The good the bad and the stupid- advice needed. (Read 567 times)

The good: With only two weeks out my running group ran a 20 mile run with 15 miles at race pace. I thought that was way too much this close to the race. The good news is that I was willing to do less miles and not go with the crowd. Luckily we did this on the bike path so it was easy to turn around. The bad: I decided to do 15 miles. The first 3 miles at 8 minute pace. It was cold and I just wanted to get some warmup miles in. The problem is that 8 minute pace is supposed to be my race pace. So I decided to see if I could run a 7:42 pace for the last 12 miles. This is what I need for Boston. Well it ended up averaging 7:36 pace. This is good and bad. It is good becaused I loved running it that fast. The bad part is that I don't know what pace I should run now. I felt I could run it at least another 5 miles at that pace. My legs were getting tired but I could have kept going for a while longer. The stupid : I am way to close to the race to do this and I ran a lot of miles in that last week at 8 minute pace or close to this with a lot of hills.. Any thoughts on what I should attempt at Indy. I'm really confused. I am seriously thinking about trying 7:42 pace if the temperatures on race day are as cold or colder. The problem is also that it was a flat path and in the shade. I need some good advice. If I fail I have another marathon two weeks later that I could attempt to run as well. Would you go for it or wait for the next marathon in the spring. This will be my 5th marathon.

That was really too close to your race to do that...but I think you've figured that out! Indy will not be a flat bike path, but you WILL be racing. So it's a wash. I tend to say go big or go home, it's not an unreasonable jump. But you need to be willing to take what will happen if you fail, that's something you will have to make the call on.

Just bumping this back to the top. Get used to it until some of you genius's give me some good advice.

This may not show up right but the problem is that the 2nd half is harder then the first half. This is my current plan. Which of course is liable to change. It is amazing that everytime I run a marathon i struggle at which pace to run it at. I've tried being conservative at Columbus last year and it was my worst race ever. Indy Marathon Pace Chart Estimated Marathon Time: 3:20:59 ...............Elev...Elev.....Race....Weight.... Mile...Elev....Chg....Fact.....Adj.....Factor...Mile....Pace.......Splits 00.....850......0.....0.00....-0.01.....0.99.....01.....07:36.....0:07:36 01.....850......0.....0.00....-0.01.....0.99.....02.....07:36.....0:15:11 02.....845.....-5....-0.01....-0.01.....0.98.....03.....07:31.....0:22:43 03.....825.....-20...-0.02....-0.01.....0.97.....04.....07:27.....0:30:09 04.....845.....20.....0.02....-0.01.....1.01.....05.....07:45.....0:37:54 05.....850.....5......0.00....-0.01.....0.99.....06.....07:36.....0:45:30 06.....845.....-5.....0.00....-0.01.....0.99.....07.....07:36.....0:53:06 07.....845.....0......0.00....-0.01.....0.99.....08.....07:36.....1:00:41 08.....845.....0......0.00....-0.01.....0.99.....09.....07:36.....1:08:17 09.....840.....-5.....0.00....-0.01.....0.99.....10.....07:36.....1:15:53 10.....765.....-75...-0.08....-0.01.....0.92.....11.....07:01.....1:22:54 11.....835.....70.....0.07....-0.01.....1.06.....12.....08:08.....1:31:02 12.....845.....10.....0.01....-0.01.....1.00.....13.....07:40.....1:38:42 13.....820.....-25...-0.03....-0.01.....0.97.....14.....07:24.....1:46:07 14.....770.....-50...-0.05.....0.00.....0.95.....15.....07:17.....1:53:24 15.....768.....-2.....0.00.....0.00.....1.00.....16.....07:40.....2:01:04 16.....766.....-2.....0.00.....0.00.....1.00.....17.....07:40.....2:08:45 17.....764.....-2.....0.00.....0.01.....1.01.....18.....07:45.....2:16:30 18.....762.....-2.....0.00.....0.01.....1.01.....19.....07:45.....2:24:15 19.....761.....-1.....0.00.....0.01.....1.01.....20.....07:45.....2:32:00 20.....762.....1......0.00.....0.01.....1.01.....21.....07:45.....2:39:44 21.....764.....2......0.00.....0.02.....1.02.....22.....07:50.....2:47:34 22.....766.....2......0.00.....0.03.....1.03.....23.....07:54.....2:55:28 23.....768.....2......0.00.....0.03.....1.03.....24.....07:54.....3:03:22 24.....770.....2......0.00.....0.02.....1.02.....25.....07:50.....3:11:12 25.....820.....50.....0.05.....0.00.....1.05.....26.....08:03.....3:19:15 26.....850.....30.....0.03.....0.00.....1.03.....0.2....07:54.....3:20:59

You asked for it. But don't read this post before your marathon. I would be much more confident about your ability to hold the pace of your 15 mile run if that run had come on tired legs during a bout of sustained and consistent training. Your log indicates to me that your training has been fairly erratic, so your race will be a crapshoot. It's clear that you are a talented runner, but if you want consistent success in the marathon, you've got to get out the door more consistently. I don't understand the idea that being conservative was what led to "your worst race ever." To me, that's an indication that you overestimated your fitness at Columbus, if you still blew up when running a conservative pace. You've got the abiilty to run decent paces, but the question of the marathon is not whether you can run fast, but whether you can sustain pace for the whole distance. Your log does not answer this question for me. Now go out there and prove me wrong.