2019 Sub 3 hour marathon thread (Read 621 times)

JMac11


Benevolent Leader

    Fin: I edited my note to say average conditions, just because obviously if it's 70 degrees out this all goes out the window.

     

    I definitely want to get the feedback from others. 2:39 is a 6:05 pace. I can't see how you would ever need to go faster than 5:55. On a flat course, your first mile should be around 6:15, 6:20, so even with the huge downhill, 5:50 cannot be correct for that first mile. I would also say for miles 2-4, when you're normally settling right into goal pace, I don't think the course warrants faster than 5:55.

     

    Regarding this weekend, it's a bit hard because you aren't perfectly tapered, but I would say you need to get in the low 57s to be looking at 2:40.

    5K: 16:51 (8/19)  |  10K: 34:49 (10/19)  |  HM: 1:16:05 (10/19)  |  FM: 2:44:43 (4/19) 

     

    Next Race: California International Marathon (12/8/19)

      Fin: I edited my note to say average conditions, just because obviously if it's 70 degrees out this all goes out the window.

       

      I definitely want to get the feedback from others. 2:39 is a 6:05 pace. I can't see how you would ever need to go faster than 5:55. On a flat course, your first mile should be around 6:15, 6:20, so even with the huge downhill, 5:50 cannot be correct for that first mile. I would also say for miles 2-4, when you're normally settling right into goal pace, I don't think the course warrants faster than 5:55.

       

      Regarding this weekend, it's a bit hard because you aren't perfectly tapered, but I would say you need to get in the low 57s to be looking at 2:40.

       

      I think Madison can give some good feedback on this. I purged most of the memories of the roasting hot one time I ran that course/race from my mind as a self defense mechanism. 

      5K: 17:55 (2017)    HM: 1:23:57 (2016)    FM: 2:52:16 (2018)

      Up next: Athens OH Marathon (April 19)

      M_M_C


        For what it’s worth, Accuweather says high of 55 and cloudy for Hopkinton April 15

        3K: 8:29.12 (2017)     5K: 14:56.59 (2016)     8K: 25:27 (2016)     15K: 54:46.2 (2019)     FM: 2:58:48 (2019)

        jayluf


          That would be PERFECT. Just hope we get a nice tailwind with it this year!

           

          For what it’s worth, Accuweather says high of 55 and cloudy for Hopkinton April 15

          JMac11


          Benevolent Leader

            Yeah, that forecast is worth absolutely nothing. Last year's forecast looked pleasant 10 days out.

            5K: 16:51 (8/19)  |  10K: 34:49 (10/19)  |  HM: 1:16:05 (10/19)  |  FM: 2:44:43 (4/19) 

             

            Next Race: California International Marathon (12/8/19)

            weatherboy80


              Yup, that accuweather forecast is likely complete garbage. Almost a disservice to put out something like that in my humble opinion.

               

              Regarding an exact number or pace I know what I have been hitting on some of my workouts which indicates something right around 2:40 (or a few notches lower on a really good day), but I also realize those were also on pancake flat surfaces.  I have been doing quite a bit of hill work with many of my other runs though recently which should help a bit.  Also remember with Boston when things go south they can go south in a hurry!

               

              I'm sort of like JMac in that I'll really only adjust back if I see myself going out too fast. The rest I will run at the effort level I was hitting in some of bigger M/T/M workouts.  Plus in those first few miles I would not worry too much if you are a bit slower than goal pace (6:20's or so are probably even okay).  The crowding will help you out, even from corral 2 or so, and it is not worth it to serve around anyone this early in the race.  I would also love to be able to hammer those last 5 miles.  Obviously the last 2 years that was not an option (first year I struggled to finish and then last year we won't even mention).  I know it's really hard to do, but it would be a fantastic feeling to reel in so many runners in those last few miles.  Maybe that would mean giving up too much time in the miles beforehand.

               

              Biggest caveat is obviously going to be the weather which we should get a decent idea at something like 5-7 days out.

              5K: 16:44 (11/18)  |  10K: 34:30 (11/19)  |  HM: 1:17:15 (12/18)  |  FM: 2:48:58 (1/18)

              finbad


                Jmac - it's worth looking at the pace profile of people on strava running Boston around 2:40 in previous years.

                Upcoming; 14th Sep Scottish veterans XC trials, 289th Sep Great Scottish Run 1/2, 12th October TAMA half marathon, 27th October Leeds Abbey dash 10k

                slingrunner


                  For those that have run Boston before... do you feel people generally start, faster, slower, or at their presumed marathon goal pace for the first few miles?

                  5k- 18:55 (2018)    10K- 39:04 (2017)    Marathon- 3:00:10 (2018)

                  darkwave


                  Mother of Cats

                    For those that have run Boston before... do you feel people generally start, faster, slower, or at their presumed marathon goal pace for the first few miles?

                     

                    I can give no guidance based on my experience from last year.  I have been told that generally people start a bit hot - sucked out by the downhill and the fact that they are so much further back in the pack than they are used to being.

                    Everyone's gotta running blog; I'm the only one with a POOL-RUNNING blog.

                     

                    And...if you want a running Instagram where all the pictures are of cats, I've got you covered.

                    JMac11


                    Benevolent Leader

                      I've looked at people's splits before for NYC that run anything below 3, and I'd say 90%+ have positive splits over 2 minutes, so I try not to glean too much from that information.

                       

                      My official plan is to get out slower in mile 1, come through miles 2-4 at max speed of 5:55, and then just go with the flow and never allowing myself to crack 6:00.

