6:15 and it was not downhill - back off a bit.  If you run > 6:25 and not an uphill you should evaluate how you feel and try to pick it up a bit ~ so @ 6:20 = 2:45-2:46

                             

                            Sounds like a plan I can follow. The course is one that I'm crazy familiar with and it'll give back to time from the uphills on the downhills. It's just a matter of the legs survivng. Hopefully all of the miles will keep them alive during the race.


                            @viich. 5k , 10k and half have all been during the current training cycle and 3 weeks inbetween each race. The 10k time and the 5k time both estimate half times I was running 2.5 years ago.


                            I can already tell that this taper is going to be an utter tweak-fest.....

                              I like Dopplebock's advice. I would say that a 2:48 is more likely than a 2:45, but feel free to prove me wrong!

                              DoppleBock


                                PS - My PR is a sluggish 2:45:58 ~ Just get under that to help motivate me.  I had been in 2:43-2:44 shape 3 different times - 2 races ended up pretty bad weather and my PR race - I started too fast, then pushed a 12+ MPW for miles 6-11 by myself ~ it ended up a serious of crappy things - Until I got pissed off and finished with a 38:53 final 10k to sneak under 2:46.

                                 

                                What I really do not understand ~ Back then I was doing hard speed work 2-3x a week and training 100-110 MPW on avg during marathon build up.  I could crank out a 2:10 20 miler almost at will ~ but I could never convert it to a good race.  In 2009 I was training for a 24 hour race - Did very inconsistent speed wotk - Lots of miles and really long runs and I could jog (What felt like easy pace) a marathon in 2:48

                                 

                                I just hope to figure it out before its time for the glue factory.

                                 

                                 

                                 

                                Sounds like a plan I can follow. The course is one that I'm crazy familiar with and it'll give back to time from the uphills on the downhills. It's just a matter of the legs survivng. Hopefully all of the miles will keep them alive during the race.


                                @viich. 5k , 10k and half have all been during the current training cycle and 3 weeks inbetween each race. The 10k time and the 5k time both estimate half times I was running 2.5 years ago.


                                I can already tell that this taper is going to be an utter tweak-fest.....

                                http://a-big-horse.blogspot.com/ 

                                2013 Goals ~ Mar < 3:00, 5M < 29, 10k < 35