                       

                      Weather - you shouldn't call it your humble opinion, it's your professional opinion!

                       

                      If anyone wants a sense of how much forecasts change, check out this LRC thread: https://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=8704382

                       

                      As of today's date last year, the weather forecast was as follows:

                       

                      Hopkinton - 
                      36/56 
                      Winds: WSW 15 mph
                      Gusts: 33 mph

                       

                      I mean, it was almost the exact opposite of that...

                      5K: 16:51 (8/19)  |  10K: 34:49 (10/19)  |  HM: 1:16:05 (10/19)  |  FM: 2:44:43 (4/19) 

                       

                      Next Race: California International Marathon (12/8/19)

                      finbad


                        According to The Pacing Project (and their basically unexplained API) this is the perfect Boston 2:40 pacing strategy

                         

                        Mile Pace (min/mile) Total Time
                        1 05:47 min/mile 00:05:47
                        2 05:58 min/mile 00:11:45
                        3 05:52 min/mile 00:17:38
                        4 05:55 min/mile 00:23:33
                        5 06:08 min/mile 00:29:42
                        6 06:00 min/mile 00:35:42
                        7 06:02 min/mile 00:41:45
                        8 06:05 min/mile 00:47:50
                        9 06:05 min/mile 00:53:56
                        10 06:10 min/mile 01:00:06
                        11 06:11 min/mile 01:06:18
                        12 06:01 min/mile 01:12:19
                        13 06:00 min/mile 01:18:19
                        14 06:05 min/mile 01:24:24
                        15 06:11 min/mile 01:30:35
                        16 05:49 min/mile 01:36:25
                        17 06:13 min/mile 01:42:38
                        18 06:12 min/mile 01:48:51
                        19 06:05 min/mile 01:54:56
                        20 06:11 min/mile 02:01:08
                        21 06:22 min/mile 02:07:30
                        22 05:51 min/mile 02:13:22
                        23 05:56 min/mile 02:19:18
                        24 05:56 min/mile 02:25:14
                        25 06:01 min/mile 02:31:16
                        26 06:05 min/mile 02:37:21
                        27 06:05 min/mile 02:40:00

                        Upcoming; 14th Sep Scottish veterans XC trials, 289th Sep Great Scottish Run 1/2, 12th October TAMA half marathon, 27th October Leeds Abbey dash 10k

                        Swim5599


                          According to The Pacing Project (and their basically unexplained API) this is the perfect Boston 2:40 pacing strategy

                           

                          Mile Pace (min/mile) Total Time
                          1 05:47 min/mile 00:05:47
                          2 05:58 min/mile 00:11:45
                          3 05:52 min/mile 00:17:38
                          4 05:55 min/mile 00:23:33
                          5 06:08 min/mile 00:29:42
                          6 06:00 min/mile 00:35:42
                          7 06:02 min/mile 00:41:45
                          8 06:05 min/mile 00:47:50
                          9 06:05 min/mile 00:53:56
                          10 06:10 min/mile 01:00:06
                          11 06:11 min/mile 01:06:18
                          12 06:01 min/mile 01:12:19
                          13 06:00 min/mile 01:18:19
                          14 06:05 min/mile 01:24:24
                          15 06:11 min/mile 01:30:35
                          16 05:49 min/mile 01:36:25
                          17 06:13 min/mile 01:42:38
                          18 06:12 min/mile 01:48:51
                          19 06:05 min/mile 01:54:56
                          20 06:11 min/mile 02:01:08
                          21 06:22 min/mile 02:07:30
                          22 05:51 min/mile 02:13:22
                          23 05:56 min/mile 02:19:18
                          24 05:56 min/mile 02:25:14
                          25 06:01 min/mile 02:31:16
                          26 06:05 min/mile 02:37:21
                          27 06:05 min/mile 02:40:00

                          Anyone in here covers mile 21 in 6:22 I’ll be pretty impressed

                          HM: 1/17 1:18:53. FM: 12/18 2:46:04

                          weatherboy80


                            Yikes - what a blazing fast first 5K?  Makes sense with the downhill, but I don't know of anyone (in my limited sample size) that has been able to sustain that time without falling apart later.  You'd also have to be really accustomed to lots of downhill quad banging on many of your runs during the training cycle to try and do this.  I'm definitely going out more conservative than this Wink  If that means giving up a minute or two oh well, but I want to be able to have actual legs left in those last 5-6 miles.  Also agree that if anyone is hitting anywhere near the low 6:20's at mile 21 they are having a very good day!

                             

                            And for reference last year my buddy and I were 10-12 seconds SLOWER in the first 2 miles than our avg pace the entire race.  This was mostly due to crowding coming from a few corrals back.

                            5K: 16:44 (11/18)  |  10K: 34:30 (11/19)  |  HM: 1:17:15 (12/18)  |  FM: 2:48:58 (1/18)

                            Swim5599


                              I think when it comes to Boston in ideal conditions, this question needs to be asked.  Could I run 2:38 mid to low on a flat track today?  If the answers yes then you gotta shot to break 2:40.  Breaking 2:40 is really hard,doing it in Boston is really really hard.

                              HM: 1/17 1:18:53. FM: 12/18 2:46:04

                              weatherboy80


                                Yup, pretty much agree with that which means a low to even perhaps mid 2:4x at Boston is likely close to a sub 2:40 effort on the flat elsewhere.  Of course if the weather is off a bit (which is more likely than not) then even this is also out the window.

                                5K: 16:44 (11/18)  |  10K: 34:30 (11/19)  |  HM: 1:17:15 (12/18)  |  FM: 2:48:58 (1/18